GUEST WRITER/SCOUT: A “What If” Mock Draft – 2011 & 2012 QB Prospects Compared

Derek Stephens writes for NFL.com’s Blog Blitz, FieldGulls.com, is author/founder of thebluebirdherd.com and pro draft scout contributor NFLDraftScout.com and Lindy’s Draft Guide. He will be an occasional contributor to Hawk Blogger. Welcome aboard!


In evaluating the potential QB crop of the 2012 NFL Draft, one of the interesting, fun and relatively simple analyses to perform is to look at the previous year’s group at the same position, and try to project what order the selections would have fallen in had both groups been in the same draft.

Brian asked me to create a mock draft reflecting how I think the 2011 Draft may have gone if the 2012 QB prospects had been included in the pool.

It’s a round-a-bout way of comparing the two draft classes, but with the inserted twist of projecting which teams would have picked which players based on those teams’ philosophies and needs, had the whole pool of QBs between the two years been available at once.

For a draft geek like me, this was a pretty fun article.

First, a look at my pre-draft 2011 top-10 QB prospect rankings:

In my view, Locker, Gabbert and Kaepernick were taken way too high, and Mallett and Dalton dropped much further than they should have.

Cam Newton had the upside and intangible factor to go with once-in-a-generation size/athleticism/big-play ability combo that made him a non-reach, in my view, as the number one pick, although I didn’t have him rated the highest of the available QBs. Locker and Gabbert had clear decision-making issues and consistency problems throughout their college careers. Kaepernick was extremely unpolished as a passer, and played at a lower level of competition than the others.

Ponder and Dalton, on the other hand, displayed sound fundamentals, athleticism and consistent decision-making, which are the key traits I look for when projecting NFL talent at any position.

In looking at the potential 2012 class (I say “potential” because there are a number of underclassmen at the position who may/may not come out), here are my current QB rankings:

Andrew Luck is the clear front runner, with Matt Barkley a notch below. Both are smart, consistent passers who work with solid fundamentals and display a good understanding of defenses both pre and post-snap. Both guys have light feet, can avoid pressure, get the ball out quick and possess enough zip to make any and all of the throws.

While Luck is the clear frontrunner, I’m not as convinced that it’s by as large of a margin as some scouts, but hey, that’s nothing more than my interpretation watching the tape. Barkley does not have all the physical gifts that Luck does, but mentally and instinctively, they’re not too far apart in my view. Where Luck becomes really special is in his ability to make big plays in crucial situations with the game on the line, and do it with poise. It’s here where Barkley just isn’t on the same level yet, although he has definitely improved in how composed and poised he is under pressure.

As for the rest, Tannehill is a phenomenal athlete with good arm strength, improving accuracy, and the ability to buy time and make plays with his feet. He’s extremely dangerous outside of the pocket, and he is improving at a rapid pace, having barely started 10 college games at QB. He displays good poise and guts in the pocket, but the mental lapses do occur, and typically in bunches. With more coaching, considering the swiftness with which he has picked A&M’s pro style offense, he could become a starting NFL QB relatively quickly.

Landry Jones has a big arm, solid footwork, adequate accuracy and big-time toughness. He’s the prototype “pocket passer” of the group. Where he struggles is with his consistency from game to game. One week, you see a poised, pinpoint accurate signal-caller who appears virtually unstoppable. The next week, he could abandon his mechanics altogether, throw high and/or behind, hold the ball too long and lock on to receivers. He’s more on than off, though and there are obvious improvements being made mechanically. He could very well end up the second QB off the board in 2012.

Nick Foles has a big arm, and is more cerebral than he’s given credit for. After all, he has played a role in designing Arizona’s offensive plays, and is in full control of that group. His accuracy has improved and he’s getting the ball out quickly. Pretty agile/mobile for his size as well.

Robert Griffin III is a tremendous athlete who is still learning proper QB mechanics. He’s a smart football player though, who learns quickly and can make reads and adjustments at the line. He progresses nicely to a secondary target, and displays one of the better deep throws in the country.

Weeden is closing in on 30 years old, after trying to make it in baseball. One thing is clear though about Weeden – he has an absolute cannon for an arm, and all the confidence to go with it. This is also his biggest downfall though, as he’ll make bad reads or try to force a throw through too tight a space. He’s a bit heavy-footed and is a classic gunslinger, most effective inside the pocket.

Russell Wilson is one of my sleepers. Not that he lacks for attention. But as an NFL prospect, he’s been too quickly written off as a QB due to his shorter stature (5’11). I couldn’t care less. If a guy is accurate and consistent with good fundamentals, he has a chance to play NFL football, the QB position not excluded. Wilson is known mostly for what he does with his feet, but his strong accurate arm is often overlooked. He sets his feet, has a quick release, progresses through his options post-snap, consistently makes good decisions, and can lead his receiver. He’s smart, instinctive and deadly on the run, either throwing or tucking it.

Kirk Cousins is a good athlete with a good, but not great arm. He can make all of the short to mid range throws, and shows a respectable deep ball, but he struggles under pressure to the point of allowing his mechanics to fall apart completely when the rush is coming. He may be the most inconsistent QB of this group, and would probably crack this list’s top 5 if this weren’t such an issue. He’s mobile and a good thrower on the run.

Lindley, like Weeden, is the gunslinger type. He has a strong arm, and when he can set his feet, displays good accuracy to all areas of the field. His feet are heavy though, and he doesn’t move around in the pocket very well, leading him to throw off his back foot too often when under pressure. He’s not a guy who will buy a lot of extra time with a scramble, so he’ll rely more on his receivers and blockers to allow him to make plays.

Case Keenum is an extremely accurate, efficient QB with a knack for making big plays when they count. He’s smart, reads defenses, checks down and displays solid poise in the pocket. At 6’1, he’s a bit shorter than some scouts prefer so he could slip and be a value pick in the later rounds.

It’s not often you get to mock a draft that has already happened, but hey…first time for everything, right?

Considering the draft grades that I had on last year’s QB crop, and comparing those grades to the ones I have on 2012’s assumed group, here’s a mock of where I figure the two groups would order out, had the upcoming draft’s group of prospects been available last April. Keep in mind, this is not necessarily going by overall scouted value/rating for each guy, but we’re also considering team need and philosophy.