These are top 30 second-year quarterbacks, sorted by passer rating, in the history of pro football:
Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com |
The quarterbacks highlighted in blue started at least ten games in their rookie seasons. Some others played a few games as rookies, but did not start out the season as the designated starter. It should also be noted that this only includes second-year quarterbacks that started at least 10 games in their second year.
One of the first things I noticed was how few quarterbacks had great passer ratings in their second year. Only 18 players in the history of pro football have had a passer rating over 85.0 in their second season. The other interesting factor here is the age of some of these “second-year” players. Seven of the thirty were 26-years-old, or older, when they played their second year in the league.
To Scott’s question, only 12 of the top 30 second-year quarterbacks started at least ten games as rookies. Again, that does not mean they never played a snap. Some even played meaningful snaps (e.g., Jay Cutler started five games and played very well). The question, though, is whether history suggests quarterbacks are better off learning on the field their first season or observing. This data indicates teams have better odds of getting great production from their young quarterbacks if they allow them to at least begin their first season on the sidelines.
There is another way to interpret these results. Seven of the top eleven second-year quarterbacks did start as rookies. One could make the argument the highest possible passer ratings for second-year players come from guys who learned on the field as rookies.
Let’s look at this from another angle. Take the top twenty quarterbacks in the NFL last season, as determined by passer rating:
- Aaron Rodgers
- Drew Brees
- Tom Brady
- Tony Romo
- Mathew Stafford
- Matt Schaub
- Eli Manning
- Matt Ryan
- Alex Smith
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Philip Rivers
- Matt Moore
- Jay Cutler
- Michael Vick
- Cam Newton
- Matt Hasselbeck
- Kevin Kolb (!?)
- Joe Flacco
- Carson Palmer
- Andy Dalton