Clutch factor
Note: This includes the results from the weekend, but not Monday Night Football
Rank | Team | Clutch Factor |
1 | Atlanta | 3.28 |
2 | Denver | 3.26 |
3 | Indianapolis | 3.10 |
4 | Kansas City | 2.98 |
5 | Dallas | 2.94 |
6 | Green Bay | 2.86 |
7 | Chicago | 2.86 |
8 | Jacksonville | 2.85 |
9 | Oakland | 2.83 |
10 | NY Giants | 2.75 |
11 | New England | 2.68 |
12 | Washington | 2.68 |
13 | New Orleans | 2.67 |
14 | Detroit | 2.57 |
15 | Tampa Bay | 2.56 |
16 | San Francisco | 2.54 |
17 | Seattle | 2.50 |
18 | San Diego | 2.28 |
19 | Cleveland | 2.25 |
20 | Minnesota | 2.23 |
21 | Cincinnati | 2.17 |
22 | Miami | 2.10 |
23 | Baltimore | 2.04 |
24 | Tennessee | 1.95 |
25 | Pittsburgh | 1.89 |
26 | Houston | 1.87 |
27 | Philadelphia | 1.78 |
28 | NY Jets | 1.72 |
29 | St Louis | 1.56 |
30 | Arizona | 1.49 |
31 | Carolina | 1.39 |
32 | Buffalo | 1.30 |
Atlanta is ranked second in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage and first in red zone percentage. Denver is third in red zone, but 18th in 3rd down. The Broncos are helped by having three touchdowns in the final two minutes of a half. A team like New Orleans, that ranks highly in both third down and red zone conversions is hurt by not having any touchdowns at the end of a half. Every member of the top ten has at least two end of half touchdowns except for Atlanta (zero) and Chicago (one).
Seattle is well down the list because they are 11th in red zone percentage and 21st in third-down conversion percentage. They have one touchdown at the end of a half.
I wanted to see a different view of this number, so I created a separate index that factors in how many red zone chances a team gets.
Threat Factor
Rank | Team | Threat Factor |
1 | Indianapolis | 7.35 |
2 | NY Giants | 7.25 |
3 | New Orleans | 6.67 |
4 | Cleveland | 6.55 |
5 | Miami | 6.35 |
6 | Chicago | 6.11 |
7 | Baltimore | 5.99 |
8 | Seattle | 5.95 |
9 | Dallas | 5.94 |
10 | Green Bay | 5.86 |
11 | Denver | 5.81 |
12 | Washington | 5.63 |
13 | San Francisco | 5.54 |
14 | Tampa Bay | 5.51 |
15 | Atlanta | 5.48 |
16 | Kansas City | 5.48 |
17 | Cincinnati | 5.47 |
18 | San Diego | 5.28 |
19 | New England | 5.23 |
20 | Buffalo | 5.10 |
21 | NY Jets | 4.97 |
22 | Pittsburgh | 4.89 |
23 | Detroit | 4.82 |
24 | Minnesota | 4.78 |
25 | Philadelphia | 4.73 |
26 | Arizona | 4.49 |
27 | St Louis | 4.26 |
28 | Tennessee | 4.20 |
29 | Houston | 4.12 |
30 | Carolina | 3.89 |
31 | Oakland | 3.83 |
32 | Jacksonville | 3.55 |
I find this a more interesting measure. These are offenses that are not only playing good situational football, but are threatening the defense consistently by getting in the red zone a lot. Here, the weighting on red zone attempts and red zone efficiency helps Seattle rank 8th overall.
Tinkering and feedback