Russell Wilson will play yet another season opener in Lumen Field in prime time. This time, he will patrol the opposing sideline, wearing among the ugliest uniforms in the NFL as the new trigger man for the Denver Broncos. A Seahawks offseason and preseason that has mostly been devoid of energy and emotion, will ignite with life in a game that has meaning beyond the symbolic and sentimental. Every Broncos loss this year increases the value of the draft compensation Seattle received in return for Wilson. A win here not only would start this year off with a rousing upset over a polarizing former teammate, but improve the odds they can replace him next spring.
There are few teams in the NFL who have more secrets to unveil in week one than the Seahawks and Broncos. Denver has their new QB, a new head coach in Nathaniel Hackett, and some question marks on defense and offense as they said goodbye to Von Miller last season, Shelby Harris and Noah Fant in the Wilson trade, and have some injuries at wide receiver.
Seattle has a whole new defensive coaching staff, a rookie-laden offensive line, fresh corners, new pass rushers, an unpredictable starting running back, and a top draft pick from last season at receiver who has barely stepped on the field. The Seahawks looked mostly awful during the preseason, but their best players did not play. There was no DK Metcalf, Quandre Diggs, Jordyn Brooks, Jamal Adams, Tyler Lockett, or Rashaad Penny. Seattle came out with a bang in week one last season after following the same conservative approach to preseason when they played arguably their most complete game of the season in beating the Colts 28-12 in Indianapolis. They will likely need a similar start to win this game.
Denver enters as a big 6.5 point favorite, but I’m not convinced the right team is favored. This was a Broncos defense that struggled against the run last year facing a Seahawks offense that ended last year as one of the best rushing offenses in the league. It is a Broncos offense that undoubtedly has the better quarterback, but has some questionable weapons and a new system while facing a team that knows their quarterbacks limits more than anyone.
This is not a game where everything has to go right for Seattle to win. They need a strong running game, competent quarterback play, a solid pass rush, and decent coverage. The Seahawks may not be a great team this season, but I’m not convinced the Broncos are either. Look for a Seattle surprise Monday night.
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Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense
Broncos key advantages on defense
The Broncos said goodbye to longtime pass rusher Von Miller last season. They also lost Shelby Harris, their best interior rusher. Broncos fans will be happy to talk about signing Randy Gregory and DJ Jones, who are both good players, but is either as good as the player they replaced? Bradley Chubb was a great pass rusher as a rookie, when he finished with 12.0 sacks, but has not had more than 7.5 in a season since, and had the big goose egg last year while only playing 6 games. There are some good players there to test the young Seahawks line, but it is hard to say there are any dominant pass rushers.
Justin Simmons is a very good safety. Patrick Surtain II is a quality young corner.
Ejiro Evero is the new defensive coordinator. While so much has been made of the addition of Hackett to the Broncos offense, little has been said about the loss of Vic Fangio and the impact that may have on the Broncos defense.
The biggest advantage the Broncos have on defense is that Geno Smith is the Seahawks quarterback. That might be all they need. His tendency to take sacks can hamstring any offense. The other potential issue could be the young starting offensive tackles, and any first game jitters that translate into pre-snap penalties.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
The Broncos defense finished second in the NFL in points allowed last year, but ranked 26th in overall defense, according to ProFootballFocus. Miller and Simmons were the only starters to received a PFF rating over 70.0. Safety Kareem Jackson was a putrid 48.5 in coverage. Cornerback Ronald Darby was not much better at 58.7. Believe it or not, the Broncos ranked 31st in PFF pass rush grades.
There is potential for the Seahawks offensive line to lean on this Broncos defensive line and create holes for Penny, who was the most explosive running in the NFL over the final six weeks of last season.
We may finally get a chance to see Dee Eskridge utilized on jet sweeps, and nobody really knows how Seattle plans to deploy speedy Marquise Goodwin.
Metcalf has terrorized Darby in the past when he was in Philly. Seattle has weapons at tight end, receiver and running back. They have a solid offensive line. The biggest question here is Smith at quarterback.
Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Broncos key advantages on offense
Denver had a decent running game last year, keyed by a solid-if-not-spectacular offensive line and running backs like Melvin Gordon III. Garett Bolles is arguably their best lineman at left tackle, but he is not dominant. Billy Turner is set to play right tackle as one of their free agent additions from Green Bay, but he is coming off an injury.
Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are quality receivers who are sure to get the bulk of Wilson’s targets. The Seahawks cornerback room is jumbled a bit due to injuries. Artie Burns almost certainly won’t play, and Sidney Jones is at least a question mark. That could mean Michael Jackson and rookie Tariq Woolen could start. Justin Coleman may start at nickel and he was terrible during the preseason. If coverage is awful, little else will probably matter.
The biggest advantage could come over the middle against new linebacking duo Brooks and Cody Barton. The question is whether Wilson will exploit the short middle, where he usually is least likely to throw.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Tim Patrick was a big part of the offense and is out with a knee injury. Seattle will unveil a new pass rush crew that has the potential to be more disruptive than the Seahawks have had in years. Darrell Taylor is a handful. Uchenna Nwosu was productive off the edge last year. Boye Mafe flashed in his chances during the preseason. Shelby Harris has wreaked havoc in the middle for years, and can rotate with Quinton Jefferson who is always disruptive if not able to finish tackles.
My bet is the Seahawks pass rush will be at least modestly effective, with the potential to be the aspect of the game that turns the tide in Seattle’s favor.
The Seattle coaching staff knows Wilson well. It has been well publicized that Hackett has built the offense around what Wilson likes to do. Expect hurry up offense. Expect his favorite throws and routes. He has struggled against the defense the Seahawks are now playing. It will be a fun chess match to watch.
Special Teams
Eskridge will return punts, which provides some potential for entertainment when the opportunities arise. Jason Myers better not lose this game.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!
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