Sitting at 5-3 near the midpoint of the NFL season, atop the NFC West, the Seattle Seahawks are defying expectations in 2022. After trading away the franchise quarterback, cutting the leader of the defense, and opting for youth at key positions, the Seahawks were supposed to be starting a rebuild. The success to this point flies in the face of those expectations.
Heading into the season, the Seahawks had the 3rd lowest win total betting line at 5.5, a number they’re just one win from topping, with nine games to be played. The win total line now sits at 8.5, on par with the Rams and one game behind the 49ers at 9.5. There were pockets of optimism in the fanbase, perhaps the defense would improve under new coordinator Clint Hurtt, maybe the run game would continue to dominate as it did in the last six weeks of 2021. Instead, the defense has been fairly poor, improving in recent weeks, but not the strength of the team. The run game has been solid, with both Rashaad Penny, who is unfortunately injured and out for the remainder of the season, and Kenneth Walker finding ample success behind an improved offensive line. Yet it’s the passing game, led by Geno Smith, that has developed this offense into a machine.
The Geno Smith breakout season is one of the best storylines in the NFL, bar none. Geno currently ranks 4th in QBR, 7th in expected points added (EPA) per play, 3rd in PFF passing grade, and 1st in completion percentage over expected (CPOE). In other words, both measures of efficiency and film-based grading have Geno in the mix with the best QBs in the league. Not only is he playing exceptionally well, but his performance isn’t fluky.
There are always a few things to question when a QB drastically improves or finds a hot streak. First, is he doing something unsustainable? Generally, performance while under pressure is less stable than performance from a clean pocket. On the season, Geno ranks 8th in PFF passing grade while under pressure, solid, but not tearing it up (good news for sustainability). Second, is he hitting tons of deep shots and explosive plays that are subject to greater variance? On passes traveling at least 20 yards downfield, he’s 6th in completion percentage at 48%. Again, a good number, but not an outlier that cannot be maintained. The one area ripe for a little bit of regression would be turnovers. Geno currently has 10 turnover worthy plays per PFF, but has only thrown three interceptions.
Putting the pieces together, Geno is performing well in a mostly sustainable way. For starters, Shane Waldron deserves a heck of a lot of credit. Waldron was doubted during the 2021 season but has struck gold this season with Geno Smith at the helm, potentially opening the playbook even more than he could with Russell. At this point, Waldron will be on shortlists for head coaching searches in January. Offensive line coach Andy Dickerson also deserves praise for developing the line into a solid pass protecting unit.
One of the reasons Geno is having such success is the improved pass protection. The Seahawks currently rank 5th in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric. This is made more impressive by the fact they’re starting two rookies who’ve proven themselves to be more than capable. The line isn’t the end all be all however, quarterbacks own some (or even most) of the responsibility for sacks and pressures. Per NextGenStats, Geno is getting the ball out in 2.77 seconds on average, compare that to Russell Wilson’s 2.97 in 2020. While two tenths of a second feels small it can make a difference. With a better pass protecting line and the ball getting out on time, Geno is on pace to be sacked 40 times this season. For reference, Russell was sacked an average of 48 times per season from 2018-2020. Again, not a drastic difference, but a minor improvement in an important area to keep drives from falling apart.
Coming into the season, it wouldn’t have been surprising if the Seahawks opted for a run heavy approach after losing their franchise quarterback. Instead, the Seahawks are passing 61% of the time in neutral situations, the 5th highest rate in the league. This is the 2nd highest neutral situation pass rate the Seahawks have had under Pete Carroll.
Unsurprisingly, the offense also looks different than it did last season. Personnel is trending towards more 12 (1 RB, 2 WR, and 2 TE) and less 11 (1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE). The Rams/McVay offense has lived out of 11 personnel historically, and in Waldron’s first season the Seahawks offense were in 11 personnel 65% of the time. Flip to 2022, that rate has shrunk to 46%, with significant increases in both 12 and 13 (3 TEs) personnel. They’re finding success with all three tight ends on the field, averaging .28 EPA per dropback, more than double their overall mark of .12 EPA per dropback. The sample sizes are on the small side for major takeaways in terms of success, but the trend in usage is clear.
A change in personnel also comes with a change in the parts of the field they are attacking. More underneath usage shouldn’t be a surprise, Russell was one of the best deep ball passers in the game and made it a staple of his game. Geno, by contrast, is more balanced. His average depth of target stands at 8.2 for the season, more than a yard and a half less than Russell’s 9.9 last season. Not only does this make throws more likely to be completed, it also shows a willingness to take what is there and stay within structure. Geno’s pass rate beyond 20 yards falls off rapidly, while peaking higher than Russell did in the short to intermediate areas.
Pete Carroll has done a remarkable job this season. In the offseason, he made it public he wanted to Geno to come back, while I don’t think he knew Geno would be this good, credit is due. The 2022 draft may well be remembered as the reason the Seahawks were able to bounce back so quickly from losing their franchise QB. Two starting tackles, two starting cornerbacks, a promising edge rusher, and of course, a running back with burst and change of direction as good as anyone. While I don’t like using such a high pick on a running back, as data and even anecdotally the Seahawks have shown, successful running backs can be found in the later rounds, Kenneth Walker is undoubtedly an exciting runner.
The Seahawks are feeling themselves at the moment, rightfully so. They are in the hunt for a playoff spot and the schedule looks manageable to be in the thick of things come December. With the QB situation potentially resolved for the forseeable future and likely four top 50 draft picks next year (one of which could be used for a QB regardless), there’s reason to believe the “rebuild” may be more of a retuning.