Seattle enters this game against the 6-1 New York Giants as small favorites (-1 to -3, depending on book). This is arguably the first time all season they should be favored to win a game. The last time they were favored was back against the Falcons in week three, and that did not work out so well. Vegas and the betting public have been rightly skeptical of the Seahawks, but things got out of hand last week when they opened as 7.5 point underdogs to the Chargers. That is essentially predicting a blowout as far as point spreads are concerned. They got the blowout part right at least.
Seattle is playing a different brand of football the past two weeks with what appears to be a significantly improved defense and an increasingly effective run game. Where the most optimistic hope was that the Seahawks defense could eliminate some of the big plays and become a defense ranked in the 18-25 range, Seattle has given reason to reconsider their ceiling. A group that was ranked 31st in the NFL in defensive efficiency (DVOA) through five weeks, ranked 1st in the last two weeks. Not 15th. Not Top 10. First.
The offense has been consistently good most of the year. The defense and special teams have limited the team’s aspirations. Suddenly, they look like a handful for just about anyone.
Meanwhile, the Giants boast a glittering 6-1 record, but are one of the biggest paradoxes in the league. They rank dead last in PFF overall grades (32 of 32). They are 29th in defensive efficiency, 25th in yards per play allowed, dead last in yards per rush allowed, give up a ton of explosive plays, are one of the least prolific pass offenses in the league, give up sacks at a dizzying rate, and have the general profile of a team that should have won 3 or 4 games at best.
Their six wins have come against some decent opponents. They beat the Ravens, the Packers, and the Titans, and narrowly lost to the Cowboys. They have not scored more than 27 points in a game, but have somehow not allowed more than 23 despite all the defensive holes.
They have done it by possessing the football 4th most in the league, controlling the ball with a great run game, limiting turnovers, and being just stingy enough on 3rd downs and in the red zone to hold opponent scores down.
A few weeks ago it would be easy to see how the Giants could just lean on their explosive run game to beat with the hapless Seahawks defense. Now, there is reason to believe Seattle has the advantage there and that if they can simply slow the run game of the Giants, they could win this game comfortably.
Only one team has held the Giants run game down, and that was the Ravens. They were in perfect position to win the game before Lamar Jackson threw an interception at the end that the Giants offense turned into a winning touchdown.
This is a well coached team that is overachieving. Seattle has a better quarterback, offensive line, tight ends, receivers (whether DK Metcalf plays or not), and are possibly a push at running back. Seattle has a better run defense and pass defense and pass rush. This is a game the Seahawks should win. Six previous Giants opponents probably thought the same thing. I still like Seattle in this one.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
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Seahawks Offense vs Giants Defense
Giants key advantages on defense
New York has some flash players on the defensive line. Specifically, their interior linemen are strong. Dexter Lawrence is having a great year, and is playing as well as any interior linemen in the NFL. Leonard Williams is a great parter inside. They will challenge the Seahawks guards and center.
Seattle has not faced many defensive tackles that are this disruptive so far. JJ Watt may be the closest, and he caused some issues. If Phil Haynes and Gabe Jackson are unavailable, this could be a major problem.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
This game has some rare 1 vs 32 matchups. That is, Seattle is ranked 1st in the NFL in yards per rush. The Giants are ranked 32nd, or dead last. Seattle is ranked 4th in explosive rushes. The Giants are ranked 31st in stopping explosive rushes. It also features a 1 vs 1 matchup where the Seahawks are tops in completion percentage and the Giants are first in limiting completions.
The Giants linebackers and safeties are not good. Seattle should be able to get their tight ends involved a lot in this one. Kenneth Walker III will get some chances to break more big runs. This game could be very tight if Seattle cannot block the interior linemen of the Giants and are unable to convert third downs. It could be a solid win if they do.
Giants Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Giants key advantages on offense
It is pretty much Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones as a runner. Those are the Giants advantages. They lost their rookie right tackle last week. They also lost their left guard and their rookie tight end.
Jones is a bad passer with poor judgment, but is a dangerous runner. Kyler Murray ran for 100 yards against Seattle, even when the defense was playing well. Taysom Hill destroyed the Seahawks defense. It is just as important that Seattle stops Jones as a runner as it is that they stop Barkley. There will be no surprises, though, as the Seahawks know what Jones will be doing Sunday.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
We have seen real improvement on run defense, in particular, the last two weeks. Gaps are closing. Tackling has been much better. The changes on the Giants offensive line should create some opportunity for tackles behind the line. Everyone will need to contribute to containing Barkley and Jones. This is a game for Jordyn Brooks to shine. Look for Bruce Irvin to get some significant snaps as well given his strength against the run.
Should Jones choose to pass, there should be opportunities for the young Seattle secondary to add to their takeaway total.
Special Teams
The Giants have an excellent kicker. Field position could be a big factor and Seattle needs their special teams to be a positive in this game, or at least avoid the crippling mistakes.
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