My eyes widened when I saw the spread for this game. The Los Angeles Chargers opened as 7.5 point favorites and were holding at 7.0 as this is written. Vegas and the betting public seeing the Chargers as massive favorites over the Seahawks would not have given me a second of pause heading into the season. Seattle, after all, was entering a low expectation season focused on development of young players and quarterback room that was considered the worst in the league. The Chargers were Super Bowl contenders, with marquee additions on defense and one of the best young QBs in football.

Injuries have taken a bit out of the Chargers. Whirlwind pass rusher Joey Bosa is out. Quarterback Justin Herbert has been a different player since breaking cartilage in his ribs a few weeks back. Their starting left tackle, Rashawn Slater, was lost for the year.

Meanwhile in Seattle, Geno Smith has emerged as a quality starting quarterback, who has bettered Herbert in almost every passing metric. The developing rookie class has been precocious, with five starters, and a few different guys who could wind up as defensive and offensive rookie of the year candidates. Seattle has had an atrocious defense, but it just played its best game by holding Arizona to 3 points. Special teams has been a dumpster fire, but the Chargers will be without their kicker who was injured while beating the Broncos (thank you!).

The Chargers should be favored in this game, but the logic of them being runaway favorites is flawed and seems fueled by perception. Seattle can win this game if the get a quality game from Smith while facing his former team, a solid defensive performance, and avoid fatal mistakes on special teams. My best guess is Herbert and company will find enough holes in the defense, and the Chargers pass rush will cause enough problems to give them the win.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

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Seahawks Offense vs Chargers Defense

Chargers key advantages on defense

Derwin James and Khalil Mack are blue chip players. Those two may be enough to create problems for the Seahawks offense. Seattle will need to plan to give Abraham Lucas help against Mack. Although, Lucas held up well against Cameron Jordan.

LA likes to blitz, and is good about disguising and timing. Kenneth Walker III will need to be on his assignments in pass protection, which is a lot to ask of a rookie making his second start.

James is a playmaker at every level and every aspect of the defense. Asante Samuel Jr. and J.C. Jackson are quality corners who have not had terrific years so far.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The Chargers rank 18th in the NFL in defending #1 receivers, 2nd in defending #2 receivers, 27th in defending #3-4 receivers, 22nd against tight ends, and 24th against running backs. In other words, their are yards to be gained despite their decent 14th overall rating in DVOA for pass defense.

Before giving up 16 points to the hapless Broncos, the Chargers had surrendered:

• 28 at CLE
• 24 at HOU
• 38 vs JAX
• 27 at KC

Their run defense has been suspect, giving up 131, 151, and 213 yards rushing to their last three opponents. Seattle has the weapons to give the Chargers trouble. They need Smith to make the right reads at the line and the offensive line to bounce back after a rough week at home.

This may be a game where Dee Eskridge can have a big impact.

Chargers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Chargers key advantages on offense

It is unclear if Keenan Allen will return from injury. Were he to make it back, the combination of Allen and Mike Williams would be the best receiving duo the Seahawks secondary would have faced all year, while facing the best QB they have seen all year. Gerald Everett might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back as Seattle does not have good matchups to face fast and strong tight ends. Donald Parham is dangerous as well.

Corey Linsley was out against the Broncos due to food poisoning, so you would expect him back. Austin Ekeler is a tough runner and quality receiver out of the backfield.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle will hopefully get Al Woods back, and if they can keep the defensive line active, they can limit the rushing yardage for the Chargers. The Seahawks have very little chance of winning if the Chargers can run the ball in this game.

There are holes in the offensive line, but Herbert gets sacked the least of any QB in the game, as a percentage of pass attempts.

Special Teams

Another opponent missing their starting kicker faces Seattle this week. LA already goes for it on fourth down more than any team. That will put extra pressure on the defense to stop the Chargers for four plays, but also presents chances to keep points off the board or gain great field position for the offense.

Eskridge returning kicks could be interesting as the Chargers are one of the worst kick coverage teams in the game.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!

Thanks to Sarah and Chris Rood for sponsoring this series!