Imagine being a fan of the Detroit Lions. Decade after decade of misery is only partially interrupted by the brilliance of individual players like Barry Sanders or Calvin Johnson. You finally get your franchise quarterback, only to see him win a ring in his first season with another team. Your team is featured on Hard Knocks and becomes one of the more lovable squads the show has introduced to the world, your offense explodes onto the scene against some quality competition, but still loses some close games. Without your best offensive players, your team puts up over 500 yards and scores 45 points, and manages to lose to Geno Smith and the Seahawks. The thing is, Smith is no longer a punch line. More than Lions fans will be shaking their heads if Smith continues his standard of play.
The NFL is a bloodsport, on and off the field. Players get precious few chances to earn reps on the practice field, and in games. Those who make it into the bright lights of game day are sifted and categorized rapidly by how they stack up to the highest level of competition. Players who are deemed unworthy are dismissed into the shadows. Smith is one of those players.
He was a second round pick of the New York Jets who started for two seasons and did nothing to indicate he should be considered a starting quarterback in the NFL. He threw 21 interceptions as a rookie (and only 12 touchdowns), and 13 more in his second season. He completed less than 60% of his passes both years. He posted passer ratings of 66.5 and 77.5. NFL front offices watched and determined this was a backup at best, and most did not even see him as worth a backup roster spot.
Smith bounced around NFL rosters from the Jets to the Giants to the Chargers to the Seahawks. He crossed into his 30s having played 11 games in six years, mostly in mop-up duty or a few snaps for an injured starter. When he finally did get a chance to start for a few games in a row, he was 31 years old, and wound up 1-2, with his only win against the hapless Jaguars. He had a DUI later that year, and then was put into a QB competition with Drew Lock that many expected him to lose.
Players do not come back from that in the NFL. The closest comparable story I can think of would be Kurt Warner. In some ways, Smith’s story is more remarkable as he has been hiding in plain sight on a roster the whole time.
Every single fan, coach, and front office member in and around the NFL is thinking the same thing right now: let’s not get ahead of ourselves. He has to prove it for a full season.
NFL priors are not dropped lightly. Should Smith play wonderfully this season, everyone will demand to see it again next season. Smith has been labeled as a loser and bad player. Any mistake he makes, any incompletion he throws, will be pointed out as confirmation that everyone was right about him all along, and this “hot streak” is a mirage.
But what if it isn’t? Smith now has 5 straight starts where he has completed at least 72% of his passes while passing at least 24 times. There is only one quarterback in the history of football who has had a longer streak. Drew Brees did it 8 straight times from 2017-2018. He is the second ranked passer in the NFL by PFF grades. He is lapping the field in completion rate over expected (and advanced stat you can see in the pic below). He is third in passer rating, right behind Patrick Mahomes. He is 6th in QBR.
Smith is not making the case that he is a starter in the NFL. He is making the case that he is a franchise quarterback, and is at least on the fringes of a conversation about MVP.
Roll your eyes. Throw up your hands in disgust. Snort. Guffaw. I get it. Here’s the truth, though: if his name was Tom Brady or Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen and had the same numbers, he would be right in the heart of the MVP race. If he continues this a full season and the Seahawks somehow made the playoffs, he would absolutely be deserving of consideration.
We can debate how likely that is, but his level of play is not really debatable. Only clear bias would keep someone from acknowledging how good Smith has been. We have never seen anything like the story that is unfolding here. You still have a chance to buy low as a fan. Stop fighting it. Just enjoy it.
One thing that had been missing from this offense was a run game. Smith even helped there against the Lions. He changed plays at the line on a 3rd and 14 to a draw that resulted in a long touchdown run by Rashaad Penny. He ran for 49 yards of his own, including another check at the line where he rolled to the left for an easy first down, and took a QB draw in for a touchdown.
Penny had two long touchdown runs and might have had a third if not for tripping along the sideline. This offense can trade blows with just about anyone if they have a running game to compliment the efficiency of Smith passing.
They need to be able to do it against quality defenses. Detroit is certainly not that. They have to start somewhere, though, and putting up 235 yards on the ground is a great way to do it.
With touchdown runs of 36 and 41 yards, Penny moved into second place in franchise history with 7 touchdown runs of 30+ yards, behind only Shaun Alexander who had nine. He has 5 of those big play touchdowns in the last two seasons. The next closest player in the NFL has just two (6 players are tied at 2).
Penny is a redemption story like Smith, albeit far earlier in his career. Even after Penny exploded to end last season, doing things that few running backs had ever done over a 4-5 game span, he was not highly sought after as a free agent and returned to Seattle on a one-year deal for a modest salary.
Whispers started anew after his start to the 2022 season was not nearly as flashy as what we witnessed last year. He silenced those for at least another week by putting up 151 yards on 8.9 yards per carry.
Will Dissly got a bigger payday than Penny as a free agent, and the deal was mocked around the league and among Seahawks fans. All Dissly has done is catch every pass thrown to him this season, 12 catches in 12 targets, and turned three of those into touchdowns to lead all tight ends in the NFL in that category.
Abe Lucas was overlooked in the draft, and has become a solid starting right tackle who is showing signs his ceiling could be extremely high.
It often takes a combination of known and unknown talent coming together to produce a special unit. Whether it is Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas or Doug Baldwin and Marshawn Lynch, the pattern tends to repeat.
This offense has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. It also has a #9 overall pick at left tackle in Charles Cross. People expect much of those players and they are meeting those expectations.
Metcalf had one of his most professional games this Sunday. His yards were gaudy at 149 for the game, but it was how he got them that was most impressive. He continues to demonstrate growth in contested catching. My favorite play of his in this game was the catch along the left sideline where he was hand-fighting with the corner and used his length and strength to hold off the corner with one arm while hauling in the pass with the other. That is the work of a craftsman, not just an athlete.
I could honestly go on and on about what we saw from this offense that did not punt for the first time in franchise history, gave up zero sacks, converted 9 of 12 third downs, including a 3rd and 5 run play to finally ice it, but I have spend a few sentences on the defense.
Nobody will want to hear it, but I am going to say it anyway. The defense showed signs of improvement. The tackling was better. The run defense was better. They had the first defensive touchdown in over two years and caused another turnover.
This game may have gone differently if Lockett had not fumbled the first punt after the defense held Detroit to 3 and out on the first series, and then given up another first on a fake punt after the defense held the Lions to another 3 and out on the second series. Even with those gut punches, the defense played reasonably well in the first quarter.
Then we saw some of the same faces creating some of the same mess. Cody Barton and Josh Jones are killing this team with their poor tackling. This group is not nearly talented enough to make up for blown assignments, shoddy tackling, or just plain laziness.
Barton has an odd following on Seahawks Twitter of folks who insist he is a good player. Good players make good plays. They impact games in ways even the average fan can appreciate. I value linebackers who make plays in the gaps and in the backfield. Barton almost never does either.
He spends much of the game failing to get off blocks and then making tackles downfield while being dragged by the offensive player. He had multiple plays in this game that were worthy of being benched.
He did not get proper depth in zone coverage on a 2nd and 23 deep in the Lions territory and allowed a critical first down. He was completely lost on a two-point conversion attempt where Jared Goff strolled by him into the end zone. Worst of all, he lazily tried to just shove T.J. Hockenson out of bounds on a long pass play, only to see Hockenson stay in bounds and run all the way inside the 5-yard line.
Seattle might have benched him but they did nothing to create any competition or depth at the spot this offseason so Nick Bellore is their main option. It remains a bizarre oversight. Something needs to be done. Now.
Jones missed numerous tackles in this game and also dropped a simple interception late that allowed Detroit to attempt a 4th and 9 that they converted and eventually scored. I understood what the team saw in Jones, who appears a better athlete than someone like Ryan Neal, but it is not working.
There are some decent safeties on the market. Get one. They might be bad, but what you have is already awful. Different bad might be better.
Seattle has one of the best offense and one of the worst defenses in the league. They have played two good offenses and two good defenses. They are 2-2.
What we are seeing on offense appears to be sustainable. Smith is finding out what the defense is doing and adjusting at the line. That will not go away. The combination of Smith, Waldron, and unheralded offensive line coach Andy Dickerson is gelling perfectly. This offensive line should get better.
The defense will not be good this year. Can they go from bottom three to bottom 10-12? Maybe. That would have to come from scheme adjustments, and a few new players, plus development of young guys. Tre Brown will be back at some point and could help. John Rhattigan might come back, and could be an option at linebacker. Veteran free agents might come in and help at safety and linebacker.
Should the offense remain a top ten unit and the defense finds a way to start allowing less than 25 points per game, the Seahawks could climb to around .500 or slightly better. That is probably their ceiling. If the defense stays this bad, and the offense regresses even a little, they still could be stuck around the 4-6 win range.
One thing we already know is Geno Smith has made this season far more entertaining than any of us could have reasonably hoped. We now get to settle in with front row seats to what could be the most dramatic underdog story in the NFL this year. I can root for that.