Anyone who has ever remodeled part of their house is familiar with the sensation of being simultaneously thrilled with the look of the new work while also having a heightened awareness of the parts of the house that feel older and need attention. Such is the state of the Seattle Seahawks. Young players are shining across the roster, along with sterling QB play, making the talent deficit in other parts of the roster all the more glaring. The team lost a game they very clearly should have won on Sunday. An emerging core should have fans looking at the big picture where the arrow is pointing up.
So many fans were angry yesterday, including me. That, by itself, is a minor victory. There was a good chance this team was going to be irrelevant, uninteresting, and ignored by this point in the season. Instead, they have been highly entertaining.
Geno Smith continues to be in the conversation for best QB in the NFL this season. Yep. I said it. He is ranked 1st in passer rating, PFF grade, and completion rate over expected (CPOE). He ranks 4th in the ESPN QBR metric. He ranks 3rd in CPOE + EPA. If his name were Aaron Rodgers or Josh Allen or Dak Prescott or Justin Herbert, he would be number one or number two on everyone’s MVP list. He has been that good.
The new accomplishment in this game was doing it against a top ten defense. New Orleans entered the game with a defense that ranked 10th in yards per play allowed, 11th in DVOA, 11th in opponent passer rating, 11th in yards per rush, 7th in 3rd down defense, 5th in completion rate, and so on. They have been done in primarily by a deluge of turnovers by their offense and special teams.
Smith blew the Saints defense up with explosive play after explosive play. There was a 50-yard TD to DK Metcalf. Precision strikes of 35 and 40 yards for touchdowns to Tyler Lockett were as pretty as you will see. Noah Fant joined the party this week with a 32 yard catch early. All those explosives helped Smith finish with a gaudy 10.7 yards per pass attempt.
He was able to do this because his rookie tackles played a darn good game. Yes, Smith was sacked three times, a season high. Arguably, each one of those were due to decisions Smith made to hold onto the ball.
Abe Lucas and Charles Cross were going up against a formidable pair of defensive ends in Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport in a raucous road dome. They more than held their own. The two touchdowns to Lockett were works of art that started with the tackles running their guys around the circle and Smith stepping up into the pocket that was created. It is a symbiotic relationship.
There would be a different feeling among fans about these rookie tackles if their quarterback was breaking the pocket or holding the ball for long periods of time or missing checks at the line of scrimmage. Smith would not be experiencing this renaissance if his rookie tackles were getting manhandled at the snap, creating instant pressure before he could scan the field and hit the top of his drop.
Those three players, plus the proven greatness of Metcalf and Lockett, plus the solid play of the tight ends, make this a sustainable offensive formula. How good has the offense been? They rank 1st in the NFL in offensive efficiency (DVOA) by Football Outsiders through five weeks of the season.
I know everyone is pissed about the defense. They should be. That frustration should not cloud their view of what is incredibly good news on offense. The absolute only thing that would make things brighter on offense was if Smith was 10 years younger and on a rookie contract. Really, if he just had a different name and different reputation.
Imagine if Deshaun Watson had never done all those awful things off the field and the Seahawks had acquired him this offseason and he was performing at this level. People would feel completely different. Even if Russell Wilson was still here, putting up these numbers, how many people would be screaming for a top pick to be spent on a QB next year? Smith is two years younger than Wilson.
There will be many who will always doubt Smith because of how his career started, even if he plays at this level the rest of this season and all of next season. Seattle can benefit from that irrationality. Smith will not command top dollar on the free agent market. There is a case to be made that the team would be wise to negotiate an extension now, while the price would be even lower.
I still believe the best thing for Seattle to do would be to pick a top young QB if one falls to them in the draft, but I no longer believe the team should trade up at all costs to secure one. If blue chip defensive linemen fall to Seattle because the QBs get picked early, and maybe even if someone offers a draft pick haul to move up for one of Seattle’s picks, I can think of worse outcomes than spending two early first round picks on the defensive line, and rolling with Smith for 2-3 years.
This could still all end up looking ridiculous in a few weeks if Smith crashes back to earth. I just don’t see why it would happen. Seattle now has a quarterback that has a combination of Hasselbeck’s ability to diagnose at the line of scrimmage and be well liked in the locker room, with Wilson’s ability to throw the rock. It is going to be very hard to find someone who can play the position better than Smith has through five weeks.
Another rookie contributed to the offensive firepower this week, as Kenneth Walker III had his first big play of his career. He burst through a hole and took it 69 yards for a touchdown. That was the longest touchdown run for a Seahawks rookie since the 72-yarder from CJ Prosise in 2016. Walker was not touched on the well-blocked play, but that was partially due to a wonderful cutback and read, as well as breakaway speed.
The team will need him as Rashaad Penny was likely lost for the year with a broken tibia. It was absolutely awful to see Penny lost again after he finally had found his place among the best backs in the NFL. Running back depth is an issue as Travis Homer is already out with an injury.
Walker and DeeJay Dallas figure to get all the snaps, with some players elevated off the practice squad or possibly a free agent signed off the streets or another practice squad. Denver signed Latavius Murray off the Saints practice squad just last week.
Walker is not really ready to be a starter when it comes to pass protection or decisiveness in hitting the hole. This experience, though, will accelerate his development. If he is the runner many believe him to be, he will make a positive impact nonetheless.
Other rookie standouts were on the other side of the ball. Tariq Woolen had an interception for the third straight week. He also recovered a fumble. That fumble was caused by Coby Bryant. It was the second straight week Bryant caused a fumble.
Woolen is looking like a guy with a blue chip ceiling. We may be witnessing the emergence of an All-Pro level corner. He leads all rookies in interceptions and passer rating allowed (40.2). In fact, he is 4th among all NFL CBs in passer rating allowed and is tied for the lead in interceptions.
He is the only player in NFL history, at any position, to have 3 INTs, including a pick-six, and a fumble recovery in his first five games as a rookie. He also has blocked a field goal. Imagine what he will be capable of when the game slows down for him, he starts to get the respect of the referees, and knows player tendencies better.
Bryant does not have the flashy stats, but I believe he will work out fine. The touchdown pass thrown against him was not a catch by my rules, if not the NFL’s shifting catch definition. He did a great job getting his arm in there and separating the ball from the receiver as they hit the turf.
So much goodness, how did the Seahawks lose?
It starts with the atrocious special teams performance that includes a botched punt, a missed extra point, and multiple penalties that got the Saints out from the shadow of their end zone. It includes a series of highly questionable calls from the refs, with a fumble call against Metcalf on the first possession of the second half at the top of the list. And it ends with a defense that failed to stop the one player, running mostly the same play, for a whole game.
The punchable face of Taysom Hill may only be eclipsed by the punchable face of the Astros Alex Bregman, who the Mariners now get to face in the ALDS (Go M’s!!). He was at his smug peak in this game as the Seahawks looked shocked every time he ran the ball around the left side. Over and over and over again for three touchdowns.
Interestingly, the blame for the issue revealed itself a bit in the postgame interviews. Quandre Diggs admitted that they had not prepared much for that aspect of the Saints offense as New Orleans had not used it much. Diggs said they should have adjusted, so he was not pointing fingers, but the implication was the coaching staff was caught flat-footed.
Pete Carroll confirmed that a bit in his postgame comments, saying the Saints had not used it much this year, and then backpedalled a bit to say that it was nothing the team had not seen before.
I saw two coaching stories in this game on defense.
First, I saw continued improvement in the playing of the new scheme. Tackling was better again. There was better push upfront in the run game and in pass rush. The inside linebackers were finally finishing tackles going toward the opposing end zone instead of falling back and being dragged. Explosive plays were down. The team was caught on a screen pass to Alvin Kamara and there was the Hill clinching touchdown. There were just one other play over 20 yards.
Second, I saw a staff that got badly out-coached for no good reason. Even if you were surprised by Hill’s usage in the first half, he should have been a much smaller factor in the second half. That should be a simple adjustment. Blame the players for not making tackles, sure, but the team still looked out of position and unsuspecting of what was coming.
Absolutely nobody wants to hear it, but this defense took a step forward this week. I see a huge talent deficit on that side of the ball that is not going to be addressed this season. The only hope is to play more sound defense and tackle better. Their ceiling is to be a 20th-23rd ranked defense this season instead of a bottom two.
Even with the best coaching in the world and the best discipline and tackling, they will struggle to get pass pressure and control the line of scrimmage. The defensive line is arguably the worst in the league. The front seven is arguably the worst in the league. There is not a lot that can be done from a coaching standpoint when those guys are outclassed against so many opponents.
That is why there will be mounting pressure to use both first round picks on defense next year. That is why this team has a ceiling on their ambitions this year, even if the offense remains the best in football. All that said, we are nearing a game where the special teams does not fumble punt returns or punt attempts or give up first downs on fake punts, and the refs do not make massive and highly questionable calls in favor of opponents, and this defense might just hold a team to less than 25 points.
This team is fun to watch. It reminds me more of the 2002 Seahawks than the 2011 team. That squad had it’s own quarterback who had been counted out, and a coach on his last leg. Hasselbeck had been benched after Seattle traded for him and tried him as a starter. Trent Dilfer took over and did some good things, but the defense was overpowered. Dilfer was injured in the 8th week of the season against the Cowboys and Hasselbeck was forced back on the field. He never looked back.
The offense took off. They finished the season with five games over 400 yards, three games over 500 yards, and scored over 30 points in four of their final six games. After starting 1-5, they finished 7-9. That was enough to keep Holmgren on as coach. Although, he was stripped of his GM duties.
Seattle went 10-6 the next year, and the foundation was set that led to the first Super Bowl team in franchise history three years later. They knew their offense was great. They needed a “good enough” defense. A few key acquisitions and draft picks, like Lofa Tatupu, was enough to become what should have been a Super Bowl champion.
This defense does not need to be the LOB. They already have at least one great draft pick on defense in Woolen. Add a blue chip player to that defensive line. Make the right free agent signings. Spend three of four top 45 picks next year on defense. This group could be contending in a very weak NFC as soon as next season.
For now, the focus is on continued development of the youngsters and sustained elite play of the quarterback. The renovations look wonderful. Keep the guests out of the rest of the house for a while.