The honeymoon period of the Seahawks season is over. They began with rock bottom expectations, delighted fans with sustained periods of high quality play on both sides of the ball, and now lost a key game against a mediocre team that has left them out of first place for the first time in a few weeks. While sharing the same record as the 49ers, the Seahawks do not own the tiebreaker and will need to outplay their rivals the rest of the way to win the division. No easy task.

Other NFC teams, like the Commanders, are starting to pick up their level of play, making a wild card far from a sure thing. What is clear is the Seahawks cannot lose any more games against weak opponents and hope to see this fairy tale have a happy ending.

Enter the Las Vegas Raiders. Our heroes for beating the Denver Broncos twice, including in overtime last week, the Raiders come into Seattle with a 3-7 record. Their three wins have come against Denver and the lowly Houston Texans. A pushover, right? Well, they lost to the Chiefs in Kansas City by one point, in Tennessee by two points, and on the road against the fully healthy Chargers in week one by five points. They also just played their best game of the season, according to DVOA.

They are best in the NFL at protecting the football, while worst at taking it away. Their quarterback is adept at quick passes and avoiding turnovers. Their running back is one of the very best in the league. They boast an elite pass rusher and one of the league’s best wide receivers. As far as pushovers go in the NFL, this is not one to overlook.

This game will be decided by two things: the play of Geno Smith, and whether the Seahawks run defense from Munich is a trend or an aberration. This is a porous secondary with limited pass rush. Seattle should be able to move the ball and score points in this game. That becomes harder if the Raiders are able to control the ball due to a limp Seahawks run defense. This is one Seattle should win. It also their first game under a little bit of pressure. We get to learn a little bit more about this new roster.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

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Seahawks Offense vs Raiders Defense

Raiders key advantages on defense

Maxx Crosby is a high motor pass rusher who gives everyone he plays trouble. Seattle should be able to slide protection his direction as Chandler Jones has been surprisingly ineffective this year. Jones has always wrecked Seahawks linemen in past years while playing for Arizona. It would be no shock to see him have his best game of the year in Seattle Sunday.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Take a look at the passing numbers above. This is the worst defense in the NFL in defending quarterbacks, per passer rating and completion percentage. They are going against one of the very best. They are dead last in taking the ball away.

This is also one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL. Thirteen of their top fourteen players in terms of snaps have a double digit rate of missed tackles. The one player below 10% is at 9%. Eight of their top 11 players in terms of snap count have at least a 15% missed tackle rate. That is awful.

One of the worst has been nickel corner Amik Robertson (29.6%), but he has started to lose some playing time to Tyler Hall, who has not missed a tackle. This is a game where you would expect DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to do a ton of damage. It may turn out to be guys like Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas.

The Raiders are 32nd in the NFL in defending passes to running backs. They are 31st in the NFL in defending WR3 or WR4. They are 21st in defending the tight end, and less appalling 18th vs #1 WRs and 15th vs #2 WRs.

The Vegas run defense is mediocre, but is significantly better than their pass defense. Seattle needs to score touchdowns and score often to feel comfortable in this one.

Raiders Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Raiders key advantages on offense

The Seahawks have not been the best tackling team in the NFL either, and will face one of the best tackle breakers in the league in Josh Jacobs at running back. Vegas is committed to getting Jacobs touches and he has rewarded them time and again. He checks in averaging nearly four yards after contact, which ranks 5th in the NFL, right next Derrick Henry.

Davante Adams gives the Raiders an elite receiver, but he is basically the only weapon. Foster Moreau has done a decent job at tight end. Darren Waller is on injured reserve. That’s really it.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle must commit all necessary resources to stopping the run in the game. The Raiders ability to function as an offense depends greatly on the success of Jacobs. They have rushed for over 100 yards in four games this season. They are 3-1 in those games, with the one loss being by a point in Kansas City. The Seahawks cannot let that ground game get going the way they did against Tampa Bay.

Special Teams

These special teams groups are nearly identical. There should not be much in the way of return game in this one on either side and both kickers have been right near the top of the league.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!

Thanks to Sarah and Chris Rood for sponsoring this series!