Tom Brady has been the best in the business for a long time. A loooong time. He no longer holds that title, and has finally started to show some signs that age matters, even for him. The Bucs entered the year as one of the Super Bowl favorites, right there with the Buffalo Bills. The season has not unfolded as many expected. They are one Rams first down away from being the mirror reflection of the Seahawks at 3-6. They still are, as far as expectations versus reality.

The defense is doing their part. They are 5th in points allowed, and 7th in DVOA. That, despite missing some of their key players the last three weeks who are all pretty much back, depending on where things fall with Antoine Winfield Jr. This is the best defense the Seahawks have faced since playing the 49ers and Broncos. It will be fascinating to see how Geno Smith and his crew do against an elite defense.

Brady and the Tampa offense has been far from efficient. They are the worst running offense in the league by almost any measure. That has led to a heavy reliance on passing, with mediocre results. They have scored more than 22 points just once (in a game they lost), and have scored fewer than 20 points five times. Since starting 2-0, they are 2-5. Despite that, they still are in first place in their division.

This will be a home game for the Bucs, but expect a ton of Seahawks fans in the crowd overseas. One weakness for Tampa is defending the run. That could be all Seattle needs to get a leg up. Expect Brady and Mike Evans to test this Seattle pass defense. Each week is an opportunity to prove this Seahawks secondary is up to the task. They are 5th in the NFL in defensive pass DVOA since they changed a few things in week six.

Oddsmakers opened this game with the Bucs as 9 point favorites, and still have Seattle as the slight underdog. The wrong team is favored here. This is a game Seattle should win and head into the bye week on a roll.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

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Seahawks Offense vs Bucs Defense

Bucs key advantages on defense

This might be the best secondary Seattle has faced this season. The Bucs were without two of their best corners in Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis a few weeks, and also had their star safety Winfield Jr. miss this past game with a concussion. All three of those guys, plus corner Jamel Dean, are borderline Pro Bowl talents.

They are tough against receivers and are #1 in the NFL in defending passes to running backs. No team has been able to pass for more than 248 yards against this group. Even Patrick Mahomes was held to 228. Five of their opponents have passed for less than 200 yards.

Beyond their great coverage, they have one of the best pass rushes in the league, even with the recent injury to Shaquil Barrett. Vita Vea is a handful in the middle.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

You can see in the chart above that the Bucs struggle to stop the run, and on 3rd downs. The woeful Rams and Steelers were shut down on the ground, but the other four opponents they faced over the last six games all rushed for at least 151 yards.

Seattle knows it. Tampa will know it. This has the look of a physical matchup in the trenches. The Seahawks offensive line has held up well in almost every game. They will be crucial in this one once again.

The Bucs have great linebackers in Lavonte David And Devin White, but there has been some challenges against tight ends, where they are 18th in the NFL via DVOA. The Seahawks game plan against the Cardinals, where they kept running bootlegs and then run plays that looked identical, will likely be deployed again here. Tampa knows it is coming. They still have to stop it.

Seattle does not have to put up 30 points to win this one. Twenty should suffice.

Bucs Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Bucs key advantages on offense

Tampa has one of the best pass protection lines in the game and Brady gets rid of the ball faster than almost any quarterback. It makes it incredibly tough to get any pressure on the passer. In some ways, that is good news for Seattle since it still has not kept opponents from slowing down this offense.

Despite having stars like Mike Evans, and a quality receiver in Chris Godwin, the Bucs are 25th in the league in scoring.

Look for them to involve Leonard Fournette in the passing game and to test Coby Bryant in the slot.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Evans was hobbled against the Rams, but continued to play through the pain. It will be interesting to see if he shows up on the injury report this week. Seattle has been doing a much better job of swarming to the football and team tackling opponents lately.

Screen passes have been less effective, which is to say they are not a guaranteed 30 yard gain as they were to start the season. Brady may get Bryant a few times, but the rookie has also shown a knack for getting the ball back. If things go just a bit differently, he would have had two takeaways last week.

Woolen played wonderfully against DeAndre Hopkins. I like him in the matchup against Evans, although this is a more physical receiver than Hopkins.

Special Teams

Tampa has a decent return game. Both teams have been kicking the ball well.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!

Thanks to Sarah and Chris Rood for sponsoring this series!