There was a time where everyone thought the Seahawks were going to be a very bad team that would be in the running for one of the top picks in the 2023 draft. Then they went on a four week stretch that was impressive enough to take control of their division and have folks talking about making some noise in the playoffs. The last two weeks have revealed the Seahawks true selves. They are neither as good, or as bad, as they were believed to be. They are a middling, mediocre, team with ton of pleasant surprises and some massive talent gaps.
We are far enough into the season to have most of our questions answered. There needn’t be concern about this being one of the worst teams in the league, nor should there be any breath being held that this team can make a playoff run. It feels a little like exiting a carnival ride where you felt the adrenaline rush associated with both fear and elation, and now are walking a bit wobbly on a flat sidewalk. We are on solid ground, able to watch others go up and down while knowing where we stand.
I exited the ride painfully after the loss to Tampa Bay. The players did not come to play, the coaching staff did a horrible job in preparation and in game management, and they lost to a very beatable team in the trenches on both sides of the ball. No team that gets overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage has a chance to be good. That happened to the Seahawks for much of the first five games of the season, and then again versus Tampa.
For many other Seahawks fans, this game against the Raiders is when their fantasy vision of what this team could be was dashed. Trampled, really, by Josh Jacobs. Seattle had no answer for stopping the run game and had no ability to run themselves. The same was true a week ago against the worst running attack in the NFL.
By the way, Tampa lost to the Browns this week, and their leading rusher had 64 yards.
Take that defense and trot it out there against one of the best running backs in football and you can see what happens. Jacobs had over 300 yards of offense by himself.
No matter what happens the rest of the way, it is clear the Seahawks front seven on defense is a massive issue. They are certainly one of the 10 least talented front sevens in the game, and likely are bottom five. Coaching is absolutely part of the problem, but there is not a Pro Bowl player to be found in that group.
Uchenna Nwosu has had some nice games, but is not a consistent problem for opponents. Jordyn Brooks has mountains of tackles, but rarely makes an impact play that turns a drive or a game around. Shelby Harris is one of the best players on the defensive line, but he is on the wrong side of 30, and is more a rotational contributor.
Cody Barton remains one of the oddly controversial names in that group. He had some good moments in this game, making a rare play behind the line of scrimmage and tipping a pass that was picked off. He also was blown off the ball regularly and trailing Jacobs or others on crossing routes. Anyone arguing in favor of Barton has to know that no quality starter is controversial. Their value is made clear on a regular basis.
Seattle has had good-but-not-great linebackers before like LeRoy Hill, Anthony Simmons, and Malcolm Smith. Barton is not even in that category. Brooks might be.
The good news is the Seahawks are increasingly likely to get a top five pick in the draft next year, and maybe even top three, thanks to the Broncos miserable play. Russell Wilson’s greatest contribution to the Seahawks may be his awful play this year. What will be debated if Seattle lucks into the unthinkable with a top three pick is not whether they should take a quarterback or a defensive lineman. It will be whether the roster has enough holes that they should trade back for a bushel of additional picks including more first rounders in the following draft.
It was clear a few weeks ago that the Seahawks should keep Geno Smith even if it meant using a non-exclusive franchise tag, and draft a defensive lineman with their top pick. That is likely still the best path, but it could be argued now that Smith could be allowed to hit free agency and the Seahawks should either pick a quarterback this year or position themselves to be ready to draft one in 2024.
Smith has not been the main problem, but his level of play has slid quite a bit from where he was after a great stretch from Detroit to playing in Arizona. He has gone from making consistently great decisions at the line of scrimmage, getting rid of the ball quickly to avoid sacks, and having few turnover-worthy throws, to far fewer great decisions, more sacks, and more turnovers.
He made three inexcusable red zone passes in the first half and a number of other dangerous throws. He could have had 3 or 4 interceptions in this game. His fumble arguably cost the team the game in the fourth quarter. The Raiders were on the ropes defensively, and that play gave them life.
I still believe Smith should be re-signed and lean pretty heavily toward grabbing a game-wrecking defensive lineman with the top pick, but it would be a truly awful decision to keep Drew Lock as the backup instead of drafting a rookie every year until you find one. I don’t know where Michael Penix Jr. will be drafted, but spending a third round pick on a player like that is exactly what Seattle should be doing.
Seattle has six games remaining. Two of them are almost certain losses against the Chiefs in Kansas City and the 49ers at home. The rest of the games are all winnable. They are also all losable. They probably need to win four to get to 10 wins and make the playoffs. That feels pretty optimistic at this point. At the same time, it would not shock me if they find a way to beat the 49ers and lose to teams like the Jets and Rams.
Try to detach yourself from the wins and losses at this point. We will exit this season knowing the team is in good shape at both offensive tackle spots (even with some rough rookie moments), deep at cornerback (with Tre Brown hopefully getting more snaps), solid at receiver and running back and tight end, and with an option at quarterback who can win a lot of games with a decent roster around him.
The floor for this roster has been raised dramatically this season. What we are finding out is this group may be two off-seasons away from being a true contender instead of one. There are far worse outcomes.
For now, it feels like a free fall. It is a bit nauseating. The joyful anticipation has turned to bracing for anguish. Maybe this team has one more surprise turn left in this roller coaster of a season. But as any married couple can tell you, it becomes harder to surprise someone the longer you have known them. Eleven games into this season, we know this team pretty well.