A game like the one the Seahawks played on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers requires little analysis. Even in the era of high-flying offenses that are built on the pass, it will always be true that running the football without resistance from your opponent will put your team in great position to win. Add in some costly turnovers, no running game from your opponent, and no turnovers yourself, and victory is all but assured. The Panthers came in with the mindset that they were going to overpower the Seahawks. They were going to be more physical, more tough, more willful. They did all that, without much trouble in a wire-to-wire victory on the road in Seattle.
I have to admit something. I laughed a lot more than I screamed in this game. For one, I’ve got whatever sore throat cold thing that’s going around and decided this version of the Seahawks were not worth losing my voice. But mostly, it was an act of mental self-preservation more than physical.
The Panthers took the opening kickoff, and got a delay of game penalty before their first snap. On 1st and 15, they ran the ball with extra tackle eligible. They gained a couple yards. On 2nd and 13, they ran again. They gained 3 yards. On 3rd and 10, they ran again, and got the first down. I laughed.
There would unfortunately be no shortage of similar moments throughout this game. Anger comes from a place of heightened expectations. When your expectations have sunk below ground level, bad football becomes a comedic performance of pratfalls and nut punches.
This Seahawks front seven is so bad that I actually feel for them. This is not about a lack of effort. It is a lack of strength and skill, mixed with some stubborn coaching. That this group gave up a mountain of rushing yards again is not surprising at all. Losing Shelby Harris (illness) and Al Woods (heel injury) meant they were playing without their two best defensive linemen. That is never good. It is a death sentence when you are already awful.
There will be people who try to make the case that Geno Smith’s bad game should cause the Seahawks to consider selecting a QB with their top pick next year. We are watching the same game and coming to completely different conclusions.
The benefit of drafting a rookie quarterback is that you get a rookie contract for the most expensive position for 4-5 years. That only matters if: (a) the QB becomes elite (b) the rest of the roster is good enough win a ring (c) you are not spending significant money elsewhere on a QB.
No matter where you take a quarterback, there is a risk they will not work out. Trevor Lawrence was a sure thing. He’s been mostly bad-to-mediocre in the NFL. Trey Lance looks like a bust. Baker Mayfield has been mediocre-to-bad. There are no guarantees. You can, of course, say that about any position.
This roster, though, is in desperate need of an alpha defensive stud on the line. The talent is so bad there that they are at least two great starters away from being competitive. If you hit on a QB, you will still need probably another draft and offseason to raise the ceiling of this team. The chances that a year one or year two QB is going to play above the level we have seen from Smith this year is incredibly small.
If you hit on even an above average starter on the defensive line, especially on the inside at tackle, and spend other picks improving your front seven, this becomes a very clear playoff team with potential to raise the ceiling further with a good run-blocking interior offensive linemen (or two).
There is no plan where it makes sense to let Smith walk in free agency for nothing. That makes drafting a rookie QB even less appealing as you lose the contract advantage for a chunk of those rookie contract years.
It makes so much more sense to make this draft almost completely about the line of scrimmage, run it back with Smith, and leave the rookie QB moment at least a year or two off. It would be fine to draft a QB this year, but not with any pick in the first two rounds.
There are just far too many downsides with going QB with that top pick.
Was Smith’s game yesterday bad? Yes. Would Seattle still have won if they could stop the run? Absolutely.
What is also beginning to make sense is cutting ties with either Quandre Diggs or Jamal Adams in the offseason. There are ways out of both of their contracts with post-June 1 cuts. Seattle could free up significant cap room, get younger, healthier, cheaper, and better.
Basically, every position but cornerback needs to be elevated on this defense. As much as defensive line is the priority, linebacker remains a problem. Jordyn Brooks and Cody Barton spend a depressing percentage of time getting blocked out of plays. I have a hard time remembering Barton shedding a block.
As bad as the defense has been, the run blocking on the offensive line is a real problem as well. There has been no room to run for weeks, even when Kenneth Walker III was healthy. A more physical center and guard would make a big difference.
I just generally prefer a roster building approach where a young quarterback is the final piece to the puzzle than one that starts the clock ticking well before the championship window is ready to open. After all, the whole point is to have so much talent elsewhere that you need to spend the bulk of your cap on other positions. That simply is not the case with these Seahawks. Not yet, at least.
The most painful moment of the season may be in front of us. A team with talent oozing from both sides of the ball comes to town Thursday. They are arguably the most physical team in football, and already handed Seattle their most lopsided loss of the year. They are also our biggest rivals and will have a strong presence in Lumen Field.
They are a good example of what a championship roster with a quarterback-sized hole looks like. Seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy has been competent enough to not get in the way of the league’s best defense and a powerful running attack. I see the Seahawks as closer to the Eagles of last year that had a good quarterback in place and needed some key additions to become Super Bowl contenders.
All signs point to this being an absolute embarrassment Thursday night. It may be so bad that laughing is not even a mental health option. Just know that the Seahawks have largely already got what they needed from this season. They have a great draft class. They have a great quarterback. They are going to get a great pair of picks from the Broncos. They know where they need to improve the roster. If your goal is another championship, there is not much left to glean from this season. Eyes forward.