The last time these two teams met, the Seahawks had lost two straight home games to the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers. Worse, the defense had given up over 160 yards rushing four straight games and over 120 yards rushing in five straight. Then Al Woods got injured and was unavailable. The, Bryan Mone got injured and left the game. Here Seattle was, facing the hottest and most physical team in football in a primetime game that had humiliation written all over it.

Yet, like so many other times during this wacky Seahawks season, something unexpected happened. The Seattle defense forced the 49ers to punt on four of their first five possessions. There the Seahawks were, down 7-3, with the ball and less than two minutes remaining in the half. A few quick passes and Seattle was at their own 35 yard line with just over a minute left when Travis Homer caught a pass and fumbled as he was hit by two 49er players.

San Francisco scored a touchdown on a six yard drive. They got the ball to start the second half and added another touchdown. At 21-3, the rout was on. Or was it? Seattle got another field goal, and then held the 49ers scoreless on their next three possessions before scoring their only touchdown of the game to shockingly pull within one score at 21-13. The 49ers would slam the door shut on the last drive, but this game was not the flogging most expected.

In fact, that was the second-closest game the 49ers played in the final eight games of the season, and their lowest point total in their final six games. Every other defense allowed at least 33 points.

San Francisco has been blowing the doors off of nearly every team they have faced. But somehow the lowly Seahawks defense, missing key players, was able to slow them down. Seattle coaches would tell you that two of the touchdowns came on busted coverages. The other, came on a six yard drive.

Since that game, the 49ers have rolled on, with one notable exception. The best defense in the league has sprung a leak in pass coverage. They gave up 270 passing yards and 3 passing TDs to Carson Wentz and Taylor Heincke. They gave up 365 yards and 3 TDs to world-beater, Jarrett Stidham. Even David Blough managed a 77-yard touchdown to the creaky A.J. Green in the final game.

The 49ers ranked 27th in the NFL in explosive passes (16+ yards) allowed in the three games since facing Seattle. Their top three cornerbacks ranked 56th (Charvarius Ward), 84th (Samuel Womack), and 142nd (Deommodore Lenoir) out of 161 corners during that stretch. Two of their safeties, Talanoa Hufanga (85th) and Tashaun Gipson Sr. (112th) ranked near the bottom of 136 safeties during that stretch.

If you are an advanced stats fan, the 49ers were 23rd in the NFL in opponent dropback success rate and 27th in pass defense DVOA over those three weeks.

San Francisco is talented enough elsewhere that they were still able to win these games, and by large margins in two of the three. They also forced some interceptions in between allowing big gains through the air. Whether Seattle has what it takes to exploit this soft spot in an otherwise dominant defense remains to be seen.

The Seahawks pass offense has been mostly mediocre of late, and has turned the ball over too often. Their run game has been much better, but this 49ers run defense is almost impenetrable. Those explosive runs of 12+ yards that Kenneth Walker loves so much? The 49ers defense gave up zero. The longest run they have surrendered in three weeks is 9 yards.

Seattle will need to play a game unlike almost any they have played this year in order to win. They have had just one game without a turnover. They are 0-4 when they do not force a turnover, and the 49ers are 3rd best in the league at protecting the ball. The Seahawks almost certainly have to win the turnover battle, and likely need to not turn the ball over at all.

They will need to recapture the more prolific passing offense that has eluded them for the past five weeks. They will need to tackle well, play screens well, and avoid busted coverages. They will need excellent special teams play. And they will need to do it all in what is expected to be a rainy and windy afternoon in Santa Clara.

The compounding probabilities of all those things going right for Seattle is not high. That is what would make a Seattle win all the more exhilarating.

 

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

This series is sponsored by Sarah and Chris Rood, huge Seahawks fans and Hawk Blogger patrons. Please thank them by contacting them to work with them on your next home purchase or sale in the Seattle area. They will donate an additional $500 to Ben’s Fund for every closed transaction!

Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense

49ers key advantages on defense

Nick Bosa is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. Fred Warner has been back to Pro Bowl form and is flanked by athletic flyers in Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair. Hufanga made the Pro Bowl and combined with safeties Jimmie Ward and Tashaun Gipson for 12 interceptions. This is a defense with playmakers at every level, and physical tacklers that do not often miss. Bosa gave Charles Cross nightmares in the last matchup. Truthfully, every Seahawks offensive lineman was overwhelmed in that game.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Walker had 3 yards or more on eight of his twelve carries in the last matchup. Seattle went away from the run, and that was a mistake. Walker has grown as a runner in the last couple of weeks, taking fewer chances and getting tougher yards. If he can grind out 2-5 yards on the majority of his carries, Seattle needs to lean on him to reduce turnover potential.

If the 49ers bottle up the run game as they have against so many teams this year, Seattle will need Geno Smith to be excellent. In order for Smith to be excellent, the offensive line has to be at least reasonably effective and D.K. Metcalf has to be dominant. Tyler Lockett is playing hurt.

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense

49ers key advantages on offense

Deebo Samuel was absent in the first game and is one of the biggest badasses in football. Elijah Mitchell was also not in that last game, and he brings his breakaway speed back for this one. Brock Purdy has settled in with George Kittle as his safety net. Wise choice. Nobody has managed to keep Kittle out of the end zone in the last four weeks, and only one team was able to hold him to a single touchdown. How Seattle attempts to defend him will be key.

Trent Williams is the best lineman in football.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Seahawks have held their last three opponents, including the Chiefs in Kansas City, under 300 yards of offense. They have Al Woods back, and may get Ryan Neal back as well. Darrell Taylor has ended the season on a tear, and fished with 9.5 sacks. He has been a top five pass rusher over the last five weeks of the year. Boye Mafe has come on as well.

This team has done this primarily through great coverage and improved pass rush. The run defense has been better, but not great.

The 49ers have been held under 100 yards rushing just once in the last 11 games, and they only managed 13 points in that game. No team has been able to truly put the game on Brock Purdy’s shoulders as the 49ers have regularly rushed for 150+ yards.

One thing to note with Purdy is he has struggled at times when blitzed. Seattle only blitzed him twice in the first game, but one of those times resulted in a throw directly to Quandre Diggs, who dropped the pick. Look for Seattle to bring more pressure this time.

Diggs is worth singling out. He played one of his worst games in that last matchup, not only dropping the easy interception but making a very weak attempt to tackle Kittle on one of his touchdowns. Since then, Diggs has been the best safety in football. He has interceptions in his last two games, and has the top PFF grade in the league. This would be a great game for him to pick on the rookie.

Special Teams

Seattle has a better special teams unit. Seahawks fans have to hope that is a factor.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!

Thanks to Sarah and Chris Rood for sponsoring this series!