The Seahawks face a choice this offseason, to commit to Geno Smith for the next couple seasons, or utilize a coveted top-5 pick on a hopeful franchise quarterback. This decision isn’t cut and dry given the unique circumstances of Geno’s career and sudden rise.
Geno Smith had a season that far outpaced consensus expectations, leading the Seahawks to the playoffs, playing like a top-5 QB at times, and proving that Pete Carroll and John Schneider made the right choice to keep him around. While his performance declined down the stretch, he ended up 14th in EPA per play, 1st in CPOE (completion percentage over expected), and 7th in the combined EPA-CPOE metric (which is the best metric for predicting future EPA performance), per RBSDM.com. This is good enough performance to warrant a sizeable extension.
This piece isn’t intended to say the Seahawks shouldn’t re-sign Geno, but rather to explore the alternative. The most likely scenario at this point is Geno Smith re-signs, as he himself expressed desire to, and the Seahawks front office appears to feel the same way. The looming question is how much will it take to re-sign him?
Middle-Class Quarterback Contracts
| Name | Average Per Year (APY) |
| Derek Carr | $40,474,160 |
| Dak Prescott | $40,000,000 |
| Matt Stafford | $40,000,000 |
| Kirk Cousins | $35,000,000 |
| Jared Goff | $33,500,000 |
| Carson Wentz | $32,000,000 |
| Matt Ryan | $30,000,000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $29,500,000 |
The above table shows the NFL’s middle-class of quarterbacks. There’s a wide range of quarterbacks here, at the top of the list is Carr, who was benched and will either be traded or cut. Prescott and Cousins are consistent playoff participants with some doubt, more so for Cousins, whether he can lead a team to a Super Bowl. Stafford struggled mightily before an injury ended his season. Goff played better this season, but he’s unlikely to take another step forward. The lower tier is rounded out by Wentz, Ryan, and Tannehill who were all benched at some point this season. Overall, the Cowboys and Vikings are likely the only teams that aren’t regretting their decision.
Geno Smith falls somewhere in this group of quarterbacks, more towards the Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott side but with only one season of solid performance to back it up. The non-exclusive franchise tag number will be around $31 miillion, which will act as a starting point for negotiations in terms of APY. That number could lower in exchange for more guarantees in a multi-year contract, but that reduces the Seahawks ability to get out of the contract quickly if Geno’s performance falls off in a hurry.
Further complicating the situation is the Seahawks cap situation in the upcoming season. They currently have just $31.2 million, with a significant rookie pool due to the two 1st round picks. While there will be a few cuts to increase cap space, the Seahawks likely need Geno Smith’s cap hit will need to be below the $31 million on the non-exclusive franchise tag if they want to have any significant free agent acquisitions.
The cap situation looks much healthier in future years, so the main hurdle will be affordability in the first year of the contract. While there’s always cap manuevers to help in the near term, committing to Smith past two years (or having large dead money past two years) is a risky proposition. Just ask the Colts, who will have $18 million in dead money should they decide to cut Matt Ryan this offseason. Ultimately, it’s not a huge concern given the large amount of cap space in future years, but it is an inconvenience should Geno fail to repeat his performance.
Extending Smith will be expensive, the Seahawks need to ask themselves, can we contend for a Super Bowl with a more consistent Geno Smith and an improved defense? If they don’t feel they can, the logic of re-signing Geno fades.
Value of Drafting Top-5
Looking ahead to the draft, the Seahawks have the 5th overall pick thanks to the Broncos poor season. They haven’t had a pick this high since 2009 when they took Aaron Curry with the 4th pick. It’s been more than a decade since having a top-5 pick and only happened because of a trade. A pick this high is rare, and in a draft where three or four quarterbacks may get taken in the top-10, it would be an oversight to dismiss taking a quarterback. While early (pre-combine) in draft season, there appears to be a lack of star power at skill positions, with even the most coveted prospects having question marks. Quarterback meanwhile looks very solid after a weak 2022 draft class. Four quarterbacks look like they will be first round picks and maybe even all four will go in the top-10.
With their native pick, the Seahawks are slotted at 20th, a spot that in most drafts means the top quarterback prospects are gone. This is one of the downfalls of being in the quarterback middle-class, teams like the Commanders (16th pick) and Titans (11th pick) would need to give up significant resources to move up and secure a top quarterback. Even a team like the Raiders at 7th might see three quarterbacks be drafted ahead of them. The point here is that even if Geno struggles, it’s not a sure thing the Seahawks will have a top-5 pick anytime soon. Securing an elite quarterback prospect on a cheap rookie deal is hard to pass up.
Nevertheless, good quarterbacks can get taken outside the top few picks. Over the last decade Russell Wilson (3rd round), Kirk Cousins (4th round), Dak Prescott (4th round), Lamar Jackson (32nd overall), and Jalen Hurts (2nd round) have been successful. The hit rate falls off though after the top few prospects.
The above graph shows career EPA per dropback and the associated draft position for each quarterback. Of note, there’s a selection bias issue here where quarterbacks who were drafted later but never played aren’t shown, so the true trend is probably a more extreme decline by draft position. Setting that aside, there’s a clear bunch of good performers that get taken early in the draft (top-10 or earlier). There are lots of misses as well, drafting a quarterback early is by no means a sure thing, but waiting until later lowers the chance of finding a franchise quarterback.
Rookie quarterback contracts are the greatest value in football. Top of market quarterbacks will be topping $50 million APY with regularity soon enough. Compare that to the Seahawks 5th pick of just $8.5 million APY. That sort of savings doesn’t happen anywhere else. The debate then turns to a final point, are the Seahawks in position to take advantage of a rookie contract?
Consider the Cincinatti Bengals who took Joe Burrow in 2020. The previous season they were 29th in EPA per rush, had a poor OL, their WR1 is now their WR3 (Tyler Boyd), and were 30th by defensive EPA/play. Now in year three of Burrow, they have one of the best wide receiver rooms in the league and a defense that shut down Josh Allen in the playoffs. The Bengals were not in a position to immedietaly take advantage of the rookie quarterback contract, but it’s turned around quickly. While no one may be Joe Burrow in this draft, there’s no need to wait until the defense is good to take a shot at a franchise quarterback.
The alternative is building the great defense and never having the quarterback, like the Jets this past season. But even there is a red herring, the Jets did take a quarterback, it didn’t proclude them from investing in defense. The Seahawks also have picks 20, 37 and 52, those are premium picks that can build out the defense. Waiting for the perfect moment that may never come is a road to despair.
On the bright side, the Seahawks have building blocks in place for a young quarterback to succeed. Up front, two rookie tackles had encouraging starts to their career and can provide good, if not great, pass protection. The receiver position looks good too, with a true number one in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett who has turned in four straight 1,000 yard seasons. Tie that together with a creative offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, and the situation looks quite rosy for a rookie quarterback.
The Seahawks may be at a fork in the the road this off-season, but it’s a good time to be a fan. If they opt for the Geno Smith route, it’s a great story to root for with the upshot of Geno reproducing his early season performance where he played like a top-5 quarterback. The rookie route may have bumps in the road, but provides an immediate cap value and infuses hope in the long-term success of the franchise.