The Senior Bowl – like it or not – is one of the flagpole events in the offseason calendar.
While John Schneider, and the Seahawks have had some of their biggest draft whiffs come from the Senior Bowl, they had a signifcantly better haul last year, landing Abraham Lucas, Tariq Woolen, Boye Mafe, and Coby Bryant in the first four rounds of the draft.
This year’s crop at the Senior Bowl didn’t feature any of the top quarterback or defensive line prospects, but there were a number of interesting players that could fit as draft options for the Seahawks anywhere from Rounds 2-to-5.
Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to make it down to Mobile, but that didn’t stop me from doing my research. I was able to poll a handful of team sources, agency sources, and media members to get a sense what was happening during practice week to gather intel as we are approaching one of the biggest off-seasons in Seahawks history
- Every person I spoke with expects Geno Smith to end up back with the Seahawks, but the question remains how much. I ran Brad Spielberger’s projection (four years, $150 million) at Pro Football Focus for Geno Smith’s projected free agent contract by a few agents, and they thought the number was a bit on the high side. Brad does an outstanding job with his these, but multiple league sources (not with the Seahawks) view Geno’s situation was more of an outlier situation, given his lack of track record and age. The consensus I got from asking around was very similar to what Seahawks beat writer Michael-Shawn Dugar of The Athletic, who eloquently wrote earlier this week Geno “will be a unique case, and won’t be as simple as using previous quarterback contracts as benchmarks.” One league executive sourced in Dugar’s article mentioned above had the ceiling of his average annual value closer to $30 million, which is very similar to the range I had heard. I would guess closer to the franchise tag number.
- Unlike Geno where I had difficulty finding a non-Seattle match for him, based on sources I spoke with, teams are gearing up to make a run at Derek Carr once he is ultimately released or traded by the Raiders. The Jets have Carr on a shortlist of veteran quarterbacks that includes Aaron Rogers, per sources, and the New Orleans Saints (who have some cap maneuvering to do) have Carr as a target. Tampa Bay could look at Carr as well. New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen was with the Raiders when they drafted Carr.
- A lot of league insiders are expecting the Seahawks to lose assistant head coach Sean Desai to the Denver Broncos. Desai is rumoured to have gotten a good recommendation from Vic Fangio, who was one of Payton’s initial DC targets before he took the job with the Denver Broncos. Fangio going back to Denver as DC would have a bit of a weird given Fangio was recently the head coach there. Desai is competing with Brian Flores for the DC role in Denver (Flores also has a shot at the Cardinals’ head coach job and is a top candidate in Minnesota, where Desai dropped out) barring a surprise candidate emerging. Desai came into the league with Fangio with the Chicago Bears and is a big proponent of his defensive scheme. He is said to be one of the best teachers in the industry.
- Just about everyone I spoke with – both from the agent and team side – are anticipating the Chicago Bears to move the No. 1 overall pick. It is just a matter of when. The obvious candidate mentioned was the Indianapolis Colts, who are still three weeks into their scattered coaching search, but a few team execs were projecting a move up from the Carolina Panthers, especially after hiring Frank Reich as head coach, who had difficulty finding stability at QB at the end of his tenure in Indianapolis. This could put the Seahawks either in an advantageous draft position – either to auction off the No. 5 pick to a QB-needy team that misses out on the top 2 quarterbacks, or be in position to draft Will Anderson or Jalen Carter at No. 5 if three QBs go in the top four. One other team mentioned to me that could be a sneaky option for a draft day QB move-up is the Tennessee Titans. They have a new general manager and despite the success Mike Vrabel has had there, there is some concern from ownership whether their roster has a big enough ceiling with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.
- One league source wondered if Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker could be a quarterback target for the Seahawks, if Seattle goes defensive line with their first draft pick. Some execs expect Schneider to take a QB in the top five, however. Hooker, who is more likely a Day 2 pick, would pair well with more of a bridge starter such as Geno Smith since he could basically have a redshirt year. Hooker was playing at the level of a first round pick this past season before an ACL injury knocked him for the season in November. Hooker stylistically is quite similar to Geno, but the downside is he is already 25 years old. The injured QB was in Mobile this week meeting with teams since he is not ready to practice, but is said to be making good progress, and his leadership skills, maturity drew good reviews from multiple people I spoke with.
- Schneider was up front watching the 1-on-1 drills between offensive and defensive line, which is a promising sign given the Seahawks’ deficiencies in the trenches this past. With four picks in the top 60, this should be a priority in both free agency and the draft. According to a few media members I polled, the standout performers that could appeal to the Seahawks include Minnesota C John Michael Schmitz (early Day 2 pick), TCU guard Steve Avila, Wisconsin DT Keeanu Benton, Georgia Tech defensive end Keion White, who was shockingly listed as the No. 8 overall player on his top 150 prospects list that came out this week.
- Of all the prospects at the Senior Bowl, Schmitz would one of the ideal targets for the Seahawks. The Seahawks have been looking for a long-term center since Max Unger was traded, and Schmitz would be a Day 1 starter in Andy Dickerson’s scheme. Hard to be the most physical team, as Schneider mentioned, with a center that is constantly losing at the point of attack. He was one of the best performers, if not the best player, in Mobile.
- A lot of the agents I connected with believe the Seahawks are well positioned cap wise to take on a Smith multi-year contract, where the year 1 cap hit should fall somewhere around $14-16 million. That numbers could be created in cap space almost entirely by releasing Gabe Jackson, Shelby Harris or Quinton Jefferson, which would still leave the Seahawks room to pursue free agents.