Sentiment does not win Super Bowls. Chemistry can be a big ingredient, but even that is overstated. You might be surprised how variable the chemistry of the same group of ambitious young men can be depending on how much winning or losing is happening on the field. It is easy to get swayed by nostalgia. You remember who the player used to be on the field. You remember who the player is as a person. General Managers cannot afford to overweight what once was as they plan for what will be. Every now and then, the good vibes of reviving the past line up well with what your football team needs right now. Signing Bobby Wagner is one of those moments.
The future Hall of Fame linebacker comes back to Seattle after a poorly handled exit and one year hiatus. He signed a deal reported to be $7M for one year. The vast majority of Seahawks fans, media, current and former Seahawks players, celebrated the move. A small minority criticized it. I see where everyone is coming from, but see this as the move Seattle needed to make based on a variety of factors.
Wagner is someone who immediately elevates the confidence of everyone in the building. He is the definition of a “professional” athlete. He is one of the best men you will ever meet. His level of play is still high enough to be clearly better than the other options Seattle had to play inside linebacker at this point in the offseason (more on that in a bit). He still makes plays in the run game and as a blitzer. He still reads offenses as well, or better, than any linebacker in the game. He still can alert players around him to what is coming and help players prepare for the week ahead. He is still a voice that will steady frayed nerves when things are going the wrong way during a game.
The Seahawks are not building their new defense around Wagner. Realistically, he would not have been on the shopping list if Jordyn Brooks had not been hurt. With Brooks out until probably mid-season, and most likely not the same player when he does get back in the first year from an ACL injury, Wagner is a great option to step in.
Should Brooks come back sooner and be ready to contribute, he can slide to weakside linebacker and pair with Wagner for what would be an upgrade over what Seattle ran our there last year, at least against the run.
Wagner also increases the chances that my least favorite off-season move by Seattle so far, the signing of Devin Bush, will work out. I see Bush as a possible downgrade from Cody Barton, and that’s coming from someone who had no interest in bringing Barton back.
People keep pointing to the Bush ACL injury and that maybe he will be healthy now. That happened in 2020. We are well beyond the timeline where we can expect additional recovery. It is usually one season after the player returns that marks when they are truly back. That would have been last year for Bush. Instead, he was benched and pulled from their nickel and dime packages before that.
No Steelers fan was sorry to see him go. The hope is that putting him in a room with a guy like Wagner could change his career. He will likely be asked to do different things in this defense as well, and I would expect Seattle to add to the pile in the draft to give him some competition. I like Jon Rhattigan, who is entering his “year after returning” season from an ACL. He seems like more of a middle linebacker, though, so it’s not clear to me he would play alongside Wagner.
We will find out the details of the contract, but it would not surprise me if the actual number for Wagner is in the $3-5M range, with incentives that could lift it to $7M. I just do not see any other free agent option that would provide the value Wagner provides. Seattle almost had to make this work. It could have been different had they approached this position with more aggression earlier.
To that end, let’s run through each position group real quick to assess and recap what they did.
Linebackers (Grade: C-)
Since we have already been on this topic, we can start here. There was a deep, young, and talented free agent class for linebackers. The market was also pretty cheap. John Schneider admitted that the team was counting on the “numbers” at the position to allow them to focus elsewhere first and were caught off guard by how quickly some players took deals and were off the market.
The ideal for me here would have been two younger players with proven track records who could be part of the defense for 2-3 years or more. Guys I liked:
- Germaine Pratt $6.75 APY
- Alex Singleton $6M APY
- David Long $5M APY
- Azeez Al-Shaair $5M APY
- Leighton Vander Esch $4M APY
Some combination of two players from above and a draft pick would have been A+ material. Instead, Seattle got a guy in Bush who must be a very different player than he has been, and an older player who has more age-related limitations, who will not be a long-term answer. Now, if it was Bobby and one of the first four guys on that list, I’d be good as well. I really do like Bobby for this specific season.
There is a small contingent of Seahawks fans who are upset Seattle “lost” Barton to Washington. That guy will never be more than a mediocre linebacker. He was not the answer for making this defense better. I would rather risk getting worse than stick with someone who you already know is not the answer.
What we cannot know is whether any of these guys were really an option for Seattle. Fans can point to cost comparisons and say, “Look! We could have had him for less!” The reality is some guys have no interest in coming to Seattle or playing in this system or are committed to where their family wants to live or the coaching staffs they already know. Without that context, I have to grade down Seattle for misjudging the free agent market and missing out some more clear upgrades at a position in dire need of help.
There are some options here in the draft, and I expect Seattle to consider a variety of players among their first five picks, including the potential of shifting a guy like Nolan Smith from DE to LB. Someone like Jack Campbell is interesting, but he profiles more as redundant with Wagner and would then force Brooks to be a full-time WLB once he returns. Drew Sanders is more of a pass rusher than a true linebacker, but is interesting. I am intrigued by Dorian Williams, who would be a nice compliment to Wagner and Bush given that he excels in coverage.
Defensive line (Grade: B+)
The signing of Dre’mont Jones was the surprise of the offseason. Seattle paid a hefty price, which is something they have not done since the days of Sidney Rice (2011). Jones is an ascending player, who is disruptive on the interior and has some positional flexibility. He is a good piece for that defense, and likely more valuable than anyone Seattle has played on the defensive line for the last 3-4 seasons.
It is important to not fall for free agency hype. It is rare for guys who get paid that much early in free agency to ever live up to their contracts. Jones has proven he is a great complimentary player. He has not shown he is a blue chip centerpiece who you can build a defense around and who opponents are altering their game plans to account for.
I still like the move because Seattle has screwed this position group up so bad that they had almost no choice but to overpay someone to help turn things around. Jones is young and good and hungry. They paid what the market required. The defense got better as soon as he signed. Do not overthink it.
That, however, is not anywhere close to enough.
The Jarran Reed signing was a letdown. He is a fine run defending interior lineman. I much preferred someone like Greg Gaines, who is five years younger, cost less, and offers something in the pass rush as well.
We know the Seahawks tried to get Zach Allen in addition to Jones. That would have been really exciting. I think Seattle was right to prioritize Jones over Allen, but we will see.
Moving on from Quinton Jefferson, Poona Ford, and L.J. Collier were all encouraging steps. Shelby Harris would help this team, and still may find his way back depending on salary cap and how the draft goes. Al Woods was great, but did play through an injury last year and fell off quite a bit. He may not be ready to contribute at the same level any more. I do not see Seattle bringing him back given they only saved about $3.5M by releasing him. You do not usually cut players to save a couple million (factoring in what it would cost to sign him again). Harris is the more typical sign-back situation, where he was up near $10M in savings.
The big question for this group is who plays nose tackle and who pairs with Jones as an end? Jalen Carter is a name that will not go away. I do not think his off-field issues would have scared Seattle away, but showing up 9 pounds heavier and out of shape for his pro day really cuts against what Pete Carroll and John Schneider look for in a player. If they have enough information to feel good about adding him, that would be a big deal. I am guessing he is not an option for them at #5.
There are a number of other names to watch here:
- Calijah Kancey: super disruptive athlete who will be off some boards due to very short arms
- Bryan Bresee: crazy athlete who has not demonstrated much in the way of playmaking on the field
- Mazi Smith: True nose tackle with freak athleticism, who could help against the run and possibly as a pass rusher
- Siaki Ika: Classic bowling ball nose tackle who could start day one in the middle of the line
Will Anderson is the consensus ideal name to fall to Seattle, and it could happen if either Arizona surprises by preferring Tyree Wilson or trades out for a team that wants to jump Indy for a QB. Anderson has the highest floor and a high ceiling. The draft almost instantly becomes a success if Seattle adds this guy to the mix.
Wilson is a guy who I struggle to see in this defense, and I’m not personally a huge fan of slower pass rushers who rely on power.
Others:
- Lukas Van Ness: I think he is a questionable fit in this defense as well as he is too light to play 3-4 end, and too heavy to play OLB
- Smith: super freaky athlete, but there is some question about whether he is more a linebacker
- Myles Murphy: Somewhat similar to Bresee in that his athletic prowess did not always show on film
- Will McDonald IV: Watch out for this guy. He might be the best edge addition for Seattle outside of Anderson, and could fall to their second round pick
- Adetomiwa Adebawore: A 3-4 end, Adebawore has eye-popping athletic characteristics, but his play on the field has not matched it, so teams would have to do a lot of projecting here
- Tuli Tuipulotu: Another 3-4 end, Tuipulotu led the FBS in sacks and is someone I get excited about if Kancey is not around for Seattle at #20.
Secondary (Grade: A-)
This was a place where Seattle had some younger players step forward in 2022. Tariq Woolen looks like a top-shelf starter. Coby Bryant made plays in the nickel and improved in coverage as the year went on. Ryan Neal showed he can be a quality starter in this league. Even Michael Jackson was solid starter.
Add in veterans in Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, and you might think you don’t need to add anything here.
Seattle surprised just about everyone by not only adding to this group, but paying starter money to do it at a position that already has a ton of money committed. Julian Love was a do-everything player for the Giants. He was a corner in college, and played nickel, deep safety, and box safety for New York.
He was the captain of the defense, respected by players, and solid in coverage and against the run. He’s a quality player. His versatility raises some questions about who will be most impacted by his addition.
It is safe to assume Diggs will remain in his role as deep safety. Neal was a guy who some thought was an All-Pro level player at the other safety spot. Bryant should not feel comfortable at nickel, but it would be surprising if Seattle spent the money they did to bring in a guy to block a second-year guy from playing.
My best guess is the team has either already decided to move on from Jamal Adams, thus saving $8.5M in cap space (which they need, by the way, to even afford Wagner’s new contract) if they designate him a post-June 1st cut, or they are not counting on him playing for them anytime soon.
His quad tendon injury is not like an ACL. Return timetables are far harder to predict and some players never return to their former selves. Maybe he comes back mid-year. If Adams is not playing, then Neal and Love make a great combination to add to Diggs for a three safety look the team played a lot last year.
Perhaps, Love will play some weakside linebacker the way so many are predicting Adams would do if he was healthy. That would make the Bush signing a lot less concerning as he would be on the field far less.
I also think it could become some competition for Bryant, and maybe the team will like different guys for different matchups.
If Adams does come back and can play for an extended period of time, he may also even get some outside linebacker snaps to rush the passer, which he did so well in 2021.
The best approach here is to assume Adams will not contribute meaningfully to the season. If he does, great. If not, Seattle now does not have to hold their breath about the safety position the way they have the last two seasons.
I think Seattle could still draft a free safety later in the draft as a future replacement for Diggs, but they are likely done at that spot. That means some really awesome players like Brian Branch are probably off the board.
I do think cornerback should be a position Seattle targets. Jackson was fine, but the team could create a true position of strength by adding another stud rookie across from Woolen. Tre Brown is a sleeper that could rise to starter status over Jackson, so the Seahawks do not need to add more here. This draft, though, is overflowing with quality cornerbacks.
A few names that could be good fits based on scheme fit and where they could go:
- Julius Brents: 6’3″ with a 41.5″ vertical and over 11′ broad jump, Brents is a great athlete who the Seahawks have already shown interest in. He could be an option late second or third
- Eli Ricks: 6’2″ and played at Alabama where Seahawks secondary coach, Karl Brooks coached. Ricks is a classic press corner
- Kelee Ringo: 6’2″ and mocked at a massive variance from first round to third. If he slides to late second or third, Seattle would have to think about it
- Garrett Williams: On the shorter side, but Williams could be a guy who slides due to recovering from an ACL injury. He might have been a first round pick or early second as an elite cover corner. Some compare him to Devon Witherspoon, who is the consensus top corner in the draft
Quarterback (Grade: A+)
Bringing back Geno Smith was seen as the most predictable move of the Seahawks offseason, but the contract he signed was surprising to most. It would be easy to credit Schneider for getting a great deal, but I credit Smith, who is as genuine as they come and has put his money where his mouth is unlike other quarterbacks who chose to maximize their earnings over increasing the odds the team would maximize the talent around them.
You don’t add a Love or maybe even a Jones if Smith demands more. Alternatively, you let him walk and are stuck paying the like of Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett to play quarterback and force yourself to draft a QB early.
The signing of Smith to the deal he signed gives the Seahawks maximum flexibility at the position, and I am in the camp that thinks Smith can improve on his record-setting season last year.
Smith was a top seven quarterback. Even if he stays at that level, you are getting a top 10 quarterback for a contract that is outside the top ten for the position.
Smith played as a top four quarterback for much of the season, and I think he can be that again this year. With Aaron Rodgers moving to the AFC and Tom Brady retiring, it is fair to ask if Smith might be the best quarterback in the conference. Yes, I said it.
Jalen Hurts could be the guy. Dak Prescott is in the conversation. Kirk Cousins doesn’t do it for me. Jared Goff is not the guy. Kyler Murray is definitely not the guy. Maybe a healthy Brock Purdy does it. Justin Fields is a runner until proven otherwise. Daniel Jones is not it. The Panthers are about to draft C.J. Stroud in all likelihood, and he may be a fast riser. With Houston, Indy, and possibly the Raiders drafting the other QBs, that could further the imbalance with the conferences.
Smith has what it takes to be the best of the bunch. Give him better line play and another weapon on offense and things get really interesting.
I would much prefer a rookie drafted on day three to be the backup over Drew Lock, but his contract is very short on guarantees, so Seattle gets a good grade from me there since their options are not really diminished and they do not need to force a draft pick.
So why all the selfies?
I see this position differently than a large number of Seahawks fans. Smith can be your guy for the next three years at least. You can be adding younger QBs behind him to see if you strike gold, or you can go all-in to get one of the young guys later once you have built up the rest of the roster. That approach maximizes the benefit of a rookie QB contract.
Even with the good deal Smith signed, you basically shave off at least one year of the rookie QB window by paying the QB position that much. If someone you really love falls to you, then you have to consider it. The only player who I think fits that bill is Stroud, and there is no way he falls to Seattle.
Everyone gets excited about Anthony Richardson’s athleticism. There’s a lot to be excited about. There is also the most risk. If Seattle picks a QB to sit behind Geno who flames out, they have doomed themselves to the mediocre middle.
Then why are the Seahawks being so bold about their interest in the young quarterbacks? Why are they saying publicly that they are staying close to these guys and taking selfies posted to the team account?
I have heard people guess it is because they are just having fun with the process or that they are trolling Russell Wilson and his crew for having a chance to draft his replacement with the pick they got for him or that they have legitimate interest. I don’t really buy any of that.
This front office has been incredibly consistent and remarkably vigilant in protecting information about who they want in the draft. They do not publicize this kind of thing, especially for a draft pick as valuable as #5 and at a position as important as quarterback.
The only logical reason for them to put on this media blitz is to convince other teams they want a quarterback so those teams either feel the need to jump them to the 3rd pick to get their guy or trade with Seattle.
I believe Seattle is all-in on Will Anderson, and I think they are doing everything they can to try and manifest his fall to them. Barring that, I would bet they want to trade back and add another second round pick. Either of those reasons check all the logical boxes.
The others all indicate this group has either dramatically changed their approach or have gotten careless. Neither seems plausible.
Skill players (Grade: C+)
Seattle has not added a running back, receiver, or tight end. They get a slightly positive grade here because they did not bring back marginal players like Travis Homer and did not overpay for a really bad free agent receiver free agency group.
It would have been nice to have Rashaad Penny back, but there are plenty of veteran running backs they can sign later and lots of young backs to consider in the draft. I think the 4th or 5th round is the sweet spot there. I would love to pair Chris Warren-clone Zach Charbonnet with Kenneth Walker, but he will probably go too early.
Receiver is a spot where many are confused why Seattle is getting players mocked to them as early as the first round. Tyler Lockett is 30. Even if he sticks around a few more seasons, the team needs a more dynamic third receiving target.
It would be ideal to add a true slot receiver who can be a reliable third down connection for Smith. He’s a smart player who could really take advantage of another smart guy in that spot. That could really free up Lockett and Metcalf on the outside.
The tight end room is a bigger secret issue. Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant are in the last years of their deals and Will Dissly is coming back from another injury that they thought might need surgery but decided it did not. None of these guys has shown true #1 tight end upside.
This draft is full of some really talented tight ends. I would absolutely love to see Darnell Washington picked. He’s a massive young man who almost acts as an extra offensive tackle, but also is a skilled athlete with good hands. He instantly makes the offense tougher.
Michael Mayer is someone who will probably go in the first round and is a tenacious blocker and physical player with the ball in his hands. He reminds me a bit of a slower George Kittle.
Dalton Kincaid and Luke Musgrave are more the receiving tight ends who could pile up the numbers. Either might be more valuable than some of the slot receivers the team could draft.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be an ideal addition, but he likely won’t last until #20. Zay Flowers is also interesting, but I’m not convinced his draft position will match where the Seahawks would value him. Parker Washington is a guy who might be available on day three and be a good fit.
Offensive line (Grade: B+)
This is a group that is on the cusp of being very good, depending on how the Seahawks approach the draft and who falls to them. Signing Evan Brown was a great hedge as he can play either guard or center, and gives them a fine fallback starter if they don’t get their center in this draft (they will though!).
Austin Blythe was not the answer. Brown is more stout than Blythe and is young. Signing Phil Haynes was smart as well since he was essentially a starter last year and played okay. They did not overcommit to him.
This leaves options open in a draft with some really interesting interior line options.
The guy I salivate the most over is John Michael Schmitz. He is a junkyard dog in the middle of the line. He is smart and tough. He is solid in pass protecting and gritty in run blocking. I think the Seahawks like him as much as I do, and it would not shock me if they felt like they had to take him at #20 to be sure they add him to the roster.
Outside of Will Anderson, there may be no player who could make this team better, more quickly, and for longer than Schmitz. Getting a great young center to pair with those tackles would be huge.
Even if they lose out on Schmitz, there are guys like Luke Wypler and Olusegun Oluwatimi who could be good options. Wypler is tough and smart and played at a big school against top competition. Joe Tippman may be an option as well.
The home run is if the Seahawks exit with a center and a guard.
Most fans and analysts know the Seahawks weakness is on defense, so the focus is there. What folks might be missing is that Seattle could be close to creating a real strength by investing in the offensive line.
Remember the first half of the Seahawks playoff game against the 49ers. Remember what the Eagles did to the 49ers defense in the NFC Championship. Limiting the 49ers pass rush by running effectively and being a solid pass protection group is a great game plan against that stacked defense. Your best chance to do that is by having an overpowering offensive line.
Put Schmitz in the middle and add a guy like Cody Mauch at guard, or maybe even Steve Avila or O’Cyrus Torrence, or the craziest option, which would involved adding massive 6’8″ 374 lb Dawand Jones to the group. The Jones scenario, which we should at least consider since the Seahawks have shown interest, involves either the crazy idea of him sliding inside to be a massive guard or having Abe Lucas slide inside.
The point is, I would rather have a guard to compete with Haynes and a center to compete with Brown than just one or the other. Do that with two of your first five picks, and there is reason to be really excited.
Overall (Grade: B+)
I like what Seattle has done to this point. My biggest issues are with how they have handled linebacker and the question marks on the defensive line. They were opportunistic in adding Love and were bold in getting Jones. They were wise at the QB position. The offensive line is primed to take a big step forward. This team is not clearly better than it was last year, yet. They are well positioned to follow the best talent available on their draft board and have back-to-back terrific drafts. That is almost always the only way to really improve the outlook of your club.