Let’s get this out of the way right from the jump: you should be highly skeptical of every grade and take I have on prospects for this draft. I have not watched hours of tape on each player. I have no access to them as people and cannot truly assess whether they are of good character or passion for the game. I am not Xs & Os geek, who can tell you exactly what these players were being asked to do in each play or whether they did what they were asked to do correctly. There are a decent number of these players I have only done superficial analysis based on the analysis of others.
There is another truth that we should all accept: almost everyone else doing mock drafts and big boards are also in the dark about tons of information, making their assessments flawed as well.
For the first time since I have been writing about the Seahawks (over 16 years), I decided it was worth my time to start grading prospects for the upcoming draft. I did it mostly for my own sanity and obsession. It forced me to think not only about the prospects individually, but relative to one another. And not just within position groups, but across positions, like you would in a true draft.
Most of my grades were given relative to my assessment of the individual, but maybe 20% of each grade took into account how I see the player’s value specifically for the Seahawks. Not every player is of equal value to each team.
The result was a fun tour through a draft with tons of value available for the Seahawks to add to their young core. I will likely revisit certain grades, and add more people to the board before the draft begins. For now, rage or rejoice in my assessments, and consider sharing your own.
Big board broken down in different ways
I started my process by simply listing players I was interested in on the “Grades” tab. I then created various views of those players, including by position, by grade, and by predicted draft selection.
The resulting big board should not be considered a pure ranking of who Seattle should draft at every pick. For example, Bijan Robinson is the top player on the board because I think he is most clearly projectable as a repeat Pro Bowl talent. I do not believe Seattle should consider taking him in the first round, but I am not going to deny his talent or projection.
You may also notice that I have designated players a position that might differ from what you see elsewhere. That is because I was grading them based on the position I would expect them to play for Seattle. For example, Peter Skoronski is listed as a tackle most places, but I would expect him to play guard for the Seahawks.
NOTE: There are lots of players missing, including guys that will go in the first round, because I am not interested in them for Seattle or have not spent enough time evaluating.
You can play with the sheet either with the embedded widget below or by opening the sheet via this link.
Notes
The strength of this draft is rounds 2-3
There are a handful of players who rise to the top of this draft, but I would argue none of them are as clean of projections to be stars as some other drafts we have seen. Where this draft stands out is that you may be able to get a guy in the late second round or third round who is extremely close in potential to a guy drafted in the back-half of the first round. I see a ton of players who project to be quality starters. Seattle would be wise to stockpile more picks in those rounds, both by trading back in the first round and by bundling picks to trade up from later rounds.
I see different tranches of value:
- Picks 1-7
- 8-15
- 16-40
- 41-85
- Rest of draft
It would be a mistake to leave without a cornerback
There are a treasure trove of cornerbacks who are potential quality starters, and fit the Seahawks profile for the position, and should be available as late as the 4th or even 5th round. Unlike offensive tackle, which is also a deep position in this draft, Seattle has room and reason to add another corner. As much as I like Tre Brown, he has not played a full season. Michael Jackson has proven himself a passable starter, but not a great one. The impact of adding another great young starter opposite Tariq Woolen should not be underestimated.
Tight end over receiver
The tight ends available early in this draft have more intriguing upside than most of the top receivers in this class. As much as I see Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a clean prospect who is easy to project as a difference maker, he is still primarily a slot receiver. I like Zay Flowers as well, but he’s also a slot guy with a few more question marks than JSN. I see my top three tight ends:
- Michael Mayer
- Darnell Washington
- Luke Musgrave
as having a higher ceiling than any receiver outside of JSN. Dalton Kincaid is lower for me than others because I see him almost exclusively as a receiving tight end, with limited utility for Seattle.
Toughest grades
There were players I really liked that, when forced to truly project what level they would reach in the NFL, became tougher to move up the board. There were other players, who I don’t value as much, that were hard to argue as top-shelf talent.
Will Anderson Jr. – 3-4 Outside Linebacker
This is one of the more difficult players to judge. In part, because so much is on the line for the Seahawks at the #5 pick. Anderson has been a top prospect for years. He is unquestioned in terms of football character, love of the game, work ethic, and leadership. He also is not an eye-popping athlete, has a limited pass rush repertoire, and would be a rotational player for Seattle. I started with him as the only 9.0 grade in the draft, indicating perennial All-Pro potential. I found myself pulling that grade down, and almost wanting to pull it down more. The floor is very high for Anderson, but the ceiling may not be what most assume it to be.
Jalen Carter – Interior Defensive Lineman
I won’t belabor the point with Carter. He has been discussed ad nauseam. I mostly evaluated him as a player on the field. His ceiling seems clearly higher than Anderson. That said, there are enough questions about his character to reduce the likelihood that he will reach that potential.
Devon Witherspoon vs Joey Porter Jr. vs Christian Gonzalez – Outside Cornerbacks
These guys all have things to love. Witherspoon is so darn physical. That is what ultimately put him at the top of the CB list for me. That said, he is the smallest of the bunch. Porter Jr. could easily move ahead of him with his 6’2″ frame and similar aggressive style with proven press expertise. Gonzalez is just smooth. His floor seems pretty high, but I have more questions about his ceiling.
Darnell Washington – Tight End
I am a bit obsessed with Washington. He is easily one of the names who would excite me the most if Seattle called. That clouds my judgment a bit. He is also a little unique as a prospect given he is so massive for the position. I wound up giving him a near-Pro Bowl grade, but someone who likely will be drafted between picks 20-40. He may just end up being a great blocking tight end with occasional contributions through the air. That might be a super valuable skill set for the Seahawks. I also may just be way too biased here.
Andrew Vorhees – Guard
This was a player I loved for Seattle in the second round before he hurt his knee at the combine. He is a great fit for how the Seahawks like to play guard, but now there is the injury to factor in. I wound up grading him at the level I believe he can reach, but projecting him as a day three pick.
Risers
A few players became more interesting as I spent more time evaluating.
Charlie Jones – Slot WR
Jones is a guy who could be a big contributor to the offense without requiring the team to spend a day one or day two pick to acquire him. He is limited in size and upside, which should push him down. He also is great at finding soft spots in zones and making tough catches. He would be great in the fifth round.
Cody Mauch – Guard
The big redhead is raw, but powerful and athletic. He might be my favorite guard prospect for Seattle after Skoronski when factoring in the value of the pick it would cost to acquire him.
Nolan Smith – 3-4 outside linebacker
Smith wowed everyone at the combine with insane athletic scores. He is also known as an excellent person with tremendous passion for the game and leadership skills. He will fall for some because his pass rushing prowess is limited so far and he is an edge player. He is also very light (under 240 lbs) for an edge player. What I see is a guy who excels at stopping the run, has all the movement skills to drop into coverage, and the raw materials to become an effective pass rusher. He is almost the opposite of Darrell Taylor, which makes him a great rotational companion. He could be a great option at #20.
Adjustments will continue
There are less than two weeks until the most momentous Seahawks draft in at least a decade. I am listening to breakdowns of players everyday, watching more film, and reflecting on what Seattle needs and wants. Who I want them to select is not necessarily a good indicator of who they will select. It is a lot of fun when the two lineup, like taking two tackles in the first three rounds last year.
I can make cases for and against nearly every player on my big board. As I said at the outset, there are all sorts of flaws in the system, but it was a lot of fun to do. If it leads to a new thought or good debate for you and other fans, all the better. Let me know which grades stand out to you.