The proliferation of mock draft simulators has thousands of fans producing a never-ending stream of possible outcomes for the Seahawks in this pivotal 2023 NFL Draft. These simulators factor in things like perceived team needs and generalist prospect grades to determine where players will go and how the draft hauls are assessed. A major missing factor is how the general manager of various teams has approached the draft, and approached positions over the years. These tendencies are often more telling and persistent than fans want to admit. The divide between how a GM approaches the draft and what fans perceive as the best value is the gunpowder that leads to fan blowups as unexpected names or positions are called. This article should act as a reference to help anticipate John Schneider’s strategy given what he has done over the past 13 years.
Come to your own conclusions
I took the time to catalog every one of Schneider’s picks, and break them down by position and round drafted. You can play with the sheet either with the embedded widget below or by opening the sheet via this link.
Observations
Offensive tackle has been the position most selected in the first round
Schneider has used four first round picks on tackles. This draft has a ton of tackles, but Seattle also just used a 1st and a 3rd on the position last year and appears in good shape there. They have been willing to draft tackles and slide them inside to guard, but that is misleading. They drafted these guys early to play tackle, and when it was clear that was not going to work, they slid them inside. The lone exception would be Germain Ifedi, who started at guard and went on to be a tackle, but I still believe they drafted him to play tackle.
Seattle does not draft guards or centers early
It is clear the Seahawks would benefit from more guard and center talent on the roster. There are some players who warrant selections even in the first round, and definitely in the second. That would cut against Schneider’s habits. He has only spent one pick ahead of the third round on an interior offensive lineman, and that was Ethan Pocic (2nd round). Pocic was used as, you guessed it, a tackle early in his career and at guard, before settling into center. He was a center primarily in college, and the team drafted him for his versatility, so I will call him a legitimate interior OL pick. Outside of him, no center was taken before the 6th round, and just three players overall. This, despite having a pretty bad run of center play for the last decade or so.
The top picks spent on guard were Damien Lewis, Rees Odhiambo (who could easily be counted as a tackle), and John Moffitt, who were all taken in the 3rd round.
Tight end hit rate has been decent, but never early
Nick Vannett is the highest pick Schneider has made on a tight end (3rd round). He also is one of the worst. Colby Parkinson, Will Dissly, Luke Willson, and Anthony McCoy were all solid picks in the 4th through 6th rounds. There are great tight ends in this class. Some are even mocking one to go to Seattle in the first round. That would very out of character for Schneider.
Wide receiver is highly valued by Schneider
No position has been drafted more often by Schneider than wide receiver. He has taken 16, and that doesn’t include undrafted free agents like Doug Baldwin Jr. and Jermaine Kearse. He has spent more 2nd round picks (4) on this position than any other, and almost all of them have had a decent return. D.K. Metcalf, Golden Tate, and Paul Richardson have been decent-to-great. Dee Eskridge is the outlier. Tyler Lockett in the 3rd round was also a smash. Fourth round and later has been almost all bad. David Moore (7th round) is probably their best receiver pick after the 3rd round. This is a thin receiver class, which coupled with another Schneider draft tendency I’ll cover later, could mean another high round pick on this position.
Edge is arguably the most valued position, nose tackle might be the least
Seattle has spent two 1st (L.J. Collier, Bruce Irvin) and three 2nds (Boye Mafe, Darrell Taylor, Frank Clark) on the defensive end spot. The position is changing a bit in the 3-4 defense, but the premium on edge rushing remains. Contrast that with the fact you could argue the Seahawks have never spent a single draft pick on a nose tackle. Maybe you could consider Jimmy Staten (5th round) in that category, but he’s certainly not a 3-4 nose tackle. Schneider has not placed a real value on run defenders on the line. Even his free agent strategy has been to get cheap veterans (Colin Cole, Ahtyba Rubin, Al Woods, etc.) for this skill set. Those of us who may be enamored with the Mazi Smith and Siaki Ika types in the first two rounds are hoping for a dramatic shift in strategy from Schneider. This points more to the Cameron Young types on day three.
The love of edge could push up the values of guys like Will McDonald IV, and other edge players if Will Anderson Jr. does not fall in their laps at the fifth pick.
Corner might be the strength of this front office and coaching staff
No position might have extracted more return on investment for Seattle than cornerback under Schneider and Pete Carroll. The team has found 11 (!!) starters at this position despite spending only one draft pick before the 4th round, and that was a 3rd on Shaquill Griffin. The hit rate has been remarkably high, even if a number of the players were mediocre or below average starters. Ugo Amadi and Tre Flowers are not picks any Seahawk fan would celebrate, but they accomplished more than Chris Harper or Amara Darboh ever did. This draft has more quality corners than any in recent memory. Seattle has picked a whopping 15 corners over the years. Don’t be surprised if they wait until day three to dip into this talented corner pool.
Schneider strategies
There have also been some patterns to how Schneider has approached pulling players off the board through the years, with varying results.
Overdraft thin positions
Most fans just think about best player available across any position or even best player at a specific position of need for Seattle. Schneider has repeatedly overweighted another factor, which is how many draftable players are there at various position groups of need. For example, part of the reason he took an L.J. Collier in the first round, and Ethan Pocic, Justin Britt, Malik McDowell, and Boye Mafe in the second, is that he knew the team had a need at the position and there was such a big dropoff in talent at that spot that if he did not pick those players there, he would be left likely unable to address that need with any confidence in the draft.
On the surface, that makes sense. I have been more critical of this aspect of Schneider’s strategy than any other, largely because it has forced some really mediocre players too far up the Seattle draft board while letting far more talented players slip past them. Last year was the first time this seemed more muted. We saw Seattle take the most talented player, independent of need, in most spots. Low and behold, it was one of their best drafts.
Based on some interviews, it sounds like Schneider has done some self-scouting and concluded they overweighted “need” in some past drafts. That would show up here. There is a limit. You do not want them drafting five receivers just because they are the highest on the board. Need clearly factors in, but hopefully less than it has at times in the past.
Trade back early, trade up late
Fans and media members talk about Schneider as a trade back guy. The truth is that while he has done that in the first round quite a bit, he has traded up quite a bit in rounds two through seven. When Schneider only sees 14-15 guys as round one picks, and Seattle has been picking in the 20s, he likes to accumulate more draft capital by moving back. That said, we have not seen him trade back in the top ten. We have never seen him trade up in the first round. He does like to use the large number of picks they have to move up and get a guy who is falling in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th round like they did for Metcalf, Lockett, and others.
What it all means
Fans would be wise to keep these Schneider tendencies in mind when determining what is most likely to happen in this upcoming draft for Seattle instead of simply focusing on what they want their favorite team to do.
For example, Jeff Simmons and I have become enthusiastic about a possible plan to trade back from the 5th pick if Anderson is not there and if the team is not interested in Jalen Carter or a quarterback, and take someone like Pete Skoronski to be a Pro Bowl guard, and then take a great center and create a true strength with a talented and young offensive line. Is it realistic that Schneider would:
- Trade back in the top 10 (never done)
- Pick a guard in the top 10 (never drafted one before the 3rd round)
- Pick a center in the first 37 picks (never done, and only one before the 6th round)
Probably not. That does not make it a bad idea. It just is probably wasted breath.
Would they take a talented tight end like Michael Mayer in the first round? Probably not. But is it likely they would jump on a receiver like Zay Flowers or Jaxon Smith-Njigba if one fell to #20? Seems a fair bet given how they have valued that position.
Use this article as a reference to judge how realistic your mock drafts are. It may help you brace for frustration on draft day instead of getting blindsided.