The most consequential draft, possibly in franchise history, started with a first round that did not go as either the Seahawks or draft experts expected. While most fans and analysts wanted or projected either defensive tackle Jalen Carter or quarterback Anthony Richardson at the fifth overall pick, Seattle went with cornerback Devon Witherspoon. Their second choice, the almost unguardable wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, was less of a deviation from predictions. In both cases it appeared Seattle had stuck with the best graded player on their draft board after being unable to track back. There were no reaches, no mad dashes to Google to figure out who this person was. The night ended with Seattle adding the best cornerback in what may be the best cornerback class in decades, and the best receiver who could not be a more ideal fit for what they need.
Why Devon Witherspoon
About 95% of the talk around the Seahawks fifth pick was either Carter, Richardson, or a trade back. Richardson was not available since he was picked fourth by the Colts, so we will never know if he was the top option on Seattle’s board had he fallen to them. Carter was available.
What that means is Carter is not on Seattle’s draft board. It is highly unlikely they graded him low as a football player or for a need that they clearly have on the defensive line. The only explanation for not taking him at five is that they do not believe in who he is as a person.
Much has been made of the arrest for reckless driving that resulted in two deaths, which were not deemed his fault. That was not where I think Carter lost Pete Carroll and John Schneider. It was at his pro day when he showed up out of shape, overweight, and could not even finish his position drills.
Carroll and Schneider covet young men who absolutely love football. They want guys who bring energy and passion to every part of the game. There is possibly nothing more antithetical to their mindset than someone who does not even push himself to finish what are pretty casual practice drills in what was a job interview that could make or lose him millions of dollars.
If he can’t motivate himself to push through that adversity, brought on by previous decisions he made to not be in shape for the session, what would he be like when he had all that money and things got tough during the grind of an NFL career?
I spoke to Cliff Avril, K.J. Wright and other former Seahawks who wanted nothing to do with Carter based on that performance at the pro day. His visit to the VMAC was clearly not enough to convince Schneider or Carroll to look past it.
Seattle was not alone. Detroit was widely expected to leap to the podium to call Carter’s name if Seattle passed. They did not. Neither did the Raiders or Falcons. Ultimately, the team with most of the Georgia defense already in tow, decided to add another Bulldog when the Eagles picked him at number nine.
Carter may ultimately thrive there next to his former teammate and alpha, Jordan Davis. That Eagles defense is good enough that Carter will not need to be the focal point. That will not change how Schneider or Carroll feel about their process. You simply cannot select a player who you do not believe is a person you want in the locker room.
They went, instead, with their top player on the board. Witherspoon has impeccable makeup. He not only loves the game, he loves hitting people and playing with an infectious edge that Seattle covets. He is excellent in coverage, excellent in run support, and excellent in playmaking.
If you have read, listened to, and watched enough draft coverage in the past few months, you would hear that many saw Witherspoon as one of a very small handful of players in this draft with the potential to be a true blue chip addition. Blue chip, referring to the notion that the player could become one of the best at his position across the league, an All-Pro.
Pro Football Focus had him as the fourth-best player overall. Almost nobody had him being selected later than sixth or seventh. This is a guy who just had one of the best seasons for a cornerback in college football history. He erased whoever he was guarding.
He can play either side of the field and also slide inside if needed. He most likely becomes the starter opposite Tariq Woolen. That could change depending on the performance of Michael Jackson, Coby Bryant, and Tre Brown.
The team loves Jackson as a physical and feisty corner as well. Brown had shown flashes of Pro Bowl potential before being injured as a rookie. Bryant came on strong in the slot. Any of Brown, Bryant or Witherspoon could find their way into the slot role. Any of Jackson, Brown, or Witherspoon could start opposite Woolen.
Seattle now has corner depth that truly rivals the Legion of Boom days when future starters like Byron Maxwell and Jeremy Lane were backups.
As much as Seattle desperately needs help on the defensive line interior, they just helped their run defense and pass rush by creating a secondary that should be capable of playing more man coverage than almost any in the league.
The more you can trust your corners to guard their guys one-on-one, the more men you can commit to the box to stop the run, the more you can blitz, the more time your pass rush has to get home. It is not the linear path of just getting beefier and more talented upfront, but just remember the Super Bowl defense was built from the secondary forward.
Why Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seattle has Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf as one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. Many casual fans may think it makes no sense to spend such a valuable pick on a position Seattle is already strong. Look deeper.
Lockett is 31-years-old. Both he and Metcalf are set to count $24M against the cap in 2024. Even if Lockett continues to produce at the levels he has, his time in Seattle is closer to an end than most realize.
Even if you remove the future of Lockett from the equation, the Seahawks have been absolutely awful in the slot since Doug Baldwin Jr. retired. There have been busts and retreads and frustrating failures. That was a little less of an issue when the aging Russell Wilson was at quarterback as he had increasingly relied on deep passes.
Geno Smith is a smart quarterback who reads defenses pre-snap, and throws with accuracy, timing, and anticipation. The total lack of slot production last season was glaring. A great slot receiver thinks along with his quarterback, reading and reacting to defensive coverages almost in hive mind unison. When those two players connect and have the talent to exploit that connection, it becomes almost unguardable.
Sure enough, Smith-Njigba has been described as exactly that by many people multiple times. How unguardable? Try 15 catches for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns in a bowl game. This guy was the best receiver on a team that produced Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, with Wilson winning Rookie of the Year last year and Olave finishing fourth in the voting.
He is not the guy who takes the top of the defense as a deep threat. He wins with elite agility. His 3.93 second 20-yard shuttle was the fastest by a receiver at the combine in a decade. His 6.57 time in the 3-cone drill was the fastest of any receiver in the draft. He can stop and start on a dime. He can change direction faster than a politician.
So much is made about size and speed in the NFL at the receiver position, but agility and body control are often the better predictor of receiver success. Add in intelligence on how to read a defense and instincts for timing and you have a very dangerous weapon.
Smith-Njigba is not a small guy either. He stands over 6’1″ and weighs more than 200 pounds.
Putting a player like that in this offense to work with a quarterback as smart and prepared as Geno Smith, and you are going to see defenses incredibly stressed about how to guard all the weapons. Plenty of teams have started to double both Lockett and Metcalf over the years, with safeties playing over the top of the corners who are guarding them, daring Seattle to throw the ball elsewhere.
They had some success throwing to their tight ends last year, but none of those guys are close to as dangerous as Smith-Njigba. He will quickly become a primary focus for secondaries, which will mean either Lockett or Metcalf will enjoy more single coverage. Good luck with that.
Smith-Njigba is not solely a slot player either. Should there be an injury or Seattle eventually moves on from Lockett, he can move outside and be a top-tier producer there as well. Numerous coaches and teammates have called him the best route runner they have ever played with. He is going to be an excellent Seahawk.
Premium positions
Many fans may not understand the role positional value can and should play in where draft picks are utilized. The idea of positional value is pretty simple. Some positions cost more than others. Quarterbacks, for example, cost a ton more than any other position. Centers cost less than almost any other position.
What you want to do in the draft, especially early on, is get players at positions that will provide the greatest spread between what you will be paying them and what the market would pay. That is why so many quarterbacks get picked early, even if they seem like reaches. A quarterback that hits in the first round is a bargain only bettered by a quarterback that hits in later rounds (although, first round QBs are secured for an extra year on their rookie deal).
Two of the other most expensive positions in the NFL are cornerback and receiver. Even the relatively hefty salary Witherspoon will get as the fifth pick will rank around 27th in the NFL among corners. Smith-Njigba’s salary as the 20th pick will rank close to 60th among receivers in the league. Should they both turn out the way most expect, they will be among the biggest bargains in the league, allowing Seattle to spend money elsewhere on the roster.
As much as I want a center and a guard and a stout defensive tackle (the nose tackle types), those positions are simply not valued the same way. Case in point, Seattle just signed what could be their starting center for just over $2M. I still expect them to take a center, perhaps as early as the second round, but it is important to understand how much positional value plays a role in how teams set up their draft boards.
The nits
It is hard to quibble with a first round that nets your team the best cornerback and the best wide receiver. Still, I sensed Schneider was not thrilled with how the night went during his press conference.
I largely attribute to that to being unable to trade back from either pick. Seattle took both picks down to the wire before turning in the card for the guys they took, which indicates they were desperately trying to trade back.
By not trading back, there is significantly more pressure on their next three picks at 37, 52, and 83. The team needs multiple defensive linemen, a center, a linebacker, a guard. There are also some great tight ends. The quality falls off quite a bit after those three picks. Schneider knows that and likely was doing whatever he could to add another pick in the second or third round.
He even mentioned that they’d be active today. They have two fifth round picks. I fully expect them to try and package picks and possibly Noah Fant to try and trade up for another second or third. It is vital that they find a way to do that.
Just adding one more pick would be huge. Short of that, look for them to move up from 83 to higher in the third round.
It takes two to make a deal, and clearly the Seahawks did not get the deal they wanted. Let us hope they find that deal today. I am optimistic.
Strong start
There have been plenty of years where we as Seahawks fans have scratched our heads at Schneider’s draft strategy in the first round. He has picked odd positions and odd players, and the ones picked toward the end of the first round have not often worked out. We have been left to twist ourselves into pretzels attempting to justify and understand the logic, while trying to trust a general manager who had so much success finding talent where draft experts did not early in his tenure.
That changed last year as the Seahawks made logical pick after logical pick. I may not have been a fan of the positional value of Kenneth Walker, but I had no doubt about his talent. There is a strong signal that the team is once again avoiding the trap of allowing team needs to tempt them into taking a player far too high in the draft.
As simple as it may sound, it takes a ton of discipline to take the best player available instead of the one who most fills a need. Neither corner nor receiver was close to the biggest need for the Seahawks coming into this draft. Had Schneider overweighted need, they likely would have exited with inferior players. That is a losing strategy in the long run.
There are fans in Detroit right now who are wondering how they went from expecting to add Carter or Witherspoon to getting a running back and a middle linebacker. Both players may prove to be solid additions, but the positional value is awful and the opportunity cost is astronomical. Those two choices may dramatically reduce the ceiling for a franchise that was building toward something special.
Schneider and the Seahawks made logical choices on players with high upsides and massive positional value that create two of the most talented position groups in the NFL. Even if I was disappointed that Jalen Carter did not prove to be the man Seattle needed him to be, I am thrilled to exit day one of this pivotal draft with a team that is clearly better than it was 24 hours earlier. Day two will be critical to determining how much closer the Seahawks are to true contenders in an NFC that appears to have only one or two great rosters.