What you will read and hear from most sports coverage and Seahawks fans is that the Seattle offense blew a game and Geno Smith was awful. It is true that the Seahawks lost a game they had every opportunity to win, and those are the games you regret as playoff seeding settles late in the year. It is also true that Smith made some inexcusable errors that contributed to the loss. This is one of those exceedingly rare moments, though, where the Seahawks ceiling was raised even when the result was a loss.
There was no debate coming into this season that the Seahawks offense was the strongest part of the team. They had no clear weaknesses, only some question marks. The defense, on the other hand, was more a discussion of how bad they would be. Optimistic fans were hoping they might be a middle-of-the-pack unit.
Those expectations seemed roughly accurate as the Seahawks offense scored 37 points in two of their first three games, despite missing large chunks of their offensive line, and were ranked in the top five in scoring. Two fewer Jason Myers missed field goals would have had them as the second-highest scoring team in the NFL through three weeks.
The defense was giving up tons of yards through the air and at least 27 points in each of those games. Those optimistic fans who thought they might be mediocre were looking like foolish homers.
Had that outline of a team hardened in the coming weeks, a strong (but not dominant) offense and an awful defense, the best hope for this season would have been a playoff appearance. Worse than that, the ceiling for what this young team could achieve in future seasons would be far from contending for a Super Bowl.
What has happened over the last two weeks paints a very different picture.
The Seahawks defense has turned in two elite performances. First, dominating a bad Giants team, and then slamming the door on a revived Bengals offense. Both games were on the road. Neither left much room for criticism. How good have they been?
They have allowed the fewest points. They have allowed the second-fewest yards, and second-fewest yards per play. They have the best expected points added (EPA), by a mile (pictured above). True, two games is a small sample size.
Seattle has the fourth-ranked defense by EPA since week two of the season. They are 10th in points allowed over that span. They are 6th in opponent yards per play. They are first in sacks per game. They are second in pressures per game.
If numbers are not your love language, consider who they just shut down. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have been in the AFC Championship each of the last two seasons. He had outdueled Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Despite starting the year with bad numbers, every indication was that he was back to good health last week.
The Bengals also got back 6’4″ receiver Tee Higgins. Ja’Marr Chase is in the conversation for best in the game at his position. He had just gone off for 15 catches, nearly 200 yards in 3 TDs the week prior.
That offense looked very difficult to stop for the first two possessions. Seattle was not getting burned, but they were also unable to cover the myriad of targets Burrow was hitting or able to get a hand on him as quickly as he was getting rid of the ball.
Then the Seahawks defense turned the spigot shut until barely a drip of offense would come the rest of the day. Cincinnati would not have another drive over 20 yards. Chase, who had 4 catches in 5 targets for 60 yards in those first two drives, would have 2 catches in 8 targets for 20 yards from then on.
Burrow would finish the day with the lowest passing yard total at home (185 yards) in his career. Chase caught fewer than 50% of the passes thrown his way (6 of 13) for just the second time in his career, when being targeted at least 10 times.
The only points the Bengals scored came on a drive where they gained exactly zero yards.
This was suffocating. Seattle’s defense vacuum sealed an MVP candidate and one of the best receivers in the game on the road after they got off to a jogging start. Even when they gave up the two opening touchdowns, there were few obvious errors outside of jumping offside on fourth down.
Unlike last year when the Seahawks defense put up great numbers for 3-4 weeks, these performances pass the sniff test.
I spent that whole stretch last season wondering aloud how the defense was doing what they were doing. The results did not match the talent. How could that crew be a top five defense? The couldn’t. The numbers returned to matching the talent and the floor dropped for what that team could hope to accomplish that season.
This crew played their true starting secondary for the first time this year against the Bengals. Tre Brown was back, and had two dazzling plays after doing the same in his last full game against the Lions. Devon Witherspoon had three more pass breakups and gave up nothing. Jamal Adams played his first full game and was everywhere he was supposed to be, while being a sure tackler. Riq Woolen, Quandre Diggs, and Julian Love had their moments as well.
I do not believe Witherspoon or Brown are flukes. They may actually get better. Adams may get hurt, but that’s the case with every player on the field. When he plays, the team is better for it.
The defensive line has definitely been a surprise, but they have done it for five weeks now. Jarran Reed had another sack. Joe Mixon had nowhere to run.
Boye Mafe continues his rise, with a sack in each of the last three games. There is every reason to think he will get better.
The inside linebacker play from Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks has been excellent. There are more questions about what happens there over the next two years, but there is little reason to expect regression this year.
Collectively, this defense appears to be capable of being a top ten unit the rest of the way. They look like they can win games in spite of the offense, not just because of it. That dramatically reshapes the outline of this team by giving them more ways to win.
It also indicates that Clint Hurtt, Karl Scott and the defensive coaching staff may have a handle on how to run that group. That would be almost as significant as the development of the players.
You may be screaming at your screen by now, “BUT THEY LOST!!!” Well, hold your breath, because this next part may frustrate you even more.
Smith deserves criticism for this game, but nowhere near the level we are witnessing across many fans and media members. What he did that was absolutely on him and cannot happen:
- Threw an interception in the red zone (on a play that was never really there)
- Did not get a pass off on 4th down in the red zone on the second-to-last possession
- Did not get a pass off on 4th down in the red zone on the last possession
Those were all game losing decisions. He deserves plenty of criticism for those. It is a little harder to take him to task for the other offensive issues in this game.
His other interception came on a play where D.K. Metcalf stopped running his route. He held onto the ball too long numerous times, but that appeared to be due to a game plan from Shane Waldron that involved a lot of intermediate-to-deep routes and because receivers were not getting open. They went 1 for 5 in the red zone, but the running game was non-existent after the first series, his pass protection deteriorated as the game wore on, and there were some costly penalties.
Besides all that, people seem to be ignoring all the gorgeous throws he made to get to the red zone in the first place. Seattle had seven explosive passes (16+ yards). That was the second-best total in the NFL this week, and the third-best total for the Seahawks offense this season, behind the Detroit and Carolina games.
Smith would have had another had Metcalf been able to hold onto a perfect throw along the left sideline earlier in the game when the defensive back made a terrific play on the ball.
It would not surprise me if Smith led the NFL in big-time throws this week. Those are throws are defined as, “passes with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Does that excuse his mistakes? Absolutely not. Is a quarterback ultimately measured by being able to win games in the clutch? Yes. But this notion that he was awful in this game feels much more like either hyperbole born of frustration or people who are still looking for a reason to jump ship for another signal caller. Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts had far worse days for their teams and I doubt their teams are looking for a new quarterback. Heck, Burrow did as well.
I rarely do this, but we should also tip our caps to the Bengals defense. They played an outstanding game. Their defensive game plan was excellent, and their coverage was great. Their weakness this season has been defending the run, and Seattle could not sustain their strong start on the ground. That was really the key to the game.
Had Seattle been able to run the ball effectively, there would have been less pressure on Smith to carry the team through the air, which would have reduced the need for that battered offensive line to hold up in pass protection.
I think we will find that running backs also had a very bad day in pass protection. There were a few egregious missed blocks that people will blame linemen for, but were not their assignment.
The truth is that the Seahawks have not played a single game with more than 60% of their starting offensive line. Very few offenses can sustain good play in that situation. Even fewer can do it when the opponent plays very well and schemes well.
This team needs either Abe Lucas to come back and stay healthy, or they need a different right tackle. It might be time to give Jason Peters a try.
The offense, though, is in a different place than the defense. We have already seen what they are capable of when healthy. We saw players like Jake Bobo and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have their best games, with every reason to think they will get better. We know Lucas is a much better player than Jake Curhan. We know Smith does not throw two interceptions in a game very often.
What we did not know before this game was that this defense could be very good. That new reality opens up possibilities that make this season, and the ones that follow, far more fun.