Predicting NFL seasons is difficult. There are so many variables. It tends to be easier to anticipate broader, directional, aspects of a season or a team. Nobody is surprised the Chiefs offense is good or the 49ers defense is tough. If you had asked Seahawks fans before this season whether their offense or defense had a better chance to rank among the top five in the league, nearly every single one would have said the offense. Heck, even after three weeks of the season, they would have doubled down. We might have all been wrong.
Devon Witherspoon and Jamal Adams have turned a flawed defense into a fierce one. Injuries and some poor decisions by Geno Smith have, unfortunately, turned an explosive offense into a meek one at the same time. The result is a team that is frustrating for different reasons. Instead of needing to score 30+ points to win, they may have to hold teams under 15 points to avoid losing.
The optimistic perspective is that there are reasons to expect this offense to return to form, or at least improve. Seattle, once again, played without 60% of their starting offensive line. They played without D.K. Metcalf and Zach Charbonnet. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo are gaining steam as young players. It is always more realistic to hope a unit becomes something it has been in the past than to hope it becomes something it has never been.
That less realistic scenario has happened with this Seahawks defense, and that is why there is reason to be excited in spite of some lackluster results on the scoreboard. This was a run defense that was nauseating last year. Fans had to look away as even mediocre opponents ran around and over the Seahawks. A jaw-dropping 11 of 17 games saw Seattle surrender 140+ yards on the ground. In a sport where physical dominance is a central aspect in determining pecking order, it felt quite hopeless.
This is now one of the best run defenses in football through seven weeks. Nobody could have predicted that level of leap. Through three weeks of this season, Seattle could not stop the pass. Coverage was rough. Pass rush was largely non-existent. That has similarly changed from Clark Kent into Superman before our eyes.
Seattle leads the league in sacks since week four. They lead the league in expected points added (EPA) per dropback over that same period. Those easy dump-offs for big yards after catch have vanished. They are not getting beat deep either, allowing the fewest explosive passes in the NFL during this time.
While predicting many things about the NFL is tough, there are some things that are as reliable as dark winter days in Seattle. NFL offenses are like water. They will flow in the direction of least resistance and greatest progress. If run defense is a weakness, they will attack it mercilessly, as they did last year. If you dam that up, as Seattle did to start this season, they will attack you through the air. It will find any gap, down to the individual player. Good outsider corners, but weak nickel guy? Expect that to be exploited. Good at taking away deep passes, but weak against underneath routes? Offenses will find it.
This Seahawks defense is doing something that has not been done since the Legion of Boom days. They are leaving no weakness to attack. It was not long ago that Riq Woolen was considered the best corner on the roster, and teams would avoid throwing at him. There is good case to be made that he is the third-best corner on this team right now. If he is your weak spot, you are in good shape.
Seattle is doing things that have not been done around here in a long time. They have allowed 250 yards or less in three straight games. They have allowed 4.0 yards (4.04, to be exact) per play or less in three straight games. Neither of those feats has been done since the 2015 season.
People will point to the opponents they faced, but those same folks will ignore that Seattle gave up 27 points, 378 yards, and 5.0 yards per play to Andy Dalton and the Panthers one week before this streak began. They will also ignore that Joe Burrow and the Bengals had regained their title contender form the week prior and started the game against Seattle on fire. Even more, they will forget that the Seahawks offense has made their lives nearly impossible with lack of support and a growing number of turnovers.
How hard is it to win a game when you lose the turnover battle by at least three? It had not happened for the Seahawks since the miraculous NFC Championship game against the Packers, and had happened only five times in franchise history before they did it against the Cardinals.
There has been only one other time the team lost the turnover battle by at least three and won by at least 10 points. That was back in 2003, also against the Cardinals.
Plenty of weak opposing offense have been made to look like juggernauts by the Seahawks defense in the past 5-8 years. People would be wise to appreciate great play when they see it.
None of this means they will maintain this level of dominance when they face better competition. That’s not even a logical expectation. Good defense in the NFL is like a headwind. There may be faster and slower planes, but each of them is slowed down by the same relative rate by the wind (please don’t shame me with aerodynamics equations in the comments). This defense used to be a tailwind for opponents, making them look better than they were. They are very much now a headwind, and they are gusting.
Witherspoon came close to having his second NFC Defensive Player of the Week game in three games. His interception and sack were wiped away by some questionable penalties. They do not wipe away his play on the field.
The sack was a thing of beauty. He disguised the blitz wonderfully, never moving closer to the line ahead of the snap, never flinching on the hard count. He took off with ferocity at the snap, defeated the block in front of him and dragged down a good running quarterback. Chef’s kiss.
There was a time when a young corner was elevated to a starting role partway through his rookie season, and I started charting opposing quarterbacks passer rating before he started versus after. It was night and day. He was one of the clearest examples of the impact of a shutdown corner I had seen in all the years I have watched the Seahawks. His name was Richard Sherman.
Witherspoon is having a similar impact. Even though he got fooled in his very first start against the Lions, the Seahawks have the second best defense in the NFL (by EPA/play) since Witherspoon got on the field in week two.
Adams is having a real impact as well, albeit with less flash. One of the things I love about Adams play is how it is not gimmicky or contrived. He is played smart, tough, and effective defense in all aspects. He has flashed in coverage, in pass rush, in run defense. Maybe his most impressive trait has been tackling in space. He has made fantastic tackles in two straight weeks where, had he missed, the offensive player could have gained a huge chunk of yards. Neither of the tackles were ones most NFL defenders could make. Most players do not get on the highlights for making tackles five yards downfield, but you better believe they are being played on repeat in the VMAC film room.
The additions of Witherspoon and Adams has allowed some other players to step forward. Jordyn Brooks was the best player on the field Sunday. It was his best game as a Seahawk. He was everywhere.
Brooks has been a good-but-not-great player for much of his career. He has also been stuck on some really bad defenses with bad defensive linemen in front of him and other linebackers who were not great. Everyone being assignment-correct is giving him the chance to play a more attacking style. He can trust his teammates. Good things start to happen when defenders do their jobs and others know they can focus on doing theirs.
One glaring counterexample to that on this defense right now is Darrell Taylor. Taylor is a player I have defended as a better pass rusher than people gave him credit for. He finished with 1.5 sacks in this game, but his run defense remains absolutely atrocious. If Uchenna Nwosu’s pectoral injury is serious, Taylor will have to dramatically change his approach to setting the edge as a run defender if this defense hopes to continue being excellent.
The offense was far from excellent. Smith started the game looking like he was ready to put the debacle last week behind him. He was 16/19 with 2 TDs and 0 INT to start the game. He had made a number of gorgeous throws and had an inspiring scramble for the pylon where he got flipped. It all unraveled from there.
He threw a bad interception, fumbled a snap, and was unable to put the game away. It is harder to put those plays on the offensive line this time. We will see what the grades show, but it looked like Stone Forsythe held up better than Jake Curhan has been (very low bar), and Olu Oluwatimi seemed to hold his own at center.
It is possible that the fumble was partially due to lack of reps between Oluwatimi and Smith, but the interception was purely a bad decision.
Smith does not have to be Patrick Mahomes for this team to win. He can be the 2005 version of Matt Hasselbeck, and that would be plenty. He needs to get back to eliminating errors more than he needs to make a bunch of great passes.
Shane Waldron also needs to scheme up some easier throws. Smith had numerous pinpoint passes with great timing. As pretty as those are, you would like to have those be a lower percentage of successful plays. It is a little like a pitcher in baseball who has a lot of high leverage pitches versus one who does not. Make it easy on your quarterback if you can.
Kenneth Walker had one of his best games. With Charbonnet out, there was a real chance the Seahawks coaches were going to give his carries to DeeJay Dallas. Ick. Thankfully, they gave them all to Walker. He carried 26 times for over 100 yards in what was his most workmanlike performances as a pro.
He had his normal explosive play or two, but most of the work was done between the hashes and required grinding it out. He was a big part of this win.
Bobo and Smith-Njigba did their part as well. Sans Metcalf, the Seahawks utilized their rookie wideouts all over the field. Smith-Njigba started strong with a number of quick routes over the middle and some third down conversions. He also had one of those few easy passes for Smith that resulted in the first touchdown of his career.
Bobo managed to steal the spotlight with a catch so hard to believe, I didn’t believe it. Neither did the refs, who ruled it incomplete. Pete Carroll threw a challenge flag, and I was screaming, “Don’t waste your challenge!!!” Being wrong is super underrated.
Bobo not only made a remarkable contested catch, but tapped the tippiest of toes on the green grass to complete the play and notch his second career touchdown.
It is not clear that the Seahawks offense would have been much better with Metcalf on the field. The jury is out on whether that is an indictment of Metcalf or Waldron.
Seattle now gets Dee Eskridge back, and you have to wonder if there is a spot for him.
Metcalf sounds pretty banged up, so it might be another week or two before he is back on the field. That may be a good things for the development of these young receivers.
The Seahawks will get a different type of test this week when the Cleveland Browns and their dominant defense come to town. Gardner Minshew and the Colts managed to put up 38 points against them, but I would not expect anything close to that from this Seahawks offense that will still be missing Abe Lucas and who knows who else on the offensive line.
This is a game Seattle may need to win 9-6. The wild part is that they are now capable of winning that sort of game. This defense will get a chance to strengthen their care for being one of the best in the NFL. The Browns will face a headwind on their way to Seattle, and they better brace for turbulence.