It took a few days to sit down and write this column about the Seahawks latest loss to the 49ers. I started the custom of waiting until the morning after games to write because I was too emotional on the day of games to achieve any sort of perspective. Emotion, however, was not the reason it took me extra time to write about this one. The reason was far worse: indifference. I came to the conclusion last week after the Rams loss that this Seahawks team was not only mediocre, but they may be stuck there. Nothing that happened in the loss to San Francisco changed that perspective.
While I have seen plenty of reactions about this game proved we needed new coaches and a new quarterback, I think that would be like trying to slap a new paint job and maybe a kitchen remodel on a 1,000 square foot home and calling it a mansion. This home isn’t even in the right neighborhood.
Some may read that as a defense of Pete Carroll or Geno Smith. It is not. Go ahead and fire the head coach. Waive Smith after this season. It is possible a new coach could breathe life into the franchise. But even the most optimistic outcome there is that you find a coach that maximizes your offensive talent while at least maintaining the current level of the defense. Folks, that is not enough.
The 49ers have five players on offense who are either playing at an All-Pro level or have been an All-Pro in recent years. They have four players on the defense that meet that bar. That is 9 All-Pro level players. Seattle has Devon Witherspoon and Bobby Wagner. Wagner is already a liability in coverage due to his age, so this feels a lot more like one, and Witherspoon has not yet achieved that honor yet.
It goes further. Brock Purdy is not one of those 9 players I mentioned earlier, and very well could end up being on that list this season. Kyle Juszczyk used to be an All-Pro, but that was many years ago. Chase Young and Arik Armstead and Dre Greenlaw and Charvarius Ward and Tashaun Gipson were not included either. These are all players who could either make a Pro Bowl or be on the cusp of one.
The talent gap between the 49ers and the Seahawks is massive. It is far too large to think a new coach would close it to the point where the Seahawks would be the better team. People seem fixated on this notion of being competitive. Screw that. I’m focused on what it would take to be the favored team, the alpha team.
You can hang your hat on the franchise quarterback route. While I absolutely believe the Seahawks should be drafting a quarterback every year until they find a great one, that process is a total lottery ticket. The chances that you will not find a truly franchise-elevating quarterback are exponentially higher than the chances that you will. You need to roll those dice each season to hope you win (which John Schneider has not done in 12 of his 14 drafts with Seattle), but your more reliable way to build a contender is to create a true talent advantage across the other 21 starting positions in a way that lowers the bar for just how good your quarterback has to be in order to win a ring. Doing that, dramatically expands the number of quarterbacks who can get you to where you want to go.
Even doing that is very challenging. Think of the Cowboys. They went from Tony Romo to Dak Prescott. Both are very good quarterbacks. Prescott has been in the league so long that the running back he entered the league with, Ezekiel Elliott is close to retirement. They have some great players on the offensive line. They have Micah Parsons. Daron Bland is scoring more points than the Seahawks offense. What do you think their chances are of winning the Super Bowl this year? Close to zero, right? How many trips to the Super Bowl have they had during the career of Prescott and Romo? Zero is the correct answer.
That is a team with more All-Pro level players than Seattle. They got absolutely waxed by the 49ers. They are also below the Eagles. It is not clear they would be the favorite against the Lions. That is just the NFC.
Put a new coach on the Cowboys, I don’t think they materially change their odds to win a ring. Go get a new quarterback. How many players are going to be clearly better than Prescott? Odds are better that this Cowboys team sinks back to rebuilding as Prescott ages than that they will win a ring.
None of this is to say you should not try to improve through coaching changes or the quarterback position. Every avenue should be explored. My primary point is that is not enough if your goal is to make it back on that podium.
Here is the list of players I believe have enough youth and upside to be part of a championship team:
- Devon Witherspoon
- Tre Bown
- Riq Woolen
- Boye Mafe
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Kenneth Walker
- Zach Charbonnet
The jury is out on Charles Cross and Abe Lucas. The cupboard is not bare. I do have questions about how many of those guys can ascend to being among the top 2-5 at their position in the NFL.
The offensive line should be a far bigger area of focus for fans than it has been. They were dominated in this game at every position except for left tackle. This team needs to invest heavily in the guard position. A disaster would be for them to give a big money deal to Jordyn Brooks, who is a good-but-not-elite player. He is LeRoy Hill. He is Anthony Simmons. I like him a lot, but he’s exactly the type of player at exactly the type of position you cannot sink big money into. That money should go to the offensive and defensive line.
Damien Lewis has not given any indication he is more than a league-average starter. Giving him a big money extension would also be a mistake. Every player you give big money to who is not an All-Pro blocks the potential of adding a player of that caliber. You are less likely to draft or acquire a player who has that upside if you already have someone signed to big money, and young players are less likely to get snaps they need.
If you are reading all this and screaming, “but the offensive game plan against the 49ers was awful,” you are correct. Shane Waldron once again came out with a poor plan and stubbornly stuck with it. The idea that the best option was to throw deep to D.K. Metcalf was so terribly flawed as to be worthy of any criticism you want to lob his way.
Metcalf has never shown the ability to make contested catches downfield or draw pass interference penalties by generating contact or highpointing the ball. There was no reason to expect the offensive line to hold up against this 49ers pass rush. Oh, and your quarterback has an injured throwing arm. But, sure, give it a shot.
When Metcalf then drops a number of passes in the game, the pass protection is even worse than expected, and the first try was not even close to working, MAKE A FREAKING ADJUSTMENT!! Instead, Waldron went back to the well multiple times.
This was a game where you saw the immense talent of Smith-Njigba, and got even more evidence that Waldron has no idea how to utilize him. The run game was unimaginative and underutilized.
Mostly, though, this looked like an overmatched group lacking in confidence.
Where we did see some progress was on the defensive side of the ball. That might sound odd in a game where the 49ers scored 30 points. Seattle did a good job in defending the pass in this game.
George Kittle had one of his worst games of the season. Brandon Aiyuk, who has been one of the best receivers in the league, was held to a season-low two catches, and had only one before the final touchdown. Purdy had less than 200 yards passing until that final drive, and one of his lowest passer rating games of the year.
Their points came from a great opening drive and then a lot of really short fields due to the Seahawks offense being ineffective and pinned back. The Seahawks defense wound up outscoring the Seahawks offense 7-6.
Where they struggled was in run defense and when their linebackers were in coverage. Kyle Shanahan remains arguably the best scheme designer and play caller in the game. There were some really easy throws he created for his quarterback, which is the case in every game. Christian McCaffrey also broke a bunch of tackles.
Seattle created some decent pressure from the line in this game, especially from Leonard Williams, but the chances of slowing this 49ers offense when they are effective in running the ball is next to nothing.
I have seen people say this game proved the Seahawks had not closed the gap with the 49ers. That is flat wrong. This defense, especially, is far better equipped to play this team than the one last year. The more accurate statement is they have not closed the gap enough to be competitive.
Where this leaves the Seahawks is staring in the mirror, not liking what they see. They are irrelevant this season. They will hopefully win a few games you might not expect them to win and possibly make the playoffs with a middling record without any chance to advance very far. It is a player evaluation period. Abe Lucas is due back. Is he part of the future or is his chronic injury something that causes you go to go back to drawing board at right tackle? Is it time to start playing Olu Oluwatimi? I think so. Should Devin Bush start getting more snaps to see how he can help as a coverage linebacker? Yes. Should Coby Bryant get some snaps at safety to see if he can be part of the answer there when you have to drop the Quandre Diggs contract next year? Yes.
Seattle had the second most draft capital in the NFL last season, and they did not do enough to create a roster with championship potential. They arguably had a worse draft than the Rams who had much less to work with. It will take some remarkable fortune to overcome that failure and create a ceiling above the mediocre middle of the NFL. The best chance for that to happen is honestly a new owner. I may not like Jeff Bezos, but I believe he would apply the kind of pressure and analytical thinking that would create better outcomes. Someone smart. Someone who only accepts the best. Someone with deep pockets. It is the hardest thing to replace, but may be the most important change the Seahawks could make in the coming years.