Most teams that have won five out of six games and first place in their division are lauded. These Seattle Seahawks have no such luck. National media, advanced analytics sites, and many data-driven fans question the staying power of this team. They have faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (2nd-easiest by some measures). Sure, they have a quality win on the road against the 6-2 Detroit Lions, but let’s not talk about that.

Most folks see Geno Smith, and a bunch of guys either too young to be well-known or too old to take seriously. This is a mediocre team, propped up by an easy schedule and Pete Carroll’s psychological magic tricks.

This week represents a chance to change that narrative. One game can mean more than all the games that came before it.

The Baltimore Ravens are generally considered the best team in football to this point in the season. Lamar Jackson, their quarterback, is the leading candidate for MVP. They pass well. They run well. They defend well. Their special teams are solid.

This is a team with no clear weakness. They are mostly healthy, and they eviscerated the last good team to roll into their stadium. That would be the very Lions team Seattle counts as their quality win.

Vegas has Baltimore as a 5.5 point favorite at this point, with a 42.5 over/under, implying a 24-19 win for the Ravens. That makes sense.

Jackson is electric. Zay Flowers is a dynamic rookie receiver. The defense is well constructed, with strength on the interior defensive line, the edges, linebackers, corners, and safeties. The logical outcome here is for the Ravens to send Seattle home with a loss.

This may be a game, though, that defies logic. At least, conventional logic. The Seattle defense has the players to make life difficult for Jackson and his favorite targets. The addition of Leonard Williams is one that gives them some element of surprise, as there is no film to study and understand how he will be used.

The bigger question will be whether the Seahawks offense can find a way to attack this formidable Ravens defense. It happened when they scored 17 first quarter points against what was considered the best defense in football last week. It will need to happen again for Seattle to find their way to a win in this one.

The Ravens have the edge in this one, but it’s not by as much as many believe, and there is a plausible path to an upset here for the Seahawks.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

This series is sponsored by Sarah and Chris Rood, huge Seahawks fans and Hawk Blogger patrons. Please thank them by contacting them to work with them on your next home purchase or sale in the Seattle area. They will donate an additional $500 to Ben’s Fund for every closed transaction!

Seahawks Offense vs Ravens Defense

Ravens key advantages on defense

The Ravens lead the league in sacks, but this is not the dominant pass rushing team Seattle just saw in the Browns. Baltimore ranks 18th in pass rush grade by PFF (vs CLE being 2nd). They appear to be a great pass rushing team because their coverage is excellent, ranking first overall.

They have two excellent safeties in Kyle Hamilton and Geno Stone. Stone has 5 interceptions on the year. They also have quality corners in Brandon Stephens, Ronald Darby, and Marlon Humphrey. Even backups like CB Rock Ya-Sin and S Marcus Williams are quality players.

Unlike most teams, their linebackers can cover as well. Roquan Smith sports an elite 90.1 coverage grade, and Patrick Queen is solid.

That makes the job easier for folks like Michael Pierce, Jadeveon Clowney, Justin Madubuike, Odafe Oweh, and Kyle Van Noy to get after the passer.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The truth is the Ravens have faced only one good offense all season, the Lions. While they trampled them on the scoreboard, they did give up a season-high 337 yards. They also lost a game at home to Gardner Minshew and the Colts. That happened, in part, because they surrendered a season-high 139 yards on the ground. The lowly Arizona Cardinals stuck with them, in part, because they rushed for 129 yards. Same with the crappy Tennessee Titans (129 yards rushing).

Seattle has been reluctant to commit to the run this year. It is odd to say that about a Pete Carroll team, but it’s true. Zach Charbonnet criminally had fewer than 30 carries on the season. He is averaging nearly 6 yards per tote. Kenneth Walker has been good. A bunch of offensive linemen and tight ends and receivers are good run blockers, bordering on elite. Your quarterback is forcing too many throws. Run. The. Ball.

Ravens Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Ravens key advantages on offense

Jackson is a cheat code on offense. He’s been a mostly excellent passer this year, and is one of the most electric runners in the game. His new toy in Flowers is a dynamic playmaker in space. Mark Andrews is an always productive tight end. They get just enough quality from their running backs in Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon to be threatening there as well.

They also sport arguably the best offensive line the Seahawks have faced.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

As frustrated as Seahawks fans have been with Smith putting the ball in harm’s way, Jackson has nearly as many turnover-worthy throws on the year, and has fumbled a whopping eight times. Seattle will be the best secondary he has faced. There could be some game-changing turnovers.

Boye Mafe has established himself as enough of a pass-rushing threat to start warranting extra attention from opponents. This will be a tough matchup for him. Williams likely will be deployed inside, but may get some snaps on the edge. Wherever they use him, he will push the pocket and create more opportunities for players like Mafe or Derick Hall.

The Seahawks overall team speed and tackling has a chance to cut some of Jackson’s normal heroics down. This crew will have to be excellent to give Seattle a shot in this one, and the fun part is that is a real possibility.

Special Teams

Michael Dickson is quietly having an excellent season. Seattle should have an advantage in the field position game if punts happen. Do not let this come down to a Justin Tucker kick.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!

Thanks to Sarah and Chris Rood for sponsoring this series!