It is rare that a 6-3 team enters a game against a 3-6 team that has lost three straight with basically even odds to win. Such is the reality when the Seahawks face the Rams. The narrative among Seahawks fans is that Sean McVay owns Pete Carroll. The reality is that Jeff Fisher did better considering the talent disparity. McVay has almost always had a major talent advantage, where Fisher was largely the opposite. Fisher tormented Carroll with special teams trick plays and an overwhelming pass rush. McVay has flummoxed Carroll with an offense that has rarely been slowed down and pass rush built around all-world defensive tackle, Aaron Donald.

Still, once Seattle had the talent advantage last year, it was Carroll’s Seahawks who won swept the series. The Seahawks clearly have the same advantage this season, but have no chance to sweep after dropping a humiliating season opener.

Matthew Stafford has played like a top five quarterback at times this season. He was brilliant in that first game against Seattle, converting time and again on 3rd down (converting 11 of 17) with precision passes.

The Seahawks were unable to apply any pressure, and the coverage was not great. Nobody knew just how good Puka Nacua was going to be. And then the Seahawks lost both right tackle Abe Lucas and left tackle Charles Cross for the entire second half, and managed just 12 yards (!) of offense over two quarters.

Both Nacua and Tuta Atwell (drafted immediately after Dee Eskridge) had more yards receiving (119) than the entire Seahawks passing offense (95). It was a disaster.

Seattle has since managed to right the ship while never having a single full game with their starting offensive line. There is an outside chance we will see some symmetry of that line returning if Lucas can find his way back while practicing this week.

Seattle will also have a number of players who either did not play in week one or had very different roles. Devon Witherspoon, Leonard Williams, Jamal Adams, and Jason Peters were absent. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was very much nursing a wrist injury. Boye Mafe was being rotated off the field on passing downs at that point. Zach Charbonnet was used even less than he is now.

Los Angeles did not have Cooper Kupp. They lost starting running back Kyren Williams to injury and traded away Cam Akers, leaning on Darrell Henderson now. Possibly most important is that Stafford is recovering from a UCL sprain in his thumb on his throwing hand. He is expected back, but it is hard to predict how it will effect him.

Ignore any talk that signing QB Brett Rypien to the Seahawks practice squad will give them any new insights. That is fan fiction. Seattle had generally known how McVay would attack his defense for years, and had plenty of intel from Bobby Wagner quizzing the Rams coach last year when he was on the team. It did not matter when they faced each other.

Seattle comes in with a shifting offensive scheme that is featuring more screens and short passes. Geno Smith had dazzling numbers while experiencing the lowest amount of pressure he has seen all season against the Commanders. That is not a coincidence.

Smith was under pressure on 45% of his dropbacks against the Rams, and likely a far higher rate in the second half after losing his tackles. That all happened while Donald was largely held in check.

The Seahawks offense is the key to this game, and the key to the rest of the season. They have clear advantages here and need to play at least a competent game. It has been seven weeks since the Seahawks scored 30+ points in a game. Doing so here would be a great redemption story that would create some confidence heading into the toughest stretch of their schedule.

Seattle will play the 49ers on a short week, so health will be a big deal as well exiting this game.

This is a game Seattle should win. I believe they will.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

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Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense

Rams key advantages on defense

Donald is the alpha, as usual. There is nobody else close to his level on this side of the ball for the Rams. Ernest Jones is a very good LB, but we need to see if he will be playing in this one.

Rookie Kobie Turner and Byron Young have played quite well for the Rams. This rookie class has been a home run.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

This is not a great defense. They are not awful, though, either. Most of their pressure comes from the interior, and that is a place where the Seahawks have done relatively well in protection. Evan Brown had his worst game last week, and needs to bounce back in this one.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be in position to have a much bigger impact than he did in week one. He is making 1-2 impact plays each week and appears to be gaining confidence. This would be a great week to have his first complete game, where he is a factor throughout.

D.K. Metcalf had struggled for weeks, and finally started to make his impact felt in the second half against the Commanders. Tyler Lockett appeared to step forward as well. There is not a single player on the Rams defense with a pass coverage grade over 68.0, and the player with that grade is a defensive end. If this offensive line can repeat what they did last week, there is a chance Smith and his receivers could have a big day.

Charbonnet is also a good matchup here, and should make his presence felt.

Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Rams key advantages on offense

Third downs and red zone has been a bugaboo for Seattle on both sides of the ball all year. The Rams are the custom-made weapon to test that weakness. The Rams are not terrific at passing or rushing, but they are among the league’s best in converting 3rd downs and red zone opportunities.

Stafford is an MVP-level QB when healthy and surrounded by weapons. He also is usually good for a turnover or two. Interceptions are one thing. Holding onto the ball with a thumb injury when pressured is another.

Nacua and Kupp are excellent receivers, and Atwell is a dynamic athlete. Tyler Higbee is still dangerous. The Seahawks secondary will have their hands full.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

This secondary has made it tough for opposing receivers in recent weeks. It will be fascinating to watch Witherspoon in this one as many teams have stopped testing him, but the Rams almost certainly will come his way.

Riq Woolen and Tre Brown have been playing well, and will get tested as well. This is a game where they may give up some plays, but take the ball away at least once.

The Rams center and left guard are a weakness. Williams and crew should be able to collapse the pocket. Mafe has a good chance to notch another sack in this one on stunts.

Special Teams

Seattle should have large advantage on special teams.

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