There was a time when the Seahawks were the most confident and physical roster in the NFL. Those were fun times. They are also a pretty distant memory. It is the 49ers who have managed to rediscover the intimidation and cockiness that comes with immense talent and unbridled physicality that they had back when these two teams clashed a decade ago.
Seattle has some quality players and ascending youngsters. The 49ers have almost nothing but quality players and litany of All-Pros. They may have 6+ guys who can be counted as top three at their positions in the league. Seattle might have one.
There is no clear advantage for Seattle in this game, only areas where they have a better chance to compete. The odds are better that the 49ers will win by 14+ than that the Seahawks will win. This is absolutely a mismatch.
That said, division games are odd. Seattle will bring everything they have in this one, and their defense may be strong enough to keep this game close. Geno Smith has suddenly become one of the more clutch QBs in the league, leading multiple drives over the last few weeks to either win the game or set the team up to win. Frankly, we better see any player for the Seahawks who can strap on a helmet to find their way on the field. Their quarterback will be playing through a lot of pain. I’m looking at you, Abe Lucas.
The only formula that has worked to beat the 49ers this year has been to win the turnover battle and slow down their run game. Finding a way to run the ball on offense has helped quite a bit as well. Protect the ball. Take it away. Run the ball. Stop the run. There is almost no other path to victory. Let’s all lose our voices hoping it can happen.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
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Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
49ers key advantages on defense
There is game-changing talent at every level. Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead is just the defensive line. Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Charvarius Ward are good-to-great as well. Tashaun Gipson is a quality safety. They will be missing Talanoa Hufanga, who is their All-Pro safety, but rookie Ji’Ayir Brown had 3 pass breakups and an interception in his quarter of play subbing for Hufanga.
They are fast. They hit. They are relentless.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
San Francisco has struggled to defend the screen game at times, and has also been less than elite in run defense. Seattle needs to take advantage of one or both of those. The question is whether the team puts themselves in bigger turnover situations with screen passes that Warner could jump or pocket passing where Bosa and crew can pressure into forced throws or strip sacks.
Shane Waldron has been completely unwilling to rely on the run game. They used it last year in the playoffs to stay on schedule. It will be interesting to see how both teams adjust.
DK Metcalf had a big game last year against the 49ers, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba adds a new wrinkle. The corners outside of Ward are just okay. There will be passes available, but Waldron cannot fall into the trap of getting so pass happy they increase the odds of turnovers.
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers key advantages on offense
They can beat you on the ground, through the air, with quick game wide, with intermediate plays in the middle, and with lots of yards after catch.
Kyle Shanahan creates more open space for his quarterback to throw into and for his skill players to run through than any coordinator in the NFL. Brock Purdy has been mostly excellent operating the offense.
Brandon Aiyuk has been almost unguardable. George Kittle is a favorite target for Purdy. It all starts, though, with Christian McCaffrey. He is equally dangerous as a runner or a receiver. If there is one guy to put all your focus on taking away, McCaffrey is that guy.
And all that without mentioning Deebo Samuel or Trent Williams. I hate that they are this talented.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
There is a quiet soft spot on the 49ers offense. Their offensive line has been pretty bad, and they may be playing down 1-2 starters. As good as Williams is, he has not been as dominant as past seasons. Leonard Williams matched up at end with him a few times earlier this season with the Giants and got the better of the matchup multiple times.
No other player on the 49ers line is good. Spencer Burford is awful, and is likely to miss the game. He will probably be replaced by Jon Feliciano. Aaron Banks has been awful, and may be coming back from missing time with injury. If not, they may need to elevate someone off the practice squad.
This is a game where the Seahawks defensive line and edge players must be disruptive. Equally as important is the linebackers must be at their best defending the run, and being on alert for screens. Expect Shanahan to target Bobby Wagner in coverage.
Where Seattle has their biggest unique strength is in the secondary. Devon Witherspoon, Tre Brown, and Riq Woolen are all playing well. Julian Love will be asked to limit Kittle. Jamal Adams will be asked to hunt McCaffrey. He will need to have an elite tackling game.
The Seahawks have some guys who can challenge this offense. Turnovers are a must. Penalties are a must-not.
Special Teams
The 49ers rookie kicker has not proven himself in tight situations. Then again, Jason Myers just choked himself. Still, advantage Seattle.
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