Before we dive into offseason roster talk, I just want to get something off my chest…
It’s a bizarre time to be a Seahawks fan. This past week was a whirlwind of emotion. The last time Pete Carroll wasn’t the Head Coach of the Seattle Seahawks, I was a freshman in high school. I was a literal child. Fourteen years later, here we are. I’m about to enter my 30s, and life looks completely different.
Pete being gone doesn’t feel real.
Even as someone who has hoped for change over the past several years, seeing the franchise move on is still shocking. Honestly, I didn’t think they were going to do it. I thought this franchise had given Pete free rein to coach as long as he wanted to. The truth is I’m still in a bit of a state of shock.
It’s been a week full of mixed emotions, but the overwhelming emotion that I continue to feel is gratitude. Pete Carroll was the architect behind some of my life’s happiest, most joyous moments – moments that I spent with loved ones. And that’s the beauty of sports: it’s not just a game. These games create moments, which in turn create beautiful memories. Memories with loved ones I’ll cherish forever. And for that reason, I’m grateful.
Although I feel a deep sense of sadness and nostalgia – I also feel a budding sense of hope. It’s a genuine hope I haven’t felt in a very, very long time as a Seahawks fan. Any change as significant as this has inherent risk and immense potential downside. It might get worse. Maybe even much worse. But with the unknown comes a sliver of tremendous hope – that possibly, just maybe – a championship again could be in our future.
Regardless, as someone who has often deeply criticized his on-field decision-making (and I will happily admit, sometimes unfairly and incorrectly), I wanted to take just a brief moment to say that I appreciate Pete and everything he’s done for this franchise. What he’s done for this city and these fans, including myself, won’t be forgotten. Thank you for everything.
There are many different ways to be a fan of the NFL. I love contract analysis. And roster building. And the salary cap. And negotiations. All of it. I have no idea why I’m a weirdo like this, but I do. Building a championship football team isn’t just drafting a ton of excellent talent. That is critical, yes – but it’s also about maintaining a positive and healthy financial structure, ensuring the retainment of your most core and valuable contributors to maximize long-term on-field success.
With a new Head Coach comes a ton of potential change. One of those obvious areas is the personnel. The truth is some of our favorite players – players we’ve fallen in love with over the past couple of seasons – could be gone. Some *very* high-profile players will most likely not be Seahawks next year.
Per Over the Cap, and as it stands today under the top-51 rule, Seattle is $4.7M over the cap. That’s a problem. It’s not an unsolvable problem, but it’s a problem. To be compliant and field a competitive roster, some salary shedding will have to happen. Let’s walk through the cap implications of some of those potential decisions.
Geno Smith – QB1
Let’s start at the top of Seattle’s ’24 cap hits. Geno is entering the second year of a three-year extension he signed last offseason with the Seahawks. Unfortunately for Geno (and, well, the team), he hit zero out of the five potential performance escalators that would have increased his ’24 salary and subsequent cap hit to the team. Geno’s ’24 cap hit against the team will officially amount to $31.2M, or about ~12.6% of Seattle’s total salary cap.
Let me start by saying I’m no Geno groupie. He’s obviously having a late-career resurgence, and it’s been super inspiring to watch it unfold. He’s been inconsistent and bone-headed at times. Still, considering the majority of his performances over the past ~2 years and the financial landscape of quarterbacks, I assess this to be one of the better contract values in the NFL – if not the most team-friendly deal in the NFL.
On an APY basis, Geno is the 18th highest-paid QB in the NFL. Most reasonable fans would agree he’s been playing like a QB in the 8-12 range. However, I think it’s fair to wonder if his level of play will continue, particularly post-Pete. If you surround him with the right amount of talent, I think you could win a Super Bowl with him. He’s not the type of player to elevate and drag a franchise to a championship (like a Mahomes or Burrow type) – but you could also do much worse. If he was being paid like a top 5-7 QB, I think there might be a stronger argument for a financial adjustment here. Nonetheless, he’s not being paid like one.
It’s important to note that Geno has a $9.6M roster bonus due on March 20. His 2024 base salary of $12.7M will also vest on the 5th day of the waiver period (February 16). I don’t expect Seattle to cut Geno (that would be dumb, and his contract is a good value) — but if they did, it would need to happen before Feb 16. If they were to trade him — basically it would need to be done before March 20 (when his roster bonus is due).
Cutting Geno before March 20 would save the team only $1.1M in cap space and amount to $30.1M in dead money. For me, this is an easy decision to retain Geno through 2024 (but it also doesn’t mean they shouldn’t draft a QB *wink* *wink*).
Jamal Adams – Safety
Jamal Adams is entering the third year of a four-year extension he signed with the Seahawks several offseasons ago. Last offseason, the Seahawks converted $9.92M of Adams’ salary into a signing bonus to create $6.61M in immediate ’23 cap room. His cap number in 2024 and 2025 increased by $3.3M each season. It was a dumb decision at the time, and it looks even dumber now. It makes cutting him more difficult, but not impossible, this offseason.
If retained on his current contract, Jamal will cost the team ~$26.9M in 2024, or ~10.8% of the team’s salary cap. Cutting him pre-June 1st would save the team $6.08M in cap space and nearly $21M in dead money. If they want to release him with a Post-June 1st designation, it would save the team $16.5M in ’24 cap space but cost the Seahawks ~$10.4M in dead money for both the ’24 and ’25 seasons.
I’ve been very clear about my feelings about Jamal Adams. I am not a fan of his and am not interested in rooting for him. The trade was nothing short of catastrophic.
With that said, his injury history is unfortunate, and I often wonder what this team would have looked like over the past ~2 years with a healthy version of him. Based on what we saw from him in ’23, it’s fair to assume he will never be the same player again. Many players never return from a torn quadriceps injury. It’s impressive he’s simply able to run on a football field. Most people would never come back from that.
Nonetheless, even if he was fully healthy and back to his dynamic on-field self, allocating ~$27M to a safety is a luxury that the Seahawks cannot afford. I would rather distribute those financial resources elsewhere. I believe the Seahawks will cut him, and I would prefer to absorb the full dead cap hit in ’24 to limit the financial impact on the team in future seasons.
This one is an easy, obvious decision for me. Cut. Maybe he finds success starting over somewhere else, and I do wish that for him.
Tyler Lockett – Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett is entering the third year of a four-year extension he signed with the Seahawks and will cost $26.9M against the cap if retained on his current deal (about 10.8% of Seattle’s salary cap).
I love Tyler, I’m a massive fan of his, and I’m incredibly grateful for his consistency over the past decade of wearing a Seahawks uniform. I even own his jersey. But that’s also an extremely high number. He’s still talented and productive but shows slight signs of age. His greatest skill is his route-running abilities, so I believe he can continue to be an effective receiver in the NFL. I simply believe he can’t be retained at his current cost.
Cutting Lockett pre-June 1st would save the team ~$7.1M in cap space, resulting in ~$19.8M in dead money. Cutting him with a post-June 1st designation would save the team $17M in ’24 cap space and result in ~$9.9M in dead money in both ’24 and ’25.
I would approach him about a reworked contract if I were the team. I don’t want to see him leave, but I also don’t believe retaining him at his current cost is wise. I would be comfortable with a new deal in the $8-12M range, but not more. However, I think there’s a reasonable chance Tyler will make this choice for the team and choose to retire. If he does, I’m sure the team will (and I hope) let him keep his remaining signing bonus instead of attempting to claw it back.
Quandre Diggs – Safety
Quandre Diggs is in the final year of a three-year extension and will cost ~$21.2M against the cap if retained on his current deal. Like Jamal, the team restructured his contract last offseason to create immediate space in ’23 but made it more difficult (but not impossible) to cut in ’24.
The Seahawks can save $11M against the cap by cutting Diggs, which will cost about ~$10.2M in dead money.
My opinion fluctuates on Diggs a lot. He’s an inconsistent tackler but still very solid in coverage. If Seattle can beef up the trenches, our view – including mine – of Diggs might be more positive.
Quandre Diggs is still a talented safety. I just don’t think Seattle can retain him at his current cost to the team – and I’m not convinced safety is where this team should be allocating heavy resources moving forward. I would much rather them use this money up front, on either side of the ball.
Seattle could go in multiple directions – extension, trade, or cut. None of them would surprise me.
Dre’Mont Jones – Defensive End
Dre’Mont Jones signed a three-year, $51M contract with the Seahawks last offseason. $30 million was guaranteed at signing ($23M is fully guaranteed). He is entering year two of his contract, and I can’t imagine he met Seattle’s year one expectations.
This is one of Seattle’s most expensive free-agent acquisitions under Pete Carroll, and it looks like a complete dud after one year. The $20M of that $23M guarantee was a signing bonus, making it difficult to cut him this offseason. It’s also important to note that $7M of his ’24 $11M base salary vests into a full guarantee on February 10, just a few short weeks away. So, if Seattle were to want to get out from under this contract, it would have to happen imminently.
Cutting him with a pre-June 1st designation would only save ~$4.8M against the cap and result in ~$13.3M dead money. Releasing or trading with a post-June 1st designation would save ~$11.5M against the cap in ’24 with ~$6.6M in dead money for both the ’24 and ’25 seasons.
I don’t think releasing Dre’Mont is the right move at this time. But I also don’t love the contract. I think John Schneider will want to see his production under a new Head Coach and defensive staff. Releasing Dre’Mont in ’25 (the final year of his deal) is much easier if he doesn’t improve in the ’24 season.
Will Dissly – Tight End
Will Dissly is in the final year of a three-year extension with the Seahawks and will cost $10.1M against the cap if retained. Cutting him would save $7M against the cap and result in $3.1M in dead money.
I like Dissly, I want to retain him, and I think he’s valuable – but I also don’t think keeping him at that cap number is feasible for ’24. It will come down to a new offensive coaching staff’s personnel preferences and whether or not they believe Dissly’s role would justify the cap hit (which seems unlikely).
If Seattle does want to retain him but find financial relief in ’23, they could look at a short extension and drop his ’24 cap number significantly.
Bryan Mone – Defensive Tackle
Bryan Mone is in the final year of a two-year extension with the Seahawks. He has a $500K roster bonus due on June 1st. He will cost the team $6.4M against the cap if retained.
Cutting him would save the team $5.9M against the cap and only about $500K in dead money.
This is an easy decision here. Cut.
Final Thoughts
We’re about to enter an offseason full of change. With some of these pending financial decisions, I expect John Schneider to be thorough in his search and make a decisive decision reasonably quickly. It would surprise me if the Seahawks didn’t have a new Head Coach by this time next month.
A new head coach, coordinators, assistants, a new scheme, a fresh vision- all of it – it’s so exciting. It could go wrong, or it could go exceptionally well. Or they could stagnate. All options are on the table.
But one thing is sure: this Seahawks team will look very different next year.