One of the many lessons I have learned in writing this blog is that people value hope far more than hard truth. I am not immune. Even during down times, I get annoyed when I read or hear someone pick against the Seahawks. My goal has always been to reach an honest evaluation of my favorite team, but I have tried to be thoughtful about stepping on people’s hope when that evaluation tells me bad things. I see the familiar tug-of-war happening among the fan base as this season comes to a merciful close. What rarely happens in emotional debates is acknowledgement of both perspectives. I would like to try that in the final column of the season.
The case for optimism
Seattle finished with a winning record this season. It was their second straight winning season after trading away their franchise quarterback and setting out on a rebuild that expected them to win 4-5 games a year ago. Anyone who would have told you after the trade that the Seahawks would have had a winning season in both years and make the playoffs once, would have been ignored as delusional.
Not only that, but it is pretty easy to imagine the Seahawks winning 3-4 more games this season. They were a missed Jason Myers kick away from beating the Rams (and making the playoffs a second straight year). They were leading the Rams in the first game of the season before losing both offensive tackles in the second half. They were 1-5 in the red zone against the Bengals, in a game they lost by four points. They were the better team against the Cowboys, and were blatantly impacted by bad calls from the refs.
Take even two of those games, and you are talking about an 11-win season.
The schedule was incredibly challenging. Not just the opponents, but the way the NFL asked the team to travel and deal with short weeks while stacking their toughest opponents in a four week block. Every team Seattle lost to this season made the playoffs, except for the Bengals, who still finished with a winning record.
This schedule was considerably more difficult than what Seattle played last season, which makes the nine wins a higher quality outcome than a year prior.
Geno Smith answered the question about whether last season was a fluke. He struggled during the middle of the season, but finished with a flourish. He finished tied for 11th in QBR, and was ranked first over the final six weeks of the season. He will finish in a similar spot in PFF grade, and completion rate over expected (CPOE). He ranks higher in success rate and a bit lower in expected points added (EPA). His contract pays him about the 12th-highest in the league at the position, and that is almost exactly what his numbers say he is.
He also eradicated the narrative that he has not proven himself in the clutch. Yes, I remember the folks who try and make that case week-after-week last season. He not only led the NFL in game-winning drives (5), but he set an NFL single-season record. And he easily could have had six if Myers makes that field goal against the Rams. Not only that, but he gave his team the lead twice in the late stages of the fourth quarter in some games after the defense surrendered the lead, which is why he had a league-high seven fourth quarter drives that gave his team the lead.
He did all of this behind the most piecemeal offensive line you could imagine. Abe Lucas played about five games. Charles Cross missed three. Phil Haynes missed nine. Evan Brown and Damien Lewis each missed time. Even when the line was close to healthy, it was not very good.
Smith faced more pressure than almost any quarterback in the NFL. He was pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks, per PFF. Only three players faced higher pressure rates. No quarterback dealt with that level of pressure and made the playoffs. When he was kept clean in the pocket, he had the 7th-best passing grade in the NFL. His grade in those situations was higher than Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. Those guys had clean pockets on 5-10% more of their dropbacks. Give Smith that kind of protection, and all indications are that he could be a Top 10 player at the most important position.
He also had one of the least productive run games, which was another indication of the of the offensive line struggles this season. At 33, there is no rush to find another quarterback.
Devon Witherspoon and Jaxon Smith-Njigba hit as first round picks. Witherspoon made the Pro Bowl, and has the look of a game-changing talent who could be one of the best at the position. JSN was a slow starter and never had the breakout statistical game, but he still wound up as one of the most productive rookie receivers in Seahawks history.
Boye Mafe made a huge leap from his rookie season, and nearly had double digit sacks.
DK Metcalf emerged as a clutch receiver who played a big role in almost every game-winning drive, while also improving in contested catches. Only Hall of Fame receivers have compiled his numbers in their first five seasons.
Zach Charbonnet was a quality second back, who showed promise in all phases of the position.
Jarran Reed far exceeded his contract with his play, and Leonard Williams was a great addition. Uchenna Nwosu was hurt early and was a key cog in the defense that will be back to full strength next year.
Mike Morris was a promising rookie who missed the season and could give the team a boost next year. Jerrick Reed also showed promise before ending the year on the IR. Julian Love made the Pro Bowl, and is on a team-friendly deal.
It is not hard to look at all these things, add some players in the offseason, face a far easier schedule in 2024, and expect at least double-digit wins next year. Just staying healthy and improving the offensive line could net you at least 2-3 more wins.
The case for concern
I went through a lot of this last week, and will try not to repeat myself. Yes, the team had a winning record. Yes, it is easy to picture a few more wins on top of that this season. It is just as easy to picture five more losses, maybe more. Each of the games where Smith led the game-winning drive could have easily gone the other way.
Seattle barely beat a terrible and wounded Titans squad. They should have lost multiple ways to the 4-13 Cardinals if Prater makes either of his field goals. They were fortunate to beat the Commanders, who finished with the second-worst record in the NFL. They barely beat the PJ Walker Browns at home. You could even make the case they were not clearly better than the Andy Dalton Carolina Panthers.
The win against the Eagles was hailed at the time, but looks pretty empty when you look at how that team finished the year. Seattle scored fewer points against that defense than any of the Eagles’ final seven opponents, and they only scored that many because of a miraculous final drive.
The Eagles are emblematic of how bad the NFC is this season. This is one of the worst seasons of NFL football overall in terms of quality of play. I would not be surprised if there were more games started by backup quarterbacks than any time in history. Only the 49ers stand out as a true titan in the NFC. Every other playoff team is, at best, above average. Winning nine games in a season like this is not something to hang your hat on.
Seattle finished the year allowing 160+ yards rushing to six of their final seven opponents, and seven straight of 135+ yards rushing. After entering the season knowing that improving run defense was their top priority, the Seahawks managed to finish with a lower ranking in rushing yards allowed and per carry.
There is very little evidence that this Seahawks team improved as the year went on. In fact, there is more evidence to the contrary. The heralded 2022 draft class saw only one player improve from their rookie year. The pivotal 2023 draft class appears to be thin after the first rounders.
Not a single member of the offensive line looks to be Pro Bowl caliber. If the Abe Lucas injury is chronic, and not correctable with surgery, the team has a massive hole at right tackle. Anthony Bradford had an acceptable rookie season, but was far from an ascending player. Charles Cross looks like an average, or maybe slightly above average, left tackle.
There is very little reason to believe that this team can go toe-to-toe with any truly tough team and win on either side of the line of scrimmage.
There is no clear foundation for this team. The offense is not great. The defense is awful. Their best players are at skill positions, and there is little evidence this regime has what it takes to create an advantage in the trenches.
The draft bounty from the Russell Wilson trade is spent. They are missing a second round pick in the upcoming draft due to the Leonard Williams trade, and he may not re-sign. The cap is a mess, and you almost certainly have to cut some veterans.
Bobby Wagner was one of your tougher players, and they may not choose to bring him back. Jordyn Brooks and Damien Lewis are free agents who will either require large multiyear deals that will almost certainly be overpriced for their impact or will be allowed to leave, creating new holes to fill.
Yes, Nwosu’s injury was a big loss, but good teams can weather the loss of a single player. Seattle has nothing opposite Mafe without Nwosu, and neither Mafe or Nwosu are blue chip pass rushers who can demand and beat double-teams.
Seattle is arguably in worse shape on the lines of scrimmage than they were coming into the season. We thought the offensive tackles were set for the next decade. Neither may be worthy of that trust. Dre’Mont Jones was your biggest free agent signing ever, and he did not even finish the year at defensive tackle or demonstrate he was worth 50% of that deal.
No opponent scouted the Seahawks this season and said, “Oh shit. How are we going to handle that guy?” This team intimidates nobody. This team outschemes nobody.
The most optimistic view of this squad is that they are treading water. If your goal is a championship, you have to have built your foundation from the past two draft classes and off seasons when you had draft capital and cap space. There is little evidence that has happened.
Said another way, a foundation has been built. But it is the foundation of a mediocre team that will never contend for title. You can play out the string, but for those who want greatness, that feels like wasted time. What’s worse, if you sign the wrong contracts, draft the wrong players, value the wrong positions, you could prolong the mediocrity for many years.
I do not know what will happen. I know what I want to happen. This team needs new leadership. It needs someone who will hire different coordinators, who will value different things in players and different positions. It needs to retain Geno Smith and draft a young QB. It needs to pick a side of the line (I’d lean towards OL) to make great, and commit to making it happen. It needs a new direction, because they are on a road to nowhere interesting.
Pete Carroll will forever go down as the man who brought Seattle its first ring. The best way he could contribute to the city seeing another parade would be to step down.