People who are not sports fans find it hard to relate to the unbridled emotion that emerges from fans regarding a game that has no higher meaning. A ball went in a basket. A foot crossed over a painted line. A bat missed a ball. Trying to explain the outsized reaction to such mundane moments requires something akin to language translation. It is hard, but not impossible. Getting those people to understand the highs and the lows of the NFL Draft is a bridge too far. The idea that people would willingly watch names being called, mostly by teams that you do not root for, for three days is like describing how an alien species lives. Even the football fans start to be subdivided into further pockets of fanaticism at this stage.
There are football fans who will just track the picks on their phone or read about them after the draft is done. There are fans who will watch the first round, but skip the next two days. There are folks who will watch all three days. Then, there are the wackos who obsess over hundreds of players prior to the draft and cover every single pick. But wait, that does not include the folks who study draft prospects year around, or folks who specialize in a specific position group of draft prospects like offensive line. It is objectively a fetish of some sort. We are not having a rendezvous in a hotel room wearing a furry costume, but society likely would judge us similarly if they really knew how we were spending our time.
I am toward one extreme of that spectrum, having spent most of the last few months diving into prospects, interviewing experts, debating with trusted friends and fans about who and how the Seahawks should draft. I had formed pretty strong opinions about players and strategies.
As with anything, the more you put into it the more invested you are in the outcome. It is not only validating when your team picks a player you have studied and advocated for, but it is a thrill to know you will be able to cheer for that player for the foreseeable future. The opposite is also true.
Seeing players you love get passed by or selected by another team can be hard. Seeing the team select a player who was not among the hundreds you studied or maybe one you did but did not think highly of, can be deflating.
Emotion clouds judgment, which is why I like to take a beat before sharing my initial thoughts on any draft in written form. You can see and hear my emotionally-tinged immediate reaction to every Seahawks pick on YouTube.
Draft grading is more complex than you think
Everyone will tell you that it is silly to grade a draft the day after it happens. You need three years to evaluate a draft class. That is true, but even that is overly simplistic. The draft is a cascading and compounding series of decisions that impacts not only your team, but every other team.
When the Cardinals and Chargers both declined to trade down in the first round, that had cascading implications. When the Chargers picked Joe Alt, that meant they did not take one of the premium wide receivers, and forced the Titans to take the second-best lineman on their board, JC Latham. When the Falcons chose Michael Penix Jr., it meant they did not take Byron Murphy. That series of events left Rome Odunze for the Bears, who are rumored to have been set to take Murphy if Odunze had not fallen to them.
John Schneider and the Seahawks had absolutely no control over what happened in the first 15 picks before they had their first chance to call out a name in the draft. The choices of those other franchises do not make him a better or worse GM. They are the wind. He is the leaf. You cannot celebrate or fault the leaf for where it lands.
This was an example of the draft falling in an advantageous way for the Seahawks. Murphy is a physical force who can help reshape the image of what has been a soft team with a weak spine. Murphy can be the titanium spinal augmentation this roster needs, especially when paired with Leonard Williams.
Before going deeper on the players and their implications to this roster, the point of that micro-recap of the first few picks of the draft is that the same sequence repeats throughout the entire seven rounds. Over the course of 70 picks, there could easily be a dozen or two dozen decisions that are unexpected and either nab guys off the Seahawks board that they loved, or push guys down the board they never thought would be available.
We have judged Schneider in the past for putting too much weight on need and reaching for players. That approach can lead to passing on a more talented player, which is where real regret and error creeps in.
The downside of truly honoring your board and taking the best player available is that you may end up with an overflow at a position, more good players than you have roster spots to keep. This can lead to having to cut good players down the line at a position you already were strong, while still having holes at other areas of need.
The debate here would be: are you better off taking a chance that a lower-rated player works out at a position of need while passing on a better-rated player at a position of strength, or adding a new quality player at a position of strength who incrementally improves a position you already see as a strength while potentially losing a quality player for little-or-no return (one guy in the group means another guy is out)?
This debate comes to mind because this draft was one of the strongest demonstrations of Schneider taking best player available, but also had an example of reaching for need.
The wind brought butterflies and hornets
The draft largely fell in a positive way for the Seahawks in the first round.
Byron Murphy II
Murphy was my top choice for Seattle in this draft, and had been that way for months. He is physical force with rare quick twitch movement for a 300 pound man. He has a background on the offensive side of the ball and at linebacker. Those coordination and movement skills have stayed with him as he added weight. Having played those other positions make Murphy a player who thinks and expects to move laterally and quickly. The fact that he is also strong enough to play nose tackle is an incredibly rare combination.
People will compare his physical build to Aaron Donald. Then they will run away from it because nobody is Aaron Donald. Murphy is built like Donald. He is a special athlete that you do not see on the defensive line. No, I do not think he is Donald as a player, but the body type is a valid comparison.
The player who I think Murphy can become is Geno Atkins. The former Bengals wrecking ball in the middle of their line, and likely future Hall of Fame inductee, gave teams nightmares with his quickness and strength while being right around 300 pounds.
Lots of folks are comparing Murphy to Grady Jarrett, who is also great, but I think they are different athletes.
His ability to play nose tackle speaks to his unusual strength for his size, and explains his relative modest production (only 5.0 sacks this year). He is an ideal 3-tech defensive tackle who the team can let loose on opposing guards and may see significantly higher production in the NFL. He and Williams have versatility to allow the Seahawks to play different fronts against different opponents based on matchups.
Both players are strong against the run and impacting the pass. Murphy brings a high IQ and work ethic along with his outsized athletic profile. He already had an associates degree when he arrived at University of Texas and graduated college in three years. This is a theme throughout this draft class that bears watching as this new regime takes hold.
Murphy is only the fifth defensive tackle in franchise history be drafted in the top 20, and the first since Sam Adams was drafted 8th overall in 1994. He has a real chance to be the type of blue chip player teams need to build championship rosters around.
Day two was more complex.
Seattle appeared intent on addressing the interior offensive line. A player they were rumored to like a lot, Cooper Beebe, had fallen out of the second round and was getting closer to their pick. Meanwhile, there was a run on linebackers.
Junior Colson went to the Chargers with the 5th pick of the 3rd round (69th overall). Trevin Wallace went to the Schneider’s pal Dan Morgan and the Panthers three picks later. Both players had meetings with the Seahawks and were known to interest the team.
It seems logical the Seahawks probably tried to trade up for Beebe, but found no takers. Schneider acknowledged they were trying to move up but obviously gave no clue for who. Maybe they wanted a LB, but given they picked Christian Haynes a few picks later, Beebe seems the better bet.
Judging Schneider for not being able to trade up and nab Beebe would seem harsh and pointless. One could point to the lack of a second round pick from the Leonard Williams trade, or to the Sam Howell trade that caused Seattle to move down from 78 in the 3rd round. Maybe they would have found a taker if they still had 78 to trade up from instead of 81.
I’ll touch on the trades later, but given what Schneider had to work with on draft day, I do not see fault in not getting Beebe. The draft just did not cooperate in that case.
Christian Haynes
But this was not all out defeat. Haynes was a player who many expected to be gone in the second round, and some thought of as the best guard in this draft. That he fell to Seattle at 81 was a very positive Plan B.
Haynes is older (24), and smart (he has a Masters degree). He’s a solid athlete with a mean streak that you love to see in linemen, especially guards who are asked to block downfield. He finishes his blocks in ways that will get under the skin of opponents in a way we may not have seen around here since Breno Giacomini.
He has exclusively played right guard in college, but both Schneider and Mike Macdonald made the point multiple times that he has positional flexibility into center (and possibly the left side). It seems likely the team will ask him to start in the position he is more comfortable and confident in playing, which would mean either a competition with Anthony Bradford at right guard or Bradford switching to the left side to compete with Laken Tomlinson. Bradford did see some snaps at left tackle for LSU.
The idea of Haynes competing with Olu Oluwatimi at center might be the path to this pick realizing it’s greatest potential. Haynes profile as a smart, physical, finisher is very intriguing at center. While Oluwatimi shows promise as a pass protector, he lacks strength in the run game. We can hope he adds strength, but the most likely ceiling for him is an average starting center. Haynes could be a blue chip center.
It seems less likely Haynes will be a blue chip guard, but his floor seems quite high, and I like his chances of being better than Damien Lewis, who just signed a big deal with Carolina. There was a pick later in Day 3 that further makes the move of Haynes to center appealing. More on that in a bit.
Haynes has a chance to be the best interior offensive lineman on the Seahawks as a rookie. This was a very solid third round pick, with upside to be a great one.
The badlands of Day 3
The end of Day 2 put stress on the Seahawks draft board. Linebacker was a clear need heading into this draft, but it was an awfully thin class of draftable linebackers. Seattle was known to have met with Junior Colson and Trevin Wallace. Both were taken on Day 2. Furthering the problem, Dallas took Marist Liufau on Day 2 as well, who was largely regarded as someone who would be taken 100 picks later. Green Bay took Ty’Ron Hopper, who Seattle was not linked to, but further emptied out the linebacker board. Finally, Pittsburgh took Payton Wilson, who has tremendous talent, but also is missing an ACL in a knee and may have been off the Seahawks board altogether.
Seattle was sitting pretty with the second pick of the fourth round to start Day 3, but with so many linebackers off the board, they likely did not have a player they deemed worthy of that pick and Denver came calling with a serious overpay for that pick.
It made a ton of sense for Seattle to move back and add another pick. At the same time, this was deviation from best player available drafting. Denver grabbed a receiver in Troy Franklin who was expected to go in the 30s at pick 102. Cedric Gray was a linebacker who many expected to go in round 3, some as high as round 2, who was picked at 106. Brandon Dorlus, a defensive end who was regarded as a 2nd round pick, went at 109. Dorlus and Franklin were not at positions of need, but could wind up being high quality starters. Gray may not have been deemed worthy of their pick at 102, or at least not worth the additional picks they got in return, but trading back cost the chance to add him to the roster.
People would feel different about this draft in any of those three names had been called by Seattle at 102. Instead, they traded back and added Tyrice Knight at 118.
Tyrice Knight
Knight was so surprised to have his name called that he was not even in a place where he had cell reception when John Schneider was trying to call him. By almost all evaluations, Knight is a reach in the fourth round. A reach in the fourth round is hardly a backbreaker like reaching in rounds 1-3, but picking a player far higher than consensus does not usually work out for teams.
Knight was the 192nd player on the consensus big board that Arif Hassan publishes, which has been a very good reference for past drafts. Taking what would appear to be a sixth round linebacker in the fourth round is hard to get excited about.
Macdonald sounded like he knew Knight was a project during the press conference. He talked about him needing to start out a weakside linebacker and that he had a number of things he would need to learn that he had not yet been asked to do. They will always put a positive spin on any draft choice, but the board did not fall to them when it came to linebacker.
The team made the decision to get the best guy they had left on their board to fill a need versus grabbing best player available. Now, we hope that Macdonald can be the linebacker whisperer he was in past stops. A realistic hope is that Knight is a special teams player this year and maybe surprises enough to get some reps later in the season. He may not see the field until next year, and there may be an uphill battle for him to ever be a starter.
AJ Barner
A few picks later, they selected one of my favorite tight ends for the Seahawks in this draft. AJ Barner is a nasty blocker who is far more adept as a receiver than people know given how little the Wolverines passed the ball.
Barner could be a better version of Will Dissly. This was a guy most expected to go in round 6 or 7, but the tight end board thinned out early. Tip Reiman, another of my favorite players in the draft, went way early to the Cardinals in the third round. He was largely seen as a 5th-6th round pick.
Seattle once again had their hand forced by the fall of the board. Cade Stover was picked two picks later by the Texans, and then Jared Wiley at pick 131, and that largely emptied out the tight end class before Seattle would have had another pick.
There were some safeties who were really appealing in Jaden Hicks and Malik Mustapha, but the team decided to prioritize Barner.
That choice was understandable. The Knight selection could really come back to haunt them. Mustapha winds up in San Francisco, and could be a guy who Seahawks fans envy for years. He plays with a ferocity that would have reminded some of Kam Chancellor. Hicks goes to a young and aggressive Chiefs secondary. Only time will tell if Seattle made the right decision.
Rounds 5-6 brought overflow
Seattle has the first pick of the fifth round, thanks to the trade back with the Broncos, and took a remarkably fast cornerback.
Nehemiah Pritchett
Cornerback was a sneaky need for Seattle heading into the draft even though they are setup well for 2024. Tre Brown and Michael Jackson are in the last years of their deal. Pritchett ran a 4.36 40-yard dash at the combine and said he broke 4.30 in other attempts. He’s fast. He’s got good size at 6’0″ and 190 lbs. He also was a pretty explosive return man, averaging 31.3 yards per kickoff return in 2021.
Pritchett was back to best player available drafting. This was not a pressing need, but an emerging one as you plan out your roster. He was 141 on the consensus big board and Seattle took him at 136. A number of evaluators had him as high as the 3rd round.
He’s purely an outside corner, and creates a bit of a glut at that spot with Jackson, Devon Witherspoon, Brown, and Tariq Woolen. You would generally only keep four on your roster. Cutting a 5th round pick is far from abnormal, but if you want Pritchett to be great and stick, the Seahawks will need to possibly let one of these other guys go, and none of them are players you want to leave without compensation.
Jackson is on a RFA tender that puts him at $3M on the cap and the team will likely cut him and try to sign him at the vet minimum. Jackson may choose to go elsewhere. Jackson may also be asked to take some snaps at safety, a position the Seahawks did not draft and a place where he may excel.
Some say they could trade Woolen. I thought that could happen before or during this draft, but doing so after the draft makes very little sense. I doubt they want to wait a whole year for a draft choice in return for a player who can help them this season, and player-for-player swaps are highly unusual. Woolen probably sticks around at least until the trade deadline.
Sataoa Laumea
Seattle had three picks in the 6th round, including the third pick (179 overall). The choice they made here could be the key to this draft. Sataoa Laumea was an offensive tackle at Utah, but will be converted to guard in the NFL. He was 157 on the consensus big board, with some folks taking him as high as the 3rd round.
He plays with high effort and a ton of grit and nastiness. There are some bad habits he will need to break as a pass protector, but Scott Huff is an excellent line coach who we can hope will help get the best out of him.
Laumea has a real shot to develop into a starting caliber guard. If that happens, it allows Haynes to possibly slide to center and then hope that Anthony Bradford builds on his rookie season. All of a sudden, you could be looking at a young offensive line, growing together from tackle to tackle, each with some upside.
I’m enamored with the idea of Haynes at center as his body type and smarts could become one of the best in the league. Laumea and Bradford could be the type of physical road grading guards that cement the line without really needing to be Pro Bowl caliber players.
If the fallback is Oluwatimi at center and Haynes at guard with Laumea and Bradford battling at the other spot, that is not a bad outcome either.
Laumea is a project, though. He should not be expected to come in and contribute this season.
D.J. James
James was another best player available pick. The Seahawks were faced with the decision of prioritizing need at spots they had not addressed like safety or taking a guy who they did not expect to be on the board even though they really did not have a need or spot for him.
James was 113 on the consensus big board. Lots of folks had him in the 2nd or 3rd round. Seattle nabbed him at 192.
He is the teammate of Pritchett, but a much different player who profiles more as a slot corner.
The value here is undeniable. The roster questions it creates are also undeniable.
Witherspoon is an ideal nickel corner who excelled in that role last year. You also have Artie Burns and Coby Bryant. Burns almost certainly loses out here if James lives up to his billing. He probably is a special teams guy as a rookie, but to even make that, Seattle will need to figure out numbers at cornerback overall.
This is a situation where it would have been ideal if another position had fallen to Seattle, but they did not reach, and may wind up with upside as a result.
The challenge with the two corner selections is that it is hard to make the case they will make the team substantially better next season. The best case scenario is they incrementally improve the depth this year, and then sustain the level of play Seattle already gets from that room in following years. Obviously, you want a strong corner room at all times, but the Seahawks need to improve the talent substantially on this team and corner was not a weakness.
I don’t critique Schneider for the choices, but must acknowledge the draft did not fall in the most advantageous way. Schneider said as much in his press conference.
Michael Jerrell
For their final pick, Seattle took a shot at a guy who played at a small college (Findlay) as an offensive tackle and has some intriguing athletic traits. He’s a 93rd percentile athlete at tackle who is incredibly smart and also physical.
His quote about Seattle was practically poetry and has me cheering for him already.
He probably does not make the team, but can hope to make enough of an impression to earn a practice squad spot.
Final thoughts
There will be people who love or hate this draft class and who admonish or celebrate Schneider and crew. It is just far too complex for me to leave feeling any one person did a good or bad job. The luck of the fall helped early and hurt late.
Seattle seemed to make wise choices along the way, with one big exception in the fourth round. Even there, it is hard to say how things would turn out if they exited this draft without a linebacker or one worse than Knight.
The Sam Howell trade looks brilliant in retrospect. Howell is younger than many of the prospects in this draft, including a year younger than Bo Nix who was selected 12th overall. Schneider read the draft correctly that all the QBs really worth taking would be gone before they could really take one. When I say that, I’m talking about the third round. I do not believe they were ever really considering investing the 16th pick in a QB or trading up. The report that they were trying to trade up for Penix Jr. has been strongly debunked by credible sources.
You may be someone who loved Spencer Rattler, but that’s a preference. Howell is younger than Rattler, has more than a season of NFL starts, and cost roughly the same draft compensation Rattler did. There is no truly objective way to criticize the preference of Howell over Rattler.
The Williams trade is more challenging. His age and new contract make that a tougher evaluation. He and Murphy now form what could be the biggest strength on the team, which could raise the overall level of play a lot. He also is a terrific mentor for Murphy. Would the team be better off over the next 2-4 years if they had used that second round pick on a player like Tyler Nubin or Michael Hall Jr (which would allow the 1st to be spent on OL), or Javon Bullard or Mike Sainristil? I think they probably would be.
Schneider’s expensive trades for veterans have rarely been worthwhile. His less expensive trades for veterans (e.g., a 5th for Quandre Diggs, a 4th and 5th for Marshawn Lynch, etc.) have worked out quite a bit. What we cannot know is how much Pete Carroll was adding pressure to make those win-now moves. We can hope he stops making those big trades and becomes more patient to build through the draft.
Seattle needs incredibly strong draft classes to break out of this mediocrity they are mired in. I do not think this draft will meet that bar, but the best path to doing so would be if Laumea can become a solid starter and Haynes shifts to center. Even if this is not the franchise-changing draft, it is a strong one that added some quality players and may have added the best defensive lineman we have seen in a long time.