Hearts dropped across the nation when Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa dove forward into helmet-to-helmet contact in a game against the Bills last Thursday night. Tagovailoa has a history of serious concussions, and this was clearly going to be another. It was a classic example of adding injury to insult as the Dolphins were well on their way to an ugly home loss to their division rival after barely escaping week one with a win over the Jaguars.
The effervescent offense that led the NFL in yards and finished second in scoring a season ago, has managed to score only 15 points per game so far this year. A team that has been the perfect reflection of the city they call home, with flashy speed and flavorful play calling, has felt more like a spring break town that only manages to entertain for brief stints.
A struggling team that loses its quarterback can often be easy prey. Add in a cross-country road trip and the odds grow even longer. The Seahawks would be wise not to overlook this coaching staff and this Dolphins roster.
In some ways, it may be advantageous to play away from the lofty expectations of the home fans. Miami will look at this as a chance to signal to themselves, and every team in the league, that their season is not lost. They host the Titans next week and then travel to New England the week after before their bye. A 4-1 start has to feel within reach if they can just find a way to steal this game on the road.
Mike Macdaniel is a brilliant offensive coach who has almost single-handedly made this franchise relevant and cool. He will look at the job his friend Matt LaFleur did this weekend in Green Bay after losing their quarterback and ask, “Why not us?”
He still has the fastest player in football in Tyreek Hill, and more speed in Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. This is an offense that loves to run the football like the Seahawks last opponent in New England, but they do it completely differently than the Patriots. Where New England pounds the ball down the middle of the field, the Dolphins burn the edges in every possible way. Seven players (not including quarterbacks) have already had a rushing attempt this season.
They use misdirection and the threat of breakaway speed to stress defenses horizontally. Seattle enters the game tied for 3rd-most missed tackles in the league. Missing tackles on the edge in this matchup is asking for house calls. Players will dial it in for this game, but that does not ensure they will be able to reliably bring down some of the best weapons in football.
Passing will be a far bigger problem for Miami. Skylar Thompson will get the start and face one of the more complex, talented, and productive secondaries in the NFL in a raucous environment. The former 7th-round pick has only managed to throw for more than 200 yards in one game during his career, and has only 2 touchdown passes.
Seattle has allowed the fewest explosive passes in football, and has one of the highest pressure rates. Miami has the 30th-ranked pass blocking offensive line in the NFL, per ProFootballFocus, and they may be missing their best lineman if Terron Armstead is unable to play.
The health of Boye Mafe will be an important factor, as will the potential return of Uchenna Nwosu. More likely, Nwosu joins the team in Detroit the following week, but there is an outside chance he tries to practice this week. Jerome Baker is another injury to watch after he was unable to finish the game this week.
Seattle was unable to hold up against the power run game of the Patriots. Pete Carroll and crew had a hard time stopping the bleeding once the defense sprung leaks against the run in recent years. This will Mike Macdonald’s first chance to demonstrate a better ability to make adjustments in that aspect of the team.
Offensively, the Seahawks would love to have Kenneth Walker III back in the fold. They barely walked, let alone ran the ball in week two. Macdonald called out the offensive line needing to get some push. The Dolphins have some players who excel in run defense. Linebackers David Long Jr., former Seahawk Jordyn Brooks, and safety Jevon Holland are all excellent in run support.
Thousand-year-old defensive tackle Calais Campbell (he’s really 38) is arguably the most talented interior defensive linemen, which could give Seattle a much-needed advantage on the interior.
This is a game that will feature a lot of notable matchups. Connor Williams plays his former team who did not sign him after his injury. Brooks comes back to the team who drafted him but did not prioritize him in free agency. Baker can say the same. It is doubtful Dee Eskridge will be activated off the Dolphins practice squad, but he will be with the team.
Maybe the most entertaining with be Jalen Ramsey versus D.K. Metcalf. The two have a long history of acrimony. Each have had victories and defeats at the hands of the other. Ramsey has struggled mightily this year. Metcalf is coming off a huge performance, despite some costly drops. This will be his first real test in terms of keeping his head if Ramsey baits him.
The pressure will be on the Seahawks in this game given nobody will expect the Dolphins to be competitive with Thompson at quarterback. The line has already moved to -5.5 in favor of the Seahawks. Seattle will need to match the energy of the Dolphins who will be itching to make a statement, while also cleaning up the problems in their run defense and tackling.
The Seahawks have not yet shown the ability to separate from their opponent. This game is unlikely to be different. Look for some crucial mistakes by Thompson to provide the points needed for the Seahawks to win their third straight game.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HAWKS. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while.
DVOA would tell you this game is a mismatch even if the Dolphins had their starter at QB. Miami being dead last in defending WR1, along with a 54.7 PFF grade for Ramsey, tells you how much their top corner has struggled. Seattle allowed a ton of catches and yards to tight end Hunter Henry last week, and speedy tight end Jonnu Smith could give them more trouble. It is interesting to see how well the Seahawks have done in defending passes to running backs so far. That will be tested in this game and it would be big if they can continue to contain those plays.
Seahawks Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Dolphins key advantages on defense
Ramsey has had a rough start to the season. He has given up a perfect passer rating of 158.3 when targeted, including a touchdown. He was questionable for the first week after battling a hamstring injury, and gave up some big plays against the Bills in week two. His PFF grade is a lowly 54.7, but you have to assume he will be up for playing rival receiver Metcalf in this one. The two have had some epic battles through the years.
The Dolphins defense has not been as bad as one might think. They have yet to surrender even 270 yards of offense in a game, and were put in numerous short-field situations after the three interceptions thrown last week.
Edge rusher Bradley Chubb is on PUP and will not be available in this one. Jaelan Phillips is their other stud edge rusher who made it back after an achilles injury from last season, but he has had a slow start this season.
Draft pick Chop Robinson has elite athleticism and has flashed early with the extra reps given Chubb’s absence. His speed could give Stone Forsythe problems, assuming George Fant is not yet back.
Brooks is an excellent coverage linebacker and Long Jr. is a fantastic run defender. Kendall Fuller is an excellent coverage corner opposite Ramsey.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Despite the Dolphins respectable numbers in defending the run and some of their speedy personnel, the Seahawks have a chance to move the players on the interior. Zach Sieler and Benito Jones are not dynamic inside, and Campbell has finally started to show signs of wearing down.
Miami has one of the least productive pass rushes in the NFL through two weeks. They rank 28th in pressure rate, below a Patriots squad that had trouble getting to the quarterback against Seattle. Geno Smith is getting rid of the ball in 2.49 seconds, 3rd fastest in the NFL, and down significantly from the 2.75 seconds he averaged last season. That will make it hard for any team to reach him.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off his best game as a pro, and that was against a quality nickel corner in Marcus Jones. This week, he gets the lowest-graded player on the Dolphins defense in Kader Kohou, who sports just a 30.6 coverage grade. He has been a slightly above average nickel defender during his time in the league, but this should be a sizable advantage for Seattle.
The Miami safety room was expected to be a strength with Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland. Neither player has done well in coverage so far, which may indicate some growing pains as they acclimate to playing together or the stress being applied to all coverage players with the unproductive pass rush.
One key difference between the Patriots and the Dolphins is the amount of man coverage. New England plays man more than most teams in the NFL and is predominantly a two-deep safety team (they lead the NFL with 34% of snaps in Cover 2). Miami leads the NFL in zone coverage snaps, with 38% coming in Cover 3.
That means Smith will need to be willing to utilize the underneath flat routes to running backs and receivers, as well as attack the seams with tight ends. This could be a good game for a guy like Laviska Shenault Jr. and Brady Russell to make their presence felt. Look for either Walker or Charbonnet to get a lot of targets out of the backfield.
Dolphins Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Dolphins key advantages on offense
This offense has underperformed, with or without their starting QB. They have not scored more than 20 points in a game despite being 8th in yards. The yards per play rank of 17 is closer to the reality of who they have been.
It was surprising to see their rushing ranks as they seemed to have some dynamic plays against the Bills, but none for huge gains. They attack the edges with unparalleled speed. Achane and Hill can take any carry to the house.
This will be a game where Seahawks linebackers, corners and safeties will have to be their best in tackling and strike the tough balance of being quick to the ball without being fooled by misdirection. Miami is doing everything they can to create false steps.
Raheem Mostert may not be ready to come back after a chest injury, but if he is, that would be a boost for their backfield. It sounds like Mostert’s replacement, Jeff Wilson, may be injured as well. Achane would simply get more carries if that was the case.
Hill is the most electric player in the sport. His matchup with Riq Woolen will be fascinating. Waddle presents challenges as well. As great as Devon Witherspoon is, he will be tested on his deep speed in this one. You could not have a bigger difference in opponent talent at the receiver position than what Seattle faced last week in New England versus what they will see this week versus Miami.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Seattle gets a break in facing a backup quarterback. The health of left tackle armstead looms large. This defense boasts the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the NFL, and may be getting Nwosu back. Mafe’s practice status is something to watch as well after he had what Macdonald termed a “knee contusion” in the Patriots game.
Armstead is the only good pass blocker on the line. Although, his replacement Kendall Lamm, graded out well against the Bills. This will be the first road game of the season for this Dolphins team and the line is in worse shape than the Seahawks crew. They already have 6 false start penalties and 4 holding calls. A new quarterback, a lack of continuity along the line, and the loudest stadium in the sport could make for some mishaps.
Seattle disguises as well as anyone in the NFL, both in coverage and in pressure. McDaniel knows Macdonald well (and vice versa). Each coach has taken turns making the other look bad. McDaniel will need to do his best work to prepare his backup quarterback and injured offense to be ready for this one.
Special Teams
Jason Myers has had a strong start to the season after an awful preseason. Jason Sanders has been one of the best in the game for years. Dee Williams started to flash his potential with a key 23-yard punt return last week.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!