There are few jobs more glamorous than being an NFL player. It is a job few can even apply for, let alone land, and occupy long enough to tell anyone. The glamour, though, is not evenly distributed across all the players or positions in the league. Somewhere toward the bottom of the glamour spectrum is where you will find the big boys on the offensive line. Not only does the job lack flash, but the men who occupy it rarely seek the spotlight. This understated existence may be contributing to a disturbing trend playing out in the shadows of the NFL. Those lovable lugs tasked with clearing paths for your favorite running back or protecting your young quarterback are struggling to do either job well. While receivers, cornerbacks, and defensive linemen are faster, stronger, and better than at any time in NFL history, offensive linemen may be one of the few position groups in decay.
There was a time when offensive linemen took center stage in the NFL. The “Hogs” of the Washington Commanders franchise in the 1980s and 1990s were the foundation on which they built a 3-time Super Bowl winner. Russ Grimm, Jeff Bostic, Joe Jacoby, and Mark May played together for nearly a decade. Grimm would ultimately make the Hall of Fame. They were outliers in notoriety, but others matched or exceeded their level of play and continuity at the time.
Art Shell, Gene Upshaw, and Jim Otto highlighted a star-studded Oakland Raiders line in the 1970s. San Francisco rode the backs of Jesse Sapolu, Guy McIntyre, Randy Cross, Bubba Paris, Keith Fahnhorst and more to a series of championships in the 1980s and into the 1990s. Dallas saw Nate Newton, Mark Stepnoski, Kevin Gogan, Erik Williams, and Larry Allen make multiple Super Bowl titles possible in the 1990s. As recently as 2005, the Seattle Seahawks made their first Super Bowl due primarily to having two Hall of Fame linemen in Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson form the left side of their line.
There have been other great offensive lines, and great offensive linemen along the way, but fewer champions can point to that position group as the reason why they got there. A series of changes to how the game is played and practiced have made it harder to find quality offensive linemen, let alone string enough together to form a great line.
The disappearing upper middle class
Part of what made it possible to assemble a quality offensive line was the bountiful supply that could be found across the league. Measuring the play of offensive linemen is challenging due to lack of easily attributable individual statistics, but there are some ways to get a hint of the trend.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) is often controversial in their grading system. Sam Monson, formerly of PFF, believes their offensive line grading is among their best.
“[The] offensive line stuff is extremely strong because [PFF] is able to weed out all the things that can influence it,” Monson said. “Those pass rush reps are one of the most repeatable, static, part of the game that is a little like baseball where the analytics work so well because it’s a single repeatable thing that happens over and over and over again.”
PFF grades have not been around forever. They do go back roughly 20 years, which is far enough to provide some insight into historical trends. One of the benefits of PFF data and grades is they are given to every single player who plays the position. Grades are given on a scale of 0-110, and there are tiers that have some relative significance.
Some interesting trends appear when you look at the grades of offensive linemen over the last 20 years.
There is a clear thinning of the upper middle class of offensive linemen. The players graded from 70-89 are the ones who are playing above average (70+) or even Pro Bowl level (80+). That group made up almost half of the offensive linemen in the league less than 20 years ago. It has shrunk to 20% as of last season.
The group of “average” linemen has stayed relatively stable, making up roughly a third of the league. What has exploded is the number of below average to very poor players.
The most plentiful grouping of players in 2006 was 64 linemen who graded between 62-69, which is solidly above average. By 2014, the biggest group was 63 linemen graded between 58-64, starting to dip down to roughly average. Last year, the largest group was 66 players who graded between 55-61, mostly below average.
The cliff is also far more severe when moving to the right. Whereas in 2006 and 2014 there was a shelf of good linemen to the right, that dwindles rapidly in 2023. In fact, the more plentiful numbers go in the opposite direction with an increasing supply of well below average players.
PFF grades are only one data point, and they are imperfect. Former NFL offensive lineman and top ten pick, Ray Roberts has some healthy skepticism.
“With all these grading mechanisms comes whoever creates the grade or the data point can be subjective,” Roberts said. “Charles Cross may not be giving up a lot of pressures, but there’s a lot of times when he’s right in Geno [Smith’s] lap but he still ain’t touching the quarterback. Some people might see that as a pressure grade. For me, that’s a ‘got got’ grade.”
There are some other ways to assess if line play is in decline.
Pressure rates climb & QBs are getting hit far more
Roberts points out that the definition of a pressure can be subjective. There is some benefit in having the same criteria used to define a pressure over time, which PFF provides.
The average amount of pressures per drop-back has risen steadily over the same time period. The league that is relying more and more and pass plays are also seeing their lines surrender more pressure per pass.
Pressures are still somewhat subjective. Quarterback hits are more tangible.
Quarterbacks are being hit more, both in absolute terms (978 QB hits in 2023 vs 637 in 2006) and in relative terms.
It is worth noting that pressures, hits, and sacks are not purely attributable to offensive line play. Quarterbacks have a huge amount of influence based on how they adjust protections before a snap, how well they read coverages, how quickly they throw the pass, and how well they maneuver within the pocket versus scrambling outside of it. Play callers also factor in, as do tight ends and running backs who are involved in pass protection.
One other possible measure of elite offensive line play is the Hall of Fame.
The Hall of Fame is, by definition, subjective. Voters get to decide who goes in each year. There will always be fewer players from the most recent generation inducted as it takes an average of 10 years after a player ends their career to get the call.
Still, there has been more than enough time for players who started their careers in this century to get inducted. Yet, just two have been deemed worthy. Hutchinson and Joe Thomas are the only players whose career started after the year 2000 who have been called to Canton.
There are guys like Trent Williams, Jason Peters, and Tyron Smith who seem certain to get the call at some point down the road. It does seem that there are fewer greats than there have been in previous eras, and even fewer young players who appear ready to ascend into that stratosphere of play.
Evidence points to eroding line play. Experts have a number of reasons explaining why it is happening.
Developing offensive linemen has never been tougher
Seahawks President of Football Operations & General Manager, John Schneider has talked about seeing a trend toward the best big man athletes moving toward the defensive side of the ball so they can rack up sacks and dollars. He also has highlighted some unique challenges for that position group.
“It’s a position where it’s a unit, it’s a group,” Schneider said. “You can see guys that are like Pro Bowl players, difference makers, and they may be the only real talented guy in the group. You have to have a specific skill set, a specific mentality, and it takes time. You have to have continuity, and it’s rare to have that contintuity.”
Roberts agrees with Schneider, and also sees a more systemic set of challenges.
“Going way back to when the NFLPA said, you know, less contact, less full padded practices,” Roberts said. “You can’t finish drills, and all of that is so vital for offensive linemen. To be able to get into a block, drive the block, and then finishing the block is so hard to learn that in a game.”
Roberts acknowledges the good intent around player health and safety while also being clear the offensive line has been uniquely impacted by rule changes at all levels of the sport.
“You think about going all the way back to high school offensive linemen,” Roberts said. “They’re not finishing drills in pads. You get to college, they’re not finishing drills. You get to the NFL, you’re still not. So you’re going to see a decline in those areas.”
Roberts continued, “I understand why the NFL went to less contact and padded practices, but man, the people who have suffered the most from that is offensive linemen.”
He also believes there are freakier athletes on the other side of the ball, which lines up with Schneider’s theory that more kids are choosing to rush the quarterback instead of protecting him. That leads to a compounding issue of better athletes on that side of the ball and less practice time to develop how to stop them.
Monson points to another factor.
“I think college style offenses have definitely made the transition harder,” Monson said. “Some college offenses barely ever have a linemen take a true NFL pass set. Projecting those guys into an NFL system can be tricky. There’s a real lack of a developmental pathway for project linemen to get better.”
Spread offenses in college have put a heavy emphasis on passing the football, which has adversely impacted the development of run blocking for college linemen. Roberts believes run blocking is a key part of how any lineman develops.
“A lot of times when they do run block [in college], they are doing it from a two-point stance,” Roberts said. “That’s typically not where you want to run block from because you’ve given up leverage already, especially with some of these shorter interior linemen who are barely six feet tall when you’re standing at six-foot-six.”
What it means and what to do
The impact to the game is far greater than one position group struggling. Having fewer competent offensive linemen means it is harder to develop quarterbacks.
Some teams, like the New England Patriots, are opting to have their top draft pick, Drake Maye, gain some experience as a backup while veteran Jacoby Brissett endures the second-highest pressure rate (44.8%) in the NFL. Other teams have thrown their top picks like Bryce Young and Caleb Williams behind suspect lines, possibly leaving them susceptible to developing bad habits that will be hard to correct. Some, like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold, have had a winding path with severe peaks and valleys.
Mayfield and Darnold have seen their careers revived, in part, due to playing behind good offensive lines. Smith has raised his play by reducing his reliance on offensive line play. He is 3rd in the NFL in time to throw so far this season (2.49 seconds), and has improved his pocket playmaking, a term coined by Robert Mays of The Athletic.
Tom Brady has been outspoken in his belief that all young quarterbacks should sit and learn first. Sam Howell, who calls Maye a best friend, was asked to start early and suffered through a league-high 65 sacks as a 23-year-old in 2023. He was traded to the Seahawks and now sits behind Smith.
“People come into the league at different stages,” Howell said. “Some guys come into the league ready. Some guys don’t. Coaches have to have a good sense of that. Another thing that matters is who’s around you. It’s easier for a young guy to play when he’s on a good football team. Live reps are the best, but you don’t want to ruin a player’s confidence, so you’ve got to be smart about it. You have to have a plan.”
Young was recently benched just a year after being the top overall pick. How much of that has to do with line play is up for debate. What cannot be debated is that a player like C.J. Stroud, taken in the same draft, landed in a much better situation with a better line and skill players around him. That can only help a young signal caller.
The deterioration of line play also impacts offensive coordinators. Their willingness to call deeper-developing pass plays is reduced when the line cannot protect. Mays talked about the challenges these spotty lines represent for play callers.
“It’s difficult to account for your guys just losing that consistently,” Mays said. “You don’t want to call plays like that where you’re thinking, ‘If my right guard gets beat right here one-on-one, this play is going to get blown up.'”
Coaches can try to scheme up help for their linemen with receivers and running backs chipping or tight ends staying in to block, but there are only so many holes that can be plugged.
“The problem is if you are in a situation where guys are taking turns where they’re the ones allowing pressure, there’s nothing you can really do about that as an offensive coordinator,” Mays said. “If it’s one guy, you can get four hands in there to help, but there is no answer if it is multiple guys, and that’s where offenses can start to feel disjointed.”
That is how you can have some of the best young offensive minds coaching around the game like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, and still have NFL scoring averages dipping three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1992.
What can be done if it is highly unlikely the sport will go back to more padded practices? Monson points to a few possibilities.
“The NFL badly needs a developmental pathway for OL and QBs,” Monson said. “They basically need to have some kind of minor league system for these guys to get reps. They need NFL Europe, but with less expense attached to it.”
Monson sees the United Football League (UFL) as an option if they can survive financially, and wonders if the season can be aligned in a way that would allow a true minor league system similar to baseball that would make it possible to call players up.
He also points to the rise of private coaching networks like OL Masterminds, founded by Duke Manyweather, that are “doing great things” for offensive linemen.
There might be a simpler path to this developmental process, which would be to expand rosters. The NFL did that when they relaxed rules on who could be on practice squads and increased the number of players who could be carried to 16.
Expanding that even further and adding coaches dedicated to practice squads who could hold joint practices during the season could go a long way toward allowing players to get the time and coaching they need to develop in the NFL. It would also help buffer the league against injury attrition that is sure to worsen when they move to 18-game schedules.
Owners won’t like the cost associated with that approach, but they may be facing more dramatic losses if they let this trend continue.
The game will change, possibly moving away from what made it so popular. Offenses will become less physical and more reliant on mobile and improvisational quarterbacks who create offense outside the structure of the play that was called. We are already seeing fewer and fewer classic pocket quarterbacks in the league. They may eventually become extinct if they do not master the art of the rapid processing and time to throw, which will become harder to do if their line leaves them shell-shocked.
This could also lead to a gold rush for veteran offensive linemen who have proven their worth in the league. Simple supply and demand would make this seem like a certainty, but there is also evidence of GMs overpaying for mediocre linemen because quality players are so hard to come by. Those types of mistakes could cripple teams.
The impact of continued deterioration of line play could force coaches to adapt offenses to be less and less reliant on effective blocking. We have already seen an increase in quick game and screen passes. That could affect the types of athletes teams look for in receivers. Players who more resemble running backs in their skill set, like Deebo Samuel, could become more common as coaches try to “run” further away from the offensive line. Defenses may also be able to get away with lighter and lighter athletes in the front seven because they have less fear of the offensive linemen blocking them, which could, ironically, lead to a run game renaissance.
Offensive linemen are not likely to get the attention of the average fan or be the subject of an ESPN feature story. They do, though, have a significant impact on the quality of play for the sport, and there is no doubt NFL front offices and coaching staffs are actively seeking ways to patch what has become a cracked and eroding foundation.