That the Seahawks lost to the 49ers on Thursday should not come as a surprise. They have not beat San Francisco in years. They are not as talented or as seasoned as San Francisco. Despite the inverse records heading into this one and the home field advantage, everybody seemed to understand that the Seahawks were underdogs. Yet, it somehow feels worse on the other side of a predictable outcome. Seattle had possession with the chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter of each of their last three games, including two against Super Bowl contenders. That sounds competitive and promising. It feels like a team going nowhere interesting.
Much of the melancholy comes from a few recurring nightmares.
Inability to stop the run
Football games generally feel hopeless when your team is unable to slow down an opponent rushing attack even if everything else is going well. It takes the life out of your defense. It keeps the ball away from your offense, which further exhausts the defense. It limits opportunities to rush the passer.
For all the flash of NFL passing games, football remains a sport that measures the toughness between two teams. Having another team push you around and run over you makes it feel like the other team is tougher.
That has largely been the case the past few years with the 49ers. It was not the case in this one. Seattle actually made some progress, but breakdowns at all three levels led to some massive busts. The linebackers, in particular, feel like they are not close to playing a complete football game.
It is unfortunate because there was hidden progress in this one. Seattle had more stuffs (1 yards or less) in this game and fewer explosive rushes against SF than they had against the previous two opponents, as a percentage of rush attempts.
The explosive rushes in this one, however, were massive in terms of yardage. Giving up 118 yards on two carries is a sure fire way to make your overall run defense look awful. You only give up yardage that big when multiple levels of the defense make mistakes.
Those were not “we are tougher than you” plays. They were, “you are not playing sound football” plays. Further review will show this was a better game defending the run than the past two, with fewer busts, and more wins. Nobody will care until the do it for 60 minutes and the result is a lower rushing total.
Geno poor play versus the 49ers
There have to be worse birthdays throughout history, but I would wager this was the worst of Geno Smith’s life. The walking Rorschach test that is Smith played his worst game of the season. He airmailed a throw on the opening drive that took away at least a field goal opportunity and maybe more. He was inaccurate on multiple throws throughout the night that he normally makes. He threw a dagger interception that appeared to at least be partially the fault of his receiver.
No matter the errors of others, Smith was not close to his best self and it happened again while playing their biggest rival in the division. The reasons why don’t really matter at this point.
The only way Smith can gain the respect he seeks is to beat great teams. No amount of beautiful throws or stats against middling or worse teams will change the perception of who he is. The weight of that appeared to be clear to him as he showed more frustration and emotion on the sideline than he has in a long time.
There are people, including in this fan base, who are rooting against Smith. I literally sit next to one at Lumen Field at the games. He opened eyes against Detroit. He turned backs with this performance.
Poor OL play
This is the longest of the recurring nightmares. Most of us can barely remember the last time the Seahawks had even an average offensive line. It is almost impossible to cleanly separate how much of Smith’s bad play or Ryan Grubb’s questionable play calling is attributable to what is atrocious line play.
The sack numbers will look better in this one, but Smith had pass rushers in his lap all day. The deep throw to DK Metcalf early in the game was under thrown because Smith had Nick Bosa running at him and he was unable to step into the throw. There were numerous similar situations.
Seattle just has too many unplayable players on the offensive line. There are other parts of this team where you can (and we will) debate how much coaching is the problem, but this is very clearly a talent issue. Seattle will have played the vast majority of two straight seasons with third or fourth string right tackles and bottom five guard play.
The Seahawks attempted to run the ball against a bad run defense in this game. That they failed to do effectively is partially due to some telegraphed play calls, but mostly due to lack of talent on the line.
Everyone knew the 49ers were going to run. Everyone knew the Lions were going to run. The fact that opponents know that each week and they still do it effectively is because they have players who can create running lanes.
The true test of competent run game is being able to run when there is no mystery about what you are going to do. How many times did the Seahawks run to the left behind Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson on 3rd and short? You can dismiss it as being unfair to compare to Hall of Fame level players like Jones or Trent Williams, but that is the bar.
The 2013 Seahawks did not have any Hall of Fame players on their offensive line, but they had gritty and physical guys and a badass running back. It is hard to find the grit or physicality right now.
Never having the best player on the field
One of the truisms in football is the best players need to play their best to win big games or accomplish big things. Another part of that reality is that your best players need to be better than your opponents best players. This Seattle roster lacks greatness.
There are some really promising young players on this team, and some veterans who looked like they were ready to play their best football earlier in the season. The only one who has demonstrated an ability to be close to dominant is Smith. His games against New England and Detroit were masterful. He was nowhere close to that against the 49ers.
Where was Metcalf in this game? San Francisco was missing their top corner. His quarterback gave him chances. The under thrown ball was a play he could have made if he cut off his route and worked back to the ball to go get the football instead of waiting for it to get to him and allowing the defensive back to get there first.
The fatal interception Smith threw was due in large part to Metcalf running a poor route up the field instead of continuing across as his quarterback was counting on him to do.
Those were not situations where he needed to be great. He just needed to be better. The question remains whether he is a player who will ever take the next step to fulfilling his immense talent or just complete his career as a highly productive player who fell short of greatness.
San Francisco had the better quarterback, the best pass rusher, the best linebacker, the best receiver, the best offensive lineman. New York has the most dominant player in Dexter Lawrence. Detroit had the most dominant pass rusher and the best offensive line. These teams had players who are truly great.
Seattle does not. At least, that appears to be the case to this point.
One of the hopeful questions headed into this season was whether Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff could get more out of the players on this roster. Six games in, the signs are mixed, but trending toward negative.
Seahawks fans have to hope the story changes by the end of this year or any talk of building toward something interesting ceases. This team needs to develop dominance in some aspect of how they play. It could be run defense, pass coverage, pass rush, pass offense, or run offense. To do that, they will need players who are so good that they create advantages each and every week no matter the opponent.
Seattle is struggling in almost every aspect right now, and are far from consistent, let alone dominant. It is not hopeless, as some will try to tell you. Their pass rush might be the closest to getting there, and getting Byron Murphy back will help. Get one thing working really well, and then move on.
The coaching conundrum
It is already impossible to have a rational conversation about the Seahawks coaching. There are too many ulterior motives and emotion.
Macdonald was not able to get his team out of tailspin over this three game stretch. That the problems cropped up during a three game in eleven day period of the schedule made it especially challenging. There were only walkthroughs this week, and only one real practice last week. Correcting mistakes without being on the practice field is tough for any coach, let alone a new coach installing a new system with a lot of new players and a lot of injuries.
This was somewhat of a perfect storm with the schedule and facing two NFC favorites in three games. Seattle could have played well and still wound up 1-2. The Giants game is the one that is inexcusable.
Macdonald has inherited a team with some question marks on the leadership side. He, himself, has not yet proven he is adept at coaching the hearts of his players as opposed to just their brains. He does not appear to be a master motivator. You can see in his eyes that he is searching for the right words and the right path through this turbulence.
Even if he is more confident in his approach with the team than with the media, the players need to see results on the field to buy-in. He has to lead his coaches. He has to lead his players. Where Pete Carroll found his footing after being fired twice as an NFL head coach was journaling to the point of finding his core philosophy that he would not waver from, and then finding results that elicited respect and buy-in.
Macdonald does not have the advantage of decades of experience and failures to draw from, or the certainty of how to handle the dramatically expanded responsibilities of being a head coach. The hope was his defensive excellence would allow him to gain initial credibility on one side of the ball so as to narrow the problem areas on this team. That was looking promising early, but now the defense is looking like one of the worst in football, leaving him without any stability to rely on.
Grubb was brought in to guide the offense. That was also looking promising but has hit a rough patch the last two games. The game plan in this was was overly simplistic. Needing to run more does not have to mean running the ball on every first down. There were also precious few easy throws for Smith. The goal line possession at the end of the half was awful. They kept throwing fades on that series and in future red zone opportunities. There was a total lack of imagination that Grubb demonstrated so often at Washington.
The only certainty in this equation is that Grubb and Macdonald are going to grind and grind to look for ways to get this turned around. Neither of them are wired to wilt. Macdonald will probably need more support from folks like Leslie Frazier to keep his mind from spinning out, but this extended break before the next game should help him get his mind right.
He may not have the players he needs to play the defense he wants to play. If that is the case, it may not be until next year that things really turn. The test for him now, even if that is the case, is to find a way to play defense that these guys can do more consistently. It is tough for him to make those assessments when he has not had close to the same defensive lineup most of the year.
Not as bad as you think, but also less good
One thing that stuck out to me in this otherwise gag-worthy game was that the gap between the Seahawks and 49ers has closed quite a bit. That is mostly due to the 49ers being a much less impressive team than they have been in past years.
Consider that Smith played his worst game of the year, Seattle could not run the ball, they lost the turnover “battle” 3-0, they gave up over 200 yards rushing, were behind 23-3, and the Seahawks had multiple chances to win the game.
Yes, the kick return for touchdown is a little fluky, but Seattle dominated the third quarter after the 49ers opening drive. The only touchdown they surrendered in the first half was a coverage bust.
Before the last interception, Seattle was driving. They already had one 94-yard touchdown drive, and had moved from the 3-yard line to the 25 before AJ Barner was hit with a holding call that turned what would have been 2nd and 5 into 1st and 20, changing the menu of plays for Grubb to call and the decision tree for Smith.
And before that possession even happened, there was the bizarre situation where the 49ers had been stuffed on two straight drives and were in trouble again at their own 23-yard line when there was a false start that should have moved them back to the 18-yard line, needing 15 yards to pickup a first down. Instead, the refs did a poor job of whistling the play dead so the players did not stop playing, and Leonard Williams was whistled for a face mask penalty that oddly supersedes the fact that the play was already dead.
Instead of 1st and 15 at their own 18-yard line, it was 1st and 10 at the 38-yard line. Seattle still forced a punt, but the drive started at the 3-yard line.
Everyone will say this was just another dominant 49ers win. It was different. George Kittle was not the physically dominant guy we have seen. Brandon Aiyuk was not running open despite the fact Seattle played most of the game without two of their three of their four top corners corners. Trent Williams was very good, but not blowing open massive holes. The one guy who seemed closest to himself was Deebo Samuel, who was his normal impossible self to bring down.
Seattle was pissing down its leg most of this game. The 49ers of the past couple of seasons would have been up by 30 by halftime and never looked back. This crew is not nearly as good. The Lions feel like the superior team.
The implication here is that as depressing as the last three games have been for the Seahawks, they were in a position to win all of them. Things are likely not as bad as they feel. Unfortunately, what is also true is that this Seahawks team has too many questions to realistically have as high of a ceiling as some hoped.
Seattle gets a much needed breather between now and next Sunday before they travel to Atlanta. Then they get two home games before the bye week and then they play this 49ers team again. Seattle has faced three straight teams that felt more desperate entering the game than they did. That will not be the case in Atlanta. If Seattle can find a way to win that game, they will likely be back in first place (SF plays the Chiefs), with a chance to play better in two straight home games.
The season is not over. The honeymoon period is.
