There are different ways to gain confidence. One of the most common methods is to put yourself in a situation where your desired outcome is almost assured. Lower the difficulty on your favorite video game. Pick up a lighter weight. Push back your deadline. Gaining confidence this way can help you steady yourself when you need a mental break from failure. The challenge is that the confidence gained through this approach is fleeting once you are forced to overcome more difficult obstacles.

There is certainly some appeal in the idea of the Seahawks defense getting a chance to regain their footing against a weak offense before needing to slide up the difficulty level. They will not get that chance this week. Atlanta has one of the better offensive lines in the league, two terrific running backs, and a very capable quarterback.

If there is an upside, it is that this represents a chance for the Seahawks defense to gain some confidence that could last. Find a way to slow down this Atlanta team at home and you just might be able to salvage a season spiraling down the drain.

The Falcons enter this game in somewhat the opposite mental state of the Seahawks. They have won three in a row, all against their division opponents. They have gained confidence in their rushing attack after putting up 198 yards against the Panthers, after already feeling good about a passing game that had gained 477 yards the week prior. They are both protecting the football well and taking it away regularly. All of this is happening behind a sturdy offensive line while staying relatively healthy.

What keeps the Falcons from being a true powerhouse is a defense that struggles mightily to stop the run while being dead last in the league in creating pressure. This combination has allowed opponents to score on 50% of their drives so far this season, ranking 31st in the NFL. Every team has rushed for at least 114 yards against the Falcons, and 5 of 6 have rushed for 128+ yards.

Seattle is expected to welcome back Byron Murphy this week. They have also added Roy Robertson-Harris, who may play in this game. They will have finally had some extra rest and time to prep for a game that will include practice. Riq Woolen may still be out, and the team put Artie Burns on the IR, leaving them heavily reliant on rookie Nehemiah Pritchett. Tre Brown may also be out, which could press Coby Bryant into cornerback duty.

Atlanta is one of the heaviest zone coverage teams in the NFL. They rank 2nd or 3rd in use of zone coverage, depending on which site you use. Geno Smith and the Seahawks have had their biggest games against man coverage teams. The Falcons play predominantly Cover 3, with a focus on limiting explosive passes over the top.

The Falcons will enter this game feeling confident about their ability to move the ball on the ground or through the air. They know their only losses this season have come against the undefeated Chiefs in a close game, and to the 4-2 Steelers. Seattle will appear no more challenging than their last three opponents that they toppled.

Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks did not get a respite in terms of their offensive opponent this week. They will need to play a defensive game they have not been able to conjure up the last three games, while also finding a way to stop turning the ball over on offense.

The good news is this could be a chance for the run game to get untracked for Seattle, which makes this crew exceedingly difficult to stop. Add in the poor pass rush and Smith’s tendency to play his best in domes, and there is reason to think the Seahawks could have their best scoring output of the year.

Seattle may need to score 30+ to win this one. They have a decent shot to do that. Pass rush for the Seahawks could be the deciding factor. Pressure will not be sufficient. They will need to disrupt the passer and create turnover opportunities. Seattle will need to be a different team than they have been to walk away victorious.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

DVOA

New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.

These are two similar teams with advantages on offense. Atlanta has the larger advantages, especially running the ball, and the Seahawks secondary is hurting more than it has all season. Tough sledding for Seattle.

Seahawks Offense vs Falcons Defense

Falcons key advantages on defense

The Falcons do not have many (any?) great players on defense. Grady Jarrett is a disruptive presence in the middle of the line, but is not what he once was. Going against Anthony Bradford may reignite some of his old glory. David Onyemata can be a disruptive pass rushers in the middle as well.

Matthew Judon is their best edge rusher, but is older and no longer elite. They may try to isolate him on Stone Forsythe.

Justin Simmons and Jesse Bates III make for an experienced safety duo, and Mike Hughes is a decent corner. This is a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense. They make you take shorter plays and count on you making a mistake along the way.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

There is not a lot of strength on the defensive line. Seattle should be able to move people and create space that Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have not seem much of this season.

This is the worst defense in the league at forcing incompletions. Smith is one of the most accurate passers. He should have a lot of easy throws in this game, and look for Ryan Grubb to target some screens and underneath plays against the zone. Laviska Shenault and Jake Bobo could get larger roles in this game.

Falcons Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Falcons key advantages on offense

That’s a lot of red. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are a terrific duo at running back, and love running through the lanes created by one of the best guards in football, Chris Lindstrom.

Atlanta lost their quality starting center Drew Dalman to injury, and his replacement (Ryan Neuzil) has been just adequate in his place.

The Falcons do not have many weak spots on offense. They do not have true superstars, but they have the likes of receiver Drake London and Cousins and Darnell Mooney to make plays through the air. Kyle Pitts is a great athlete who has yet to distinguish himself as a great tight end.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Falcons have struggled on 3rd down and in the red zone. They have also been somewhat vulnerable in pass protection. Cousins is not mobile and can hold onto the ball.

Getting Murphy back could be a big deal for the Seahawks defensive line. The extra rest might help Derick Hall and Boye Mafe be back to their old selves.

The Seahawks biggest advantage might be just how awful they have been on defense the past few games. If they correct some of the run fit mistakes they have made and put up a fight, Falcons players and fans may grow frustrated based on how easy they might be expecting things to be.

Special Teams

The Falcons have the placekicking advantage. The Seahawks have the return game advantage, at least on kickoffs.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!