Josh Allen is one-of-a-kind. Fans and media tend to talk about quarterback tiers and rankings, but when watching players like Patrick Mahomes and Allen, you realize they are 1-of-1 players. They present different types of problems, but they both share the distinction of being able to beat any team at any time simply because they walk on the field. Allen gets less adoration because he has no rings. He is the Dan Marino to Mahomes, Joe Montana.
There are weaknesses on this Bills team. They can, and have, been beaten. The hard truth is that if Allen chooses to don his Superman cape on Sunday, Seattle will not win. He is that good.
This Bills team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They have lost some key talent and endured some injuries, but they are a team nobody wants to face. Except, maybe a team like Seattle.
The youthful Seahawks are spending this season finding their identify on both sides of the ball, and learning whether they have what it takes to grow into a contender in future years. Getting back a player like Riq Woolen would be a huge boost against a premier passing team that also just acquired Amari Cooper. Should he return, Seattle would have their first game since Week 1 with their defensive line intact and their top two corners.
Seahawks fans should want to see what their team looks like against a team as good as Buffalo. Sure, there have been some painful games this year, but the performance against the Falcons demonstrates hope remains that this crew can find a formula to beat quality opponents.
Seattle got on the good side of variance against the Falcons when a few calls and a few turnovers finally went their way. There might be more in store. Allen, as elite as he might be, is 4th in the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate (4.3%). Despite 10 plays that should have been takeaways, Allen magically has zero interceptions on the year. Every other quarterback with a TWP rate over 4.0% has at least 4 interceptions. Four have 6+ interceptions.
The Bills have yet to beat a team with a winning record. They got blown out in Baltimore (35-10) and lost to the Texans in Houston (23-20). Their other wins have come against Arizona, Miami (in the game Tua got injured), Jacksonville, New York (Jets), and Tennessee.
This is a defense that will surrender explosive plays, especially on the ground. Connor Williams knows this team well, as does Leslie Frazier, Tyrel Dodson, and Jerome Baker.
The path to an upset for Seattle will involve protecting the football the way they did against Atlanta, and creating a lot of opportunities for Kenneth Walker III as a runner and receiver. Allen is either courageous or stubborn against pressure, depending on your perspective. The Seahawks pass rush came alive agains the Falcons inside and out. They will need that and the presence of a player like Woolen to take advantage of Allen’s tendency to put the ball in harm’s way.
Buffalo has not lost when they score more than 20 points. Their defense is not strong enough to have the majority of the game on their shoulders. Von Miller is also still suspended, which reduces the strength of their pass rush.
The Bills are the right team to be favored, but this game represents a chance to write a new script for the Seahawk season. This should be a better game than the last two at home.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
The Bills are the better team by most measures. Their deficiency on special teams could show up as they have yet to kick a 50+ yard field goal and struggle to cover kicks. More importantly, they struggle to defend WR2, WR3, and RBs as receivers out of the backfield. Given Seattle is likely without D.K. Metcalf, this will mean some new opportunities for various players and hopefully a fully healthy Walker.
Seahawks Offense vs Bills Defense
Bills key advantages on defense
Miller is out. He would be a problem with Mike Jerrell likely getting another start at right tackle. Jerrell will be targeted either way, and Greg Rousseau or A.J. Epenesa are more than capable of giving him trouble. Both are arguably better pass rushers than anyone Jerrell faced in Atlanta. Look for the rookie to struggle in this one.
Ed Oliver is a disruptive force inside and should have success against either guard spot, but especially Laken Tomlinson. DaQuan Jones can be a handful inside as well.
The Bills like to play a lot of zone coverage (8th-most), and neither Jaxon Smith-Njigba nor Tyler Lockett has not been as effective against zone so far this season.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Buffalo has had a lot of coverage busts. Part of that is due to an every-changing list of players in the secondary due to injury. They should be back to relative health, but it remains a problem for that defense. Their run defense, especially up the middle, has been vulnerable.
There has been some vulnerability against screen passes. Laviska Shenault Jr and Jake Bobo figure to get more snaps in this game. Dareke Young might see some time as well. That could provide an opportunity for the Seahawks to have size and strength on the outside to try and overpower the Bills corners.
The Seahawks offense will look different without Metcalf on the field to dictate coverages or threaten the deep ball. Expect a lot of short and intermediate passes, with some screen passes sprinkled in.
Bills Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Bills key advantages on offense
This offense is similar to the Falcons offense, except it has an MVP level quarterback running it. The offensive line is solid and gets a lot of opportunity to run block for two good backs in Ray Davis and James Cook. They are largely the product of this scheme and line, however. Davis averages +0.1 rushing yards over expected per attempt, and Cook averages -0.1, which indicates they are largely getting the yards they should.
Allen can beat you with his arm or his legs. The addition of Cooper as a receiver makes them far tougher to defend. They were largely limited to slot receiver Khalil Shakir as a primary threat, with rookie Keon Coleman providing roughly the production of a third receiver playing as a second. Now, everyone can slide into their respective positions and Allen has more options.
Dalton Kincaid is a quality target at tight end as well. The Bills are a tough game for any linebacking crew. Dodson and Baker will need to be on top of their tackling and decision-making in this one, and there is little chance they will make the right play each time.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Woolen is a great match for Cooper. Witherspoon is a good match for Shakir. Leaving Coleman to either Nehemiah Pritchett or Josh Jobe is a decent state of affairs. If Woolen cannot go, this becomes much, much, tougher.
Spencer Brown, the right tackle, has struggled with false starts and pass protection at times. Derick Hall and/or Boye Mafe should present a significant problem for him. The combination of Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, and Roy Robertson-Harris represents the best line Buffalo has faced. They have to make plays against the run to have opportunities to get after Allen in the pass rush.
Special Teams
The Bills have not kicked a 50+ yard field goal and have surrendered some big kick returns. Seattle has slowly been gaining some traction on special teams the past few weeks.
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