The Los Angeles Rams make the trip to Seattle this week for what has become an overly hospitable venue for opposing teams. The Seahawks have lost three straight at home and have played some of the worst defensive football the stadium has seen during that time. It is rare for a team to wait until Week 9 to play their second division game, but that is the situation for Seattle. As disappointing as the Seahawks have been so far this season, the opportunity remains for them to change the narrative should they find their footing and win the majority of the five division games they have left to play.
Los Angeles has had their own adversity thus far, largely due to a series of serious injuries to key players. Even after getting their star receivers in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back last game, they still are without two of their starting offensive linemen and their best safety. It may not matter.
The Rams could be any team, with any coach, and any quarterback. If they have a running back who can put one foot in front of the other, there have been acres of room to run the football against this Seahawks defense. Seattle has allowed 838 yards over their last six games, good for 31st in the NFL. They have allowed a 49.7% success rate, also good for 31st. Teams are getting everything they want, whenever they want, and the Seahawks have showed no indication they are even making any progress toward stopping it.
Les Snead took a very different tack than John Schneider. He spent a second round pick on a guard/center last year and then spent significant free agent dollars on two guards this year. One of those guards and the draft pick are on IR. Sean McVay has found a way to run the ball either way. Kyren Williams and the Rams offensive line is 10th in the NFL in rushing DVOA. They are 12th in rush EPA. It is hard to imagine the Seahawks holding up against an above average run game.
That does not even factor in Matthew Stafford at quarterback, their talented receivers, or their offensive genius head coach. Other than wishing on a star that something changes for the Seahawks run defense there is not much logical reason to expect a Seattle win in this game.
Los Angeles has a faulty defense. Seattle should be able to score more than the 10 points they scored last weekend if they can avoid tripping over themselves. Without a running game of their own, it is unlikely they will outscore a quality offensive opponent that gets to face this Seahawks defense.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
The Rams are a mediocre team with serious flaws on defense. Kenneth Walker III did not have the game Seattle needed from him against a Bills defense that did not defend running backs well. He gets another shot this week.
Seahawks Offense vs Rams Defense
Rams key advantages on defense
Jared Verse is having a terrific rookie season and may be the best player on that side of the ball already. Kobie Turner should have a good game against the interior of the Seahawks offensive line. Los Angeles made a change recently to help their secondary by benching veteran free agent Tre’Davious White and inserting Cobie Durant. White has been given permission to seek a trade.
Rooke Braden Fiske is second only to Verse in pressures by rookie defenders this season and should have success against the Seahawks inside. Bobby Brown III is a nice young nose tackle who could help plug the run.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
D.K. Metcalf should be back and the Rams have nobody to cover him. The Seahawks receivers have good matchups all around. The question is whether the Seahawks can protect long enough to get to them.
Walker and the Seahawks tight ends should have advantages against the linebackers and safeties as well.
Ryan Grubb has struggled to find a way to run the ball while also utilizing the tempo shotgun package they have featured. Seattle has very little chance of winning if they cannot find a sustainable run game this week.
Rams Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Rams key advantages on offense
Stafford is smart and tough. His receivers make tough catches and Nacua breaks tackles. Seattle has struggled to tackle well all year. McVay will see plenty of weaknesses to attack. The rankings above are misleading given much of the poor performance came before the Rams got their receivers back.
Los Angeles can come in with almost any game plan and feel confident they can score points.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Seattle should be able to get more pressure this week. Stafford will hold the ball and is not someone who breaks outside the pocket. The offensive line struggles to pass protect. Derick Hall and Boye Mafe should have bounce-back games. Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams should be bigger factors as well.
The potential to disrupt the passer will only matter if the team figures out how to defend the run.
Special Teams
Seattle has slowly been improving on special teams all season. Michael Dickson is finally getting back where he belongs near the top of net yards per punt after spending a long time near the bottom.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!