Most of these previews have gone below the surface to find subtleties and nuances to the upcoming game you might not find elsewhere. Not this week. Minnesota comes to town winners of seven straight and tied for the best record in the NFC. They are among the most imposing defenses in the NFL, with one of the most complex and unpredictable pass rushes in the game. Seattle proved again last weekend that they are not ready to compete with the best teams in the NFL, and the Vikings are one of them.
The Packers team that dismantled the Seahawks lost to this Vikings squad. Their defense was significantly worse. Their pass rush was terrible, but it was fierce against the Seattle offensive line. Minnesota boasts a lights out run defense as well. Had the Seahawks shown they could hang with the Packers, the outlook for this game would be very different. That it was so one-sided makes this game solidly in the Vikings favor.
The one path to a win for the Seahawks would be for the defense to play their best football, and create some turnovers against a Vikings offense that has trouble in pass protection and turns the ball over. One other trend of interest is that the Vikings have allowed and average of 141.6 yards rushing over their last three games after not allowing more than 78 yards in their previous four.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
Fresh Faces
It is looking like CB Stephon Gilmore will return for the Vikings. DT Jalen Redmond is in concussion protocol. Starting RT Brian O’Neill missed some snaps against Chicago with a knee injury, but returned with a brace and is expected to be fine.
Geno Smith is expected to play. Kenneth Walker III may return. Look for Jalen Sundell to be the starting center.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
DVOA likes the Vikings, but Seattle does have some advantages on the defensive side of the ball.
Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Vikings key advantages on defense
Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel are excellent edge rushers. Blake Cashman is one of the better middle linebackers in the NFL, especially in coverage. Harrison Smith is still a smart and impactful safety at the age of 35. Redmond, if he can play, has been a big upgrade on the interior since he started a few games back.
Josh Mettllus is a Swiss army knife they play at a variety of positions.
Their best advantage is Brian Flores. He is the DC getting the most out of his team this season, and will probably be in line for a head coaching position this off-season.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
There really are not any. D.K. Metcalf might have a decent matchup here given the explosive plays the Vikings have given up. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is always a threat. It’s slim picking on this side of the ball.
Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Vikings key advantages on offense
Sam Darnold is playing excellent football. He is Geno Smith, except he’s throwing all the touchdowns and fewer interceptions. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are among the best receiver duos in the NFL. They are taking turns creating huge plays.
Minnesota recently got TE T.J. Hockenson back as well to threaten the middle of the field. Aaron Jones is a solid running back.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
There are some weak spots on the offensive line. Blake Brendel and Garrett Bradbury are vulnerable. Dalton Risner can be as well. The Seahawks front seven should have a real advantage, and might be able to force Darnold into some mistakes.
Minnesota does not have the run game the Packers do, which could work in Seattle’s favor and allow the defense to hold this group down.
Special Teams
Seattle has clear advantages across special teams.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!