The new way to have a debate about football is to claim someone either “knows ball” or does not. It is a weapon wielded like The Infinity Gauntlet, where a simple snap of the fingers wipes your argument from the universe as if it never existed. As with any weapon of mass destruction, there is collateral damage. In this case, it is the absence of worthwhile debate and discussion of complex topics where there may not be a true right and wrong, or at least not a knowable right or wrong. One such topic is the future of D.K. Metcalf in Seattle. Bring up the possibility of moving on from the team’s best athlete and one of the NFL’s most productive wide receivers, and you are inviting a flurry of ball knowledge slights. The hope here is to create space for a substantive discussion about the state of the Seahawks and two of the key decisions facing Seattle this offseason.
Baseline context
Metcalf and Smith are both entering the final years of their contracts. Neither is likely to want to play on the final year of their deal, and the Seahawks have reason to want to lower their cap numbers. John Schneider has typically only discussed contract extensions when players reach these final years of their deals.
Metcalf is set to count $31.875M against the cap in 2025. He just turned 27, and will turn 28 at the end of next season. Cutting him or trading him prior to June 1st would save $10.875M against the cap.
Smith is set to count $38.5M against the cap in 2025. He will turn 35 during the 2025 season. Cutting him or trading him prior to June 1st would save $25M against the cap.
Seattle is currently $6M over the cap for 2025. They have many levers that do not involve either of these two players to clear cap space, including saying goodbye to Tyler Lockett ($17M savings), Dre’Mont Jones ($11.572M), Uchenna Nwosu ($8.481M), Noah Fant ($9M), and Rayshawn Jenkins ($5.4M). That does not mean the team wants to let go of all of those players or that they are content keeping Metcalf and Smith at their current cap numbers.
The receiver market has exploded since Metcalf signed his 3 year, $72M ($31M guaranteed) extension in 2022. There are 12 players who are making more than Metcalf’s $24M APY. A player like Jaylen Waddle is 26-years-old and just signed an $84.75M deal with $76M guaranteed and $28.250 APY. The very top of the market is Justin Jefferson at $35M APY. Metcalf’s college teammate, AJ Brown, makes $32M APY. Metcalf will almost certainly be looking for a deal north of $28M APY, and could try to break the $30M mark.
Smith signed a 3 year, $75M ($40M guaranteed) deal in 2023. He is the 19th-highest paid quarterback in the league. at $25M APY. There are three players older than Smith who make more than him:
- Kirk Cousins, 36 ($45M APY)
- Matt Stafford, 36 ($40M APY)
- Aaron Rodgers, 41 ($37.5M APY)
Those players have all had subpar seasons. Derek Carr, 33, makes $37.5M APY and has also had a rough year. Nearly every QB who has signed a deal above Smith has not lived up to their contract. That includes younger players like Dak Prescott (31, $60M APY), Trevor Lawrence (25, $55M APY), Tua Tagovailoa (26, $53.1M APY), Kyler Murray (27, $46.1M APY), and Deshaun Watson (29, $46M APY).
The quarterback market has continued to escalate, but the level of play at the position has not. Seattle signed Smith to the only deal in the NFL that was between $13M APY and $33M APY for a QB.
Geno Smith
Schneider and the Seahawks will look at Smith being unable to replicate his breakout 2022 season (30 TDs, 11 INTs, 100.9 passer rating), his age, and the dearth of market demand for Smith’s services. They have Smith under a team-friendly contract, even in his last season where he is due to make about $25M in cash even with the $38.5M cap hit. Time is on their side in that demand for Smith’s services would not seem to increase after next season when he will be entering his age 36 season.
They might think that 23-year-old Sam Howell is a fallback option they are open to deploying if Smith chooses to holdout and not play under his existing deal. Their primary motivation for extending Smith would be to create cap space for other moves. An extension could clear roughly $10M in cap space, depending on how it was structured.
Smith has little leverage outside of this cap problem for Seattle. He and his agent would need to find another team that was willing to both trade for him and sign him to an extension to create any pressure on Seattle. The teams that might want a quarterback (Las Vegas, New York Jets, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, etc.) will either be positioned to draft one or would be unlikely landing spots for Smith as they are not a QB away from contending. The Browns could possibly think they are in that situation, but a player like Kirk Cousins could be a cheaper option if he is released as expected this offseason.
The prevailing wisdom is this leaves Smith forced to either take another team-friendly deal or play out his final season under the existing contract. That is missing one important aspect of this situation: pressure on Schneider to win.
Smith holding out would force the Seahawks to seriously consider playing Howell, who has not shown he is anywhere close to Smith as a quarterback. They could try to bluff confidence in him, but anyone who has watched Howell in practice against the same competition knows there is a massive gulf between the two players. Schneider and Mike Macdonald are unlikely to truly be ready to bet their reputations on Howell as a starter.
They could look to other options. Sam Darnold is going to be sought-after, but he may not leave Minnesota. If he does, the team that signs him would need to believe they could get this level of performance from him without the benefit of having Kevin O’Connell calling the plays while paying him a hefty sum. You would have to be ready to name him your franchise quarterback. There will be other suitors who might have more money and more certain play callers to attract Darnold even if he becomes a free agent.
Justin Fields will be a free agent. He played middling ball before Russell Wilson took over. Wilson would be a popular option but it seems highly unlikely he would leave Pittsburgh. Drew Lock will be available and Schneider has been enamored with him in the past. Jimmy Garoppolo might be an option depending on what the Rams do. Maybe Mason Rudolph or Cooper Rush or Joshua Dobbs or a younger guy like Malik Willis or Will Levis. Hendon Hooker is locked behind Jared Goff in Detroit. They could possibly make a play for another young guy to compete with Howell.
All of these options are highly risky. Schneider will not be bullied by Smith or his representation, but he also is not blind to the downsides of playing hardball.
It would be in the best interest of Smith and Schneider to agree to some sort of incentive-laden deal that would lower his 2025 cap hit while protecting the team against poor performance and gives Smith a chance to be paid for good performance.
The logical range would probably put bump Smith up to where Baker Mayfield is at $33M APY, with escalators that could go higher with incentives. That would put Smith roughly where he is now, with a chance to get toward the Stafford range ($40M APY) if he earns it. Smith’s camp will want more, and could justify more based on the performance of many of the players ahead of him. The carrot to accepting the incentive-laden deal would be getting higher guarantees that come with a multi-year contract.
Signing Smith to a 3 year extension that really is a 2 year deal would not preclude the team from drafting and pursuing his replacement. People who want them to move on from Smith right now have to be ready to accept one of the names above, and assume Darnold is not an option. There will not be a team who would trade for Smith, so this would be a straight cut to recoup cap space.
Macdonald would also need to believe he could continue getting the locker room to buy in with one of these other players. It would seem far more tempting to stick with the guy you know and provide him with a better offensive line, and a new play caller who takes some pressure off Smith with the run game.
Prediction: Smith and the team agree to a 3 year deal with heavy incentives and guarantees between $50-60M
D.K. Metcalf
Metcalf is a very different situation. Nobody is claiming Metcalf is a bad player or not worthy of a new contract. The question is whether the team will be better situated to take a step forward by paying Metcalf $28-30M APY or by trading him for a draft pick and allocating that cap space elsewhere.
A plausible option could be trading Metcalf to a team like the Steelers to reunite him with Wilson, knowing the Steelers were heavily in the receiver market this past offseason. You could expect a 2nd round pick, and possibly more, in return. You would free up roughly $11M in cap space in 2025, and a lot more in future years.
This would leave you with a big hole at receiver. No matter how good Jaxon Smith-Njigba is, he is not sufficient at the position. There is also no other speed on the roster to stretch defenses or command safety help. You would be making life harder for JSN, your new play caller, your quarterback, and your run game.
You would not make this move because you expect to replace Metcalf with an equivalent player. You would make this move to help shift money to the offensive line and bring in a free agent like James Daniels or Nate Herbig, and draft a young receiver.
While it is highly unlikely you would find another Metcalf, the supply of good young receivers has never been greater. You also may benefit from a skill set that differs from Metcalf, who struggles to make contested catches or line up in multiple spots or run a diverse route tree.
Consider that Puka Nacua, Josh Downs, Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey, Tank Dell, Keon Coleman, Jayden Reed, Michael Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, George Pickens, Khalil Shakir, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and many others were taken after the 1st round in the last three drafts. Also consider that Schneider has a solid track record of scouting and drafting receivers.
Here is every receiver he has drafted in the first three rounds during his time in Seattle:
- First Round
- JSN
- Second Round
- Golden Tate
- Metcalf
- Paul Richardson
- Dee Eskridge
- Third Round
- Tyler Lockett
- Amara Darboh
There are some misses, but the hit rate is very high, with some of his biggest wins. Part of the discussion would be whether your roster would be stronger with a player the level of Jayden Reed and JSN, plus cap space for the offensive line and possibly another position (Jarran Reed?) or Metcalf.
There is undoubtedly more risk in moving Metcalf. You know what you will get with him. That is also part of the problem. It is hard to see much upside with Metcalf beyond what you have already seen. Teams have been able to effectively take him away. Part of that could be due to play calling or the offensive line. Part of it is due to his limitations as a route runner and a contested catcher.
Metcalf was a primary reason the team was winning earlier in the year against teams like New England and Miami. It has been a long time since Seattle won a game primarily because of Metcalf’s contributions. Maybe his injury in Atlanta has contributed to that fading of impact.
Paying Metcalf would be a bet that a new play caller and improvement on the offensive line derived from existing player development (Christian Haynes, Olu Oluwatimi, Sataoa Laumea), new draft pick(s), and cheaper free agents could unlock the offense. It would be a statement that creating a new hole to fill at receiver is a not worth the risk of backsliding.
Schneider is not one to typically let good players go, especially ones at premium positions. Macdonald has been effusive in his praise of what Metcalf brings, and would probably be hard to convince that the team would be better off letting him go.
There would have to be a very aggressive offer to get Schneider to seriously consider a move. Metcalf is one of the few players on the roster who could conceivably generate a bidding war. That either strengthens the case to keep him or move him, depending on your bias.
Prediction: Seattle signs Metcalf to a 3-year extension with $75-80M in guarantees.