It has been a long time since the Seahawks faced a team they have clearly outperformed. The Jets have struggled but there were aspects of that defense that were not a good matchup for Seattle. Atlanta had challenges rushing the passer, but had a great run offense and solid offensive line at a time when the Seahawks defense was struggling to stop anyone. You would have to go back to the New York Giants or Miami Dolphins to find a game Seattle entered where they were favored.

Seattle sits as 3.5 point favorites against a Bears squad that has lost 9 straight games and has already fired their head coach. Seahawks fans know better than to breathe easy. Playing on the road on a short week when meaningful travel is required during the holiday season is no easy task, especially when playing in the frigid temperatures of the midwest. Road favorites are just 3-2 on the year on Thursday Night Football. Seattle has been favored on the road on TNF three times in franchise history (2017, 2015, 2013), and are 3-0 in those games, but each involved a short trip to either Arizona or San Francisco. The Seahawks are also coming off a physical and demoralizing loss that dramatically reduced their playoff odds.

In other words, the intangibles favor the Bears, even if just about everything else favors the Seahawks. Should Seattle find their way to a win, and get a little help elsewhere, they will have an extended period to rest and prepare for their final game against the Rams. First things first.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

Fresh Faces

Chicago lost starting left tackle Braxton Jones to a serious injury against the Lions, and will not play in this game. His replacement was Larry Borom in that game. Borom was a 5th round pick in 2021, and has not had a season with a grade over 48.0 since 2022. Left guard Teven Jenkins has been battling a variety of ailments and wound up being replaced by former Seahawk Jake Curhan against Detroit. Curhan is the same player who struggled enough to not make the Seahawks roster.

Defensive tackle Gervin Dexter Sr has not played the last two weeks with a knee injury, and has been replaced with Jonathan Ford. Ford has played 42 snaps in his career, all in the last two games. He was overmatched versus the Lions. Dexter practiced in limited capacity on Tuesday, which could open the door for a return in this game.

There are some familiar faces on the Bears including: Travis Homer, Darrell Taylor, Jacob Martin, Curhan, and Gerald Everett. Rome Odunze, from University of Washington is also on the team.

Seattle may be without the services of their top two running backs, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. Kenny McIntosh and George Holani could find themselves taking on the bulk of the carries.

DVOA

New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.

DVOA favors the Seahawks for the first time in a while.

Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense

Bears key advantages on defense

Jaylon Johnson is an excellent cover corner. Terrell Smith has stepped in and done a decent job at corner as well. Kyler Gordon is a quality nickel corner to make for a decent trio. Dexter Sr. is a disruptive presence inside.

Montez Sweat leads the team in pressures and DeMarcus Walker is a decent edge on the other side. Taylor will be motivated to make an impact.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The Bears give up an alarming number of explosive plays, especially through the air. Geno Smith and his receivers should have opportunities to attack this defense through the air. They are also vulnerable on the ground, but that would require the Seahawks to call enough run plays to exploit that weakness.

This defense has really given up since their coach was fired. Scoring early, which has not been something Seattle has done well, could lead to some business decisions by the Bears defense as the game goes on.

Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Bears key advantages on offense

Caleb Williams is a boom or bust player. He can make some of the best off-script throws you will ever see, but struggles to see the field and can take a lot of sacks. Losing his star left tackle and possibly his left guard will not help in that regard. It may cause him to utilize his legs more and extend plays for longer.

His receivers are excellent, albeit not altogether behind their quarterback. DJ Moore is excellent, but has not always been on the same page as Williams. Cole Kmet is a strong tight end who can break tackles after the catch.

D’Andre Swift can be a shifty back.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Seahawks defensive line should have a huge advantage against the left side of the Bears line and even the center and right guard. Williams is not equipped to handle the complex looks Mike Macdonald can draw up. He has been great at avoiding turnovers, but this might be the game where that changes.

Special Teams

The special teams are relatively even.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!