The goodbye was tearful. Pete Carroll spoke of his wife, Glena, and his voice cracked as he displayed a rare moment absent of joy and optimism. An era was ending in Seattle. The best era. One that saw them reach heights that still offer delight upon reflection many years later. Carroll spoke about the opportunity in front of his former partner, John Schneider, to lead the franchise. The fact that Schneider remained when Carroll did not indicated ownership believed the talent on the team was superior to the results the coaches were producing. There was some validation in that belief when the defense that had been spiraling downward for a decade, rose to nearly a top ten unit and the team won 10 games in the first season sans Carroll. There were still vestiges, though, of the culture and talent that Carroll had cultivated underpinning the success of this new staff. Geno Smith’s revival in the NFL was a product of his talent fusing with the confidence Carroll imbued and the opportunity presented. While many fans felt Smith represented a ceiling for how good this team could be, he was more of a floor raiser than a ceiling setter. This offseason was always going to be tightrope walk for Schneider. His trade of Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders removes the net.
Carroll shadow looms
Attachments to players tend to be more pronounced in coaches than personnel departments. Coaches are working with guys more often and in close quarters. General managers and scouts are constantly looking for new faces who have the potential to be better than players already on the roster. Getting too attached to a player is almost antithetical to their job. Carroll and Schneider were in perfect alignment when they first arrived in Seattle Carroll had not yet formed any attachment to players and Schneider was free to explore every avenue to improve the team. That quickly changed as the pair built a championship roster in record time. Carroll was a steadfast proponent of many of the players and coaches that lifted the first Lombardi Trophy in Seattle. Schneider saw the inevitable effects of age and injury. Fissures began to appear what had been a shared vision between Carroll and Schneider.
Releasing an injured Richard Sherman, saying goodbye to Bobby Wagner, pursuing a trade of Russell Wilson, were all decisions that were reported to come from Schneider’s desk. Carroll, of course, had veto power and could have overruled. In fact, he was reported to have done exactly that when Schneider had agreed to the framework of a trade for Wilson to the Chicago Bears a full year prior to when the quarterback was ultimately moved. Part of Carroll’s superpower to create a fully bought in and motivated locker room comes from his loyalty to the players. It also appeared to blind him at times to the decline or flaws in players and coaches.
There could not be a more perfectly crafted way to test the philosophical differences between Carroll and Schneider than the trade of Smith.
Schneider almost certainly looked at Smith’s age (will turn 35 this season), price (rumored to be $40-45M per year), and production, and set a hard limit on how far he would go to keep him in Seattle. Carroll is the last person to see age as a barrier to production, and wants a player he knows and loves to create a winning culture right away.
Sam Darnold is the favorite to become the next Seahawks quarterback, according to multiple reports. His asking price is expected to be lower than Smith’s. Assume for a second that his contract will be between $30-37M per year, and that it will include performance escalators he has to meet that protect Seattle from his breakout season being an aberration.
That would mean Schneider saw two options in front of him:
Option 1
- Sign Smith (34, turning 35) at $40-45M per year for 3 years.
Option 2
- Sign Darnold (27 years old) at $30-37M per year for 3 years
- Add a 3rd round pick
Despite the fact that Darnold outperformed Smith statistically in 2024, Smith is widely considered the better quarterback. There is some proof of that perception in the fact that a team like the Raiders chose to surrender a 3rd round pick and reportedly plan to extend Smith instead of simply signing Darnold themselves.
Option 2 seems appealing on face value, but it comes with far more risk. Darnold is just a few years removed from joining the Carolina Panthers as a starter and throwing only 9 TDs in 11 starts while tossing 13 interceptions. If Darnold was the product of a terrific offensive coaching staff in Minnesota last year, along with arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL, Seattle could find themselves falling out of mediocrity instead of rising above it.
This decision puts a ton of pressure on his second-year head coach and their brand new offensive coordinator, who touted Smith as a major reason he was excited to be here. This doesn’t even account for the potential of a DK Metcalf trade.
What even the most ardent Smith supporters need to acknowledge is that his time as the Seahawks starter was coming to an end at some point in the next 2-3 years, barring a trip to the Fountain of Youth. Some may point at the long career of a guy like Tom Brady as evidence that Smith had more in the tank. The reality is that last year was mostly a referendum on older QBs.
Kirk Cousins (35), was signed to a big deal and now may be released. Aaron Rodgers (41) was mediocre and unable to lift the Jets. Russell Wilson (35) had a brief flash and then plummeted to the point of possibly losing any chance of being a starter again in the NFL. Even Matt Stafford (37) regressed massively during the regular season before salvaging his job with a terrific set of playoff performances.
Schneider has to know there is more risk in the path he has picked. Darnold, at his best, is a similar player to Smith at a younger age. Signing him would have no effect on their desire to draft a young heir apparent. It may increase the odds that they consider using their first pick on that position.
The best way to mitigate this risk is to have a proven veteran in Darnold compete with a rookie and a guy like Sam Howell to see who earns the starting job. That is nothing new to Schneider who once signed Matt Flynn the same year he drafted Russell Wilson and already had Tarvaris Jackson on the roster.
It would be ideal if that rookie was picked after the first round to alleviate the pressure to play someone taken that high. The question for Schneider will be whether he believes the guy he likes will fall to them in the second or third round as Wilson did. That is where a Metcalf trade could come in, either netting a second first round pick or, more likely, a high second. Owning a pick in the 30s could give Schneider some confidence that he could get one of the QB prospects he likes.
Impact on Metcalf deal
One of the more fascinating aspects of this upheaval is the interplay between the Metcalf and Smith situations. All signs pointed to the Seahawks wanting to sign both players as recently as a week ago. There were reports of teams inquiring about Metcalf, but that is very different than the team wanting to trade him.
Reports indicate there was meeting with Metcalf that ultimately led to the receiver requesting a trade. That trade request was made public Wednesday. Reports say that Smith was offered a deal that he declined and no counteroffer was made. As of this morning, Jordan Schultz reported that Smith requested a trade the day ofter Metcalf made that request.
Was the Smith request related to the Metcalf request? He had made no secret of his love for having a player like Metcalf as a target. Maybe the combination of another new offensive coordinator without either Tyler Lockett or Metcalf in the receiving room was enough to make Smith prefer to go elsewhere.
There is also the possibility that Metcalf’s trade request came after he had some indication that the Seahawks were going to be making a QB switch. His side has mentioned wanting, “quarterback stability,” as part of their reason for requesting a trade. That could have been a reference to the older Smith being replaced by a younger player over the course of Metcalf’s next deal or this churn we are witnessing right now.
Maybe most intriguing is the potential that Metcalf was not enamored with Smith as the quarterback here and part of the reason he wanted out was to play with someone else. If that is the case (and there are no credible reports that it is), the trade of Smith might open the door to Metcalf signing an extension with the Seahawks after all.
Darnold did pretty well with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison last season. Perhaps that is part of the pitch to Metcalf. Should Metcalf still want out, the Raiders may no longer be a potential destination if he has doubts about playing with Smith.
One of the most striking aspects of this situation is that it appears the team wanted to keep both players. Metcalf has forced their hand by going public with his trade request, and then Smith did the same, albeit privately.
Mike Macdonald has not been here long enough or forged deep enough relationships to help bridge gaps between the front office and these players. You could imagine someone like Carroll intervening to bring the two sides together. While a laudable skill, that may not always be in the best interest of the team. Holding on too tight to players who either do not want to be there or are later in their careers is not a great recipe for creating an ascending roster.
The upside of all the risk the Seahawks would be staring in the face if both Smith and Metcalf are dealt is that they would have the opportunity to create a young core that would not be limited by age or price tag. Imagine if Smith stayed and played splendidly this season. You still would need his replacement within a few years. There is no such limit now.
More twists remain
As much as it seems Darnold is the team’s top choice, there is the chance he signs elsewhere. Things get pretty dicey if he does. Rodgers is a name that has come up given his prior relationship with Schneider in Green Bay. That would be an unmitigated disaster. A fanbase that was already split on Smith would almost universally despise Rodgers on a variety of levels. His only redeeming quality would be the knowledge that he would only play a single season before yielding to a younger option.
Justin Fields is said to be headed back to Pittsburgh, but Seattle could change that equation. Fields is young (26), has game-breaking running ability, and some connection with Jaxson Smith-Njigba from his time at Ohio State. Fields is also a pretty awful passer, who has not done well in play-action or under-center, which are staples of the Kubiak system.
Cousins could be an option, but his lack of mobility following his injury makes him a challenging fit as well. Jimmy Garoppolo was an option for the Rams if they moved on from Stafford, and might be an option here. Derek Carr, who was Kubiak’s quarterback in New Orleans, might be attainable given the Saints cap situation. Schneider has always been enamored with Drew Lock. Zach Wilson could convince someone to give him another shot. Trey Lance is a free agent for the first time. If these names send shivers down your spine, keep that in mind when you reflect on the Geno Smith era.
One name you will not hear is Wilson. Multiple reports have confirmed he will not be considered. That bridge is pretty burned.
We also heard that Schneider initially tried to pry edge rusher Maxx Crosby from the Raiders in exchange for both Smith and Metcalf. Las Vegas declined and soon extended Crosby, but that indicates Seattle could be in the market for another pass rusher.
Myles Garrett is the big name. Trey Hendrickson of the Bengals was recently given permission to seek a trade. Both players are around 30-years-old, which a buyer beware time for pass rushers, but keep an eye on whether Seattle wades into those waters.
Sleight of hand meets sledge hammer
The fan base has been apathetic the past few years, especially last year. Their favorite players had mostly gone. Their beloved coach was gone. Their replacements neither had the charisma nor the results on the field to generate new enthusiasm and engagement. Trading Smith has woken a hornet’s nest of activity and interest. Some are crestfallen and furious. Some are energized and optimistic. Many are curious.
This trade will not define Schneider’s tenure as the Grand Poobah of the Seahawks football operation. His next steps will.
Seattle has more cap space than almost any team in the NFL, even before trading Metcalf or restructuring Uchenna Nwosu’s deal. They have no excuse to be outbid on the open market for a player that can make them better. Fans would be more excited to hear Schneider had signed center Drew Dalman than to hear they got a new quarterback.
If he goes after bargain basement offensive linemen and signs a journeyman quarterback in Darnold and then reaches for a quarterback in the first round, this could be the beginning of the end for his time in Seattle. If he adds one or two quality free agent linemen and drafts another, while getting a Day 2 rookie QB to pair with a younger version of Smith for cheaper, the Seahawks history books will remember him very differently.
Do not turn around and sign one of the aging veteran receivers. Do not bring in a toxic presence like Rodgers. Do not deviate from your best player available draft strategy that has worked well the past three years.
Schneider has to exit a Metcalf trade with at least a high second round pick, and likely more, to have a good shot at coming out of this better in a year or two. Seattle currently has four picks in the Top 100. A Metcalf trade could give them six. That is the kind of ammunition that could infuse your roster with young talent at a variety of positions and allow the new coaching staff to build the identity they seek. This can be the start of something new and special.
All this prestidigitation has captured the attention of fans and the league. That will quickly fade if Seattle does not emerge from this cloud of construction as a much tougher and more entertaining team.