Everyone will tell you this game represents the first real test for the Seahawks. They are correct. Seattle has had the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point. Not only that, but a closer look tells you this high-flying defense has faced the easiest offensive opponents (32nd per DVOA), and the offense has faced a mild slate as well (27th-toughest).

What nobody will tell you is the Lions offense has not been tested yet either. The defenses they have faced combine to be the 26th-toughest. Tampa Bay (15th), Arizona (23rd), and the Rams (31st) are not exactly an intimidating group.

One difference between the Seahawks defense and the Lions offense is that Seattle has actually dominated their easy opponents. No team in football has allowed fewer yards per drive (19.7). No other team has allowed fewer yards per play, or fewer passing yards. The most yards any individual receiver has had in a game against this secondary is 45 yards. The official tally is they have surrendered 43 points (14.3 points per game), but four of those came on safeties, and nine came on field goals following turnovers deep in their territory. The true number is closer to 30 points (10.0 points per game).

The Lions offense has scored over 20 points just once. Their franchise quarterback has thrown four interceptions and has a passer rating under 80 (79.2). They do not rank in the Top 10 in points, yards, or yards per play despite the easy slate.

Taking this Detroit offense lightly would be foolish. Underestimating the Seahawks defense would be welcome.

There is no shortage of fascinating subplots to this game. Detroit is one of the favorites to reach, and possibly win, the Super Bowl. Seattle is the team that comes to town undefeated. Seattle and Detroit have played in each of the last three seasons. Seattle is 3-0 in those games, averaging 45.3 points.

Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for the Lions, was interviewed for the Seahawks head coaching role prior to Mike Macdonald. John Schneider left Detroit without making an offer and then Johnson pulled his name from consideration for any head coaching gig. Macdonald was named the new head coach a week later.

Geno Smith and Jared Goff have put up huge numbers in this matchup the past two years. Both QBs have thrown for 300+ yards in each game. But Goff will be facing a different Seahawks defense. It is coached by the man who humiliated him and Johnson last year in Baltimore, holding the Lions to a season-low 6 points, and Goff to a paltry 14.8 quarterback rating.

Injuries are going to play a big factor. Seattle is likely to be missing their two best interior defensive linemen in Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy after they were hurt against Miami. Detroit just found out their All-Pro center tore a pectoral muscle and almost certainly will miss this game with a bye the following week. The man expected to replace him, guard Graham Glasgow, hurt his arm this weekend and played through considerable pain.

The Lions also lost multiple starters on defense when edge rusher Marcus Davenport and linebacker Derek Barnes went down.

The Seahawks are hoping to welcome back Kenneth Walker III, Uchenna Nwosu, and possibly Jerome Baker.

What will likely decide this game is pretty simple. The Lions are an excellent running offense, with a great offensive line and two running backs who can attack you with strength or speed. Seattle has had a questionable run defense.

The Seahawks passing offense has thrived against man coverage teams like the Lions (4th-highest man coverage usage in the league), and the Lions have struggled to defend WR2 and WR3 so far this season.

The team most able to diminish the strength of the opposing offense will likely win. That is where coaching comes in. It is hard not to like Macdonald and Grubb over Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Look for the Seahawks to leave Detroit with a win and heightened expectations.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

DVOA

New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.

The DVOA storyline slants toward Seattle. Detroit ranks lower on defense, offense, and overall. Running the ball is one advantage for the Lions, but not by as much as you might expect given the Seahawks problems against the Patriots in week two. The other is on special teams, which will be covered in that section below.

One ranking that will truly be tested in the Seahawks ability to defend the running back as a receiver out of the backfield. Jahmyr Gibbs caught 52 passes last season, and already has 11 this year. Gibbs caught 9 passes against Macdonald’s Ravens last year for 58 yards. He also carried it 11 times for 68 yards, including a 21 yard touchdown. Seattle has improved their missed tackles each week, and that will be tested in this one.

Seahawks Offense vs Lions Defense

Lions key advantages on defense

Getting this far into a preview of a game involving the Lions without mentioning Aidan Hutchinson is almost disqualifying. Hutchinson is an early candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He has 6.5 sacks and leads the NFL in pressures. Detroit will have the benefit of lining him up against a backup Seahawks tackle for the second straight year. Last year, it was Jake Curhan. This year, it will be third string tackle Stone Forsythe.

Hutchinson was expected to be dominant in that game a year ago after Seattle lost both starting tackles in week one. He wound up being a non-factor. He had no sacks, no hits, and just two tackles. Given the Seahawks problems in pass protection, that seems very unlikely to occur again.

DJ Reader was a big free agent addition in the middle of the Lions line. He has made it hard to run against whichever team he has been on over the years. He will make it hard to create space in the run game.

Brian Branch is in the concussion protocol. Early signs are that he should be available to play, and he is a difference maker either at safety or at nickel corner.

Alim McNeill is day-to-day after an injury against the Cardinals. He is a disruptive presence on the defensive interior should he suit up, and would give the Seahawks guards trouble.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Seattle has had problems in pass protection in each game this season. Hutchinson is probably the best individual pass rusher they have faced, with Keion White of the Patriots in the conversation. That said, the Broncos and the Dolphins have a better pass rush than Detroit.

The Lions have been largely one dimensional in rushing the passer. Only one other player has even a single sack. Only two players have even a half-sack. Coming up with a blocking scheme to provide extra help for one pass rusher is much more straightforward than a multi-faceted attack.

Pharaoh Brown gives the team a new weapon to deploy in pass protection after he shook the dust off against the Dolphins with a few de-cleating blocks.

Glenn loves to play man defense and blitz. The Lions blitz at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL (31.0%). Smith is the 5th-highest graded QB when blitzed this season and has a 108.2 passer rating in those situations. The only other team Seattle has played who plays a similar amount of man coverage was the Patriots. Smith had one of the most efficient and impressive games of his career in that one.

New England has a better secondary than Detroit, especially at the cornerback spot. The Patriots have Jonathan Jones (72.4 coverage grade), Marcus Jones (71.2), and Christian Gonzalez (53.2). Gonzalez is a good player despite the grade. The Lions have Amik Robertson (63.7), Carlton Davis III (55.8), and rookie Terrion Arnold (45.1).

Arnold ranks 102 out of 106 qualifying corners and has already been flagged 5 times. Put Tyler Lockett against the youngster and he might have twice that many flags before this game is over.

The Lions secondary is better than those grade indicate, but it is far from a shutdown group. Detroit faced an injured an inexperienced Jaxon Smith-Njigba last season. Metcalf shook off a slow week one to have two field-tilting performances. There would be no better place for his Megatron impersonation than in Detroit.

Noah Fant came alive against the Dolphins and was a big part of the win last year in Detroit.

While the Seahawks can rightly claim the Lions are largely the same defense and scheme they played well against last year, the Lions cannot say that about the Seahawks offense. Grubb and crew are more explosive in spite of the porous pass protection.

Walker making a return would be a huge lift and cause even more stress for Glenn’s defense.

Lions Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Lions key advantages on offense

This has been the best offensive line in football for the last two years. Losing Ragnow, who was the best center in football last year, would be a big loss. They still boast two great tackles and very solid guard play. Losing Murphy and Williams makes the Seahawks defensive line far less dynamic.

Guys like Myles Adams and Mike Morris would probably get more snaps. Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins would have to do their best work in run defense to prevent Detroit from shoving the ball down their throats.

David Montgomery is a terrific battering ram of a back, and gets the bulk of the carries. Gibbs is the speedy change-of-pace who threatens the edges. Seattle has not had to defend both styles in the same game the way they will in this one.

Dan Campbell is hyper aggressive. He will make Seattle defend Detroit for four downs more than almost any coach in football. The Seahawks are the 3rd-best defense against 4th downs in the NFL so far.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is a fantastic receiver who shares a lot of qualities with former Seahawk Doug Baldwin. He is an excellent route runner with great hands who is super tough. Jameson Williams is the speedster who will challenge the secondary deep.

Sam LaPorta has been their bell cow at tight end after a huge rookie season, but he hurt his ankle last week and has not had a great year so far. He might be the biggest challenge for this defense after seeing what Hunter Henry did in week two.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle has to feel good about the way the corners and safeties are playing so far. There is not a matchup in the league they should fear. Tre Brown had a sack and a pick six against Detroit last year. Devon Witherspoon was victimized on a trick play in his first NFL game, and has to be looking for payback. Riq Woolen hurt his shoulder in the game. Julian Love played some of his worst football against Detroit.

This group with Rayshawn Jenkins and either K’Von Wallace or Coby Bryant feels completely different than the one that had Quandre Diggs.

Tyrel Dodson and any of the other linebackers feels completely different than the one that had Bobby Wagner.

Boye Mafe was not starting in that game. Darrell Taylor was still the starting edge. Derick Hall was a shadow of what he has now become.

The assumption is that both Williams and Murphy do not play. Neither player is replaceable.

Macdonald will need to do his best work to scheme around their absences.

Lions fans will tell you the offense has been much better than the numbers indicate and that they have really just bogged down in the red zone (26th-ranked performance). Seattle has the 4th-best red zone defense.

Where everyone will give the benefit of the doubt to the Lions offense and say the Seahawks defense has not faced an offense this good, it very much feels like the Lions will be the ones who have to adjust to playing a defense this talented and well coached.

Special Teams

The Lions have outplayed the Seahawks in punting and punt coverage. The return games are similar, but Dee Williams has clearly gained some confidence with big returns in each of the last two games.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!