Unpredictability is massive part of what makes sports captivating. We watch because we do not know what will happen on any given play in any game in any season. Players and teams rise and fall. The NFL has been designed pull everyone toward the middle. The best teams are dragged down, and the worst teams are pushed up. The draft, free agency, the salary cap, and the brevity of player careers makes it nearly impossible to sustain excellence. Seattle started a regenerative cycle two years ago when they traded Russell Wilson and became one of the youngest teams in football. Instead of dropping down to the depths of the NFL, they managed to have a winning record in both 2022 and 2023. That might sound like success, but being one game over .500 each season puts a franchise in danger of being mired in the mediocre middle of the league where the gravitational pull will gladly keep you in an endless orbit, just outside of relevance. A variety of outcomes must break toward the high end of their variant scenarios in order to achieve the necessary escape velocity. Early signs are that may be exactly what is happening.
Byron Murphy
The first round pick was a player that was expected to go in the top ten picks of the draft. He should not have been available when Seattle picked at 16. The Titans choosing JC Latham took a player the Seahawks were rumored to be enamored with off the board. The Falcons choosing Michael Penix Jr. removed a likely landing spot for Murphy and made Rome Odunze available for the Bears, who were set to pick Murphy if Odunze was not available. It is possible that the severity of injury to Ryan Ramczyk forced the Saints to address that need instead of being tempted to draft the best defender. The Colts managing to agree on an extension to defensive tackle DeForest Bucker prior to the draft took another suitor off the board. The compounding probabilities of what needed to happen for Murphy to wind up in Seattle is already dizzying. It took remarkable good fortune for this scenario to play out.
None of that factors in the possible scenarios for how good of a player he would prove to be. Murphy started camp slowly, but has become a dominant force once pads came on. He consistently wins against various competition in 1v1 pass rush drills, and did the same this week against the Titans during joint practices according to reports from both Titans and Seahawks reporters.
He was possibly the best player on the field in his first preseason game against the Chargers, showing impact against the run and the pass. Players and scouts have been drooling over what they saw. Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, and Chris Long have already dubbed him a player to watch.
Teammates and coaches have commented on how coachable he is, how disciplined he is in taking care of his training, and how hard he works.
It would be hard for this to be going any better for Seattle to this point.
Riq Woolen
Woolen had a mischaracterized 2023 season after gaining national acclaim as a rookie. People oversimplified that he took a step back. The truth is that he was one of the top press man cover corners in the NFL. What he struggled with was tackling and playing off coverage. He also dealt with some injuries.
There were fair questions raised about whether his body and mind were going to be a fit for Mike Macdonald’s defense. He had always been a relatively carefree spirit. It was not clear whether he would put in the work on his body and his game to grow.
He came to camp stronger and committed to changing the narrative about what many had called a “down” year. His work with coaches on improving his off coverage has shown up in camp. His improved strength has helped him battle with D.K. Metcalf in ways that few can. He impressed all that witnessed him at the joint practices with the Titans.
Leslie Frazier, Mike Macdonald, and Aden Durde have all been measured in their praise, not because they fear he is not playing well, but because they want to keep a player who looks like is ready to realize his seemingly limitless potential grounded and grinding.
What appeared to be a player teetering toward “good but not great” status, now appears poised become one of the best cornerbacks in football.
Christian Haynes
Seattle was widely known to need better interior line play headed into the draft. Most draft analysts predicted they would pick a player like Troy Fautanu in the first round. The decision to pick Murphy meant the Seahawks would not have another pick until the third round.
Christian Haynes was expected to go in the second round, but somehow lasted all the way to the Seahawks in the third.
He was coming from a lesser football school in UConn, where it was fair to question how well he would do against stiffer competition.
Like Murphy, he started camp slowly but gained steam as the pads came on. After getting some reps with the first string at left guard when Laken Tomlinson took veteran rest days and having a strong first preseason game, he was given the chance to play with the starters at right guard in the Seahawks final joint practice with the Titans.
This represents a sizable step toward the high end of the variance of outcomes, which would be for him to be a starter when the season begins. He was very clearly not on that track for the first two weeks of camp. That the coaches are seeing enough to open the door to a starting job bodes well.
It should be acknowledged that part of this also has happened because second year guard Anthony Bradford has not improved enough as a pass blocker to defend his starting role. Still, that was not a huge surprise. Having a rookie pushing him and possibly surpassing him before week one would represent improvement over last season’s level of play at the position.
Charles Cross
Cross was the 9th overall pick in the draft, and first choice that came to Seattle as part of the Wilson trade. He has been a slightly above average left tackle in his first two years. Still just 23 years old, Cross spent his offseason improving his strength and flexibility.
His movement skills look fluid and special in pass protection. Nobody has been able to beat him in 1v1 pass rush drills. Although, there was a report that Arden Key of the Titans may have beat him once in the second joint practice.
Ryan Grubb has been glowing in his evaluation of what he can become, and Cross looks ready to take the next step in his development. It is too early to say whether he has improved as a run blocker, but even if he simply becomes a high quality pass protector, that would represent a critical jump in not only offensive line play, but in how the offense can operate.
Derick Hall
Seattle used one of their two second round picks last year to draft Hall as a pass rusher. They claimed he was one of only 15 players with a 1st round grade on their board. That evaluation appeared dubious when Hall struggled mightily as a rookie.
He was unproductive as a pass rusher and ineffective as a run defender. It was not a season that would make a 5th round rookie feel good, let alone a 2nd rounder.
Hall attacked his offseason with vigor and returned to camp looking both stronger and leaner. He also has shown more bend and more variability in his pass rush repertoire. Hall credited boxing for helping expand his hand fighting and counter moves.
He may be the early leader among the edge rushers in demonstrating chemistry with the interior linemen when it comes to two-man twists and stunts. His top-shelf power is tough to handle when you know it is coming as an offensive lineman. It becomes far harder when you are not anticipating it because Hall comes tearing around the back of Murphy or Leonard Williams and strikes an unsuspecting guard.
Hall led the team in tackles and pressures in his first preseason game, and appears well on track to make his rookie season a distant memory.
D.K. Metcalf
A player who already has established himself as one of the top 20 at his position in the NFL might seem like an odd addition to this list. The reality is Metcalf has the physical talent to be the best receiver in football. What has kept him from that has been some combination of who was calling the plays, who was throwing him the football, and his attention to detail, especially around contested catches.
Metcalf has looked like a cheat code during camp. Everyone fell in love with the vision of this massive man with unmatched speed, power, and leaping ability being able to dominate anyone he went up against. There were flashes, like the playoff game against the Eagles, but the consistency was not there.
He looks like a guy who could get 150+ targets in Grubb’s offense and crush all who oppose him. Many were hoping he would become a bigger focal point with the new offense. Few expected him to become a more dominant player as well.
Metcalf is being used all over the field, catching passes at all depths and directions, and is finally looking ready to make contested catches with regularity. He has arguably looked like the best player on the team, and that simply was never the case in his prior seasons.
Kenneth Walker III
Walker has had a productive first two seasons in Seattle. He has been the unquestioned starter in the backfield and has had a number of explosive plays. Still, his yards per carry dropped last season from 4.6 as a rookie to 4.1, and his big plays receded as well.
This is the time of year when players talk about being in the best shape of their lives. Running backs, in particular, are challenging to assess during practices where contact is limited and when they do not play in the games.
Walker looks primed for his biggest season to-date. He is physically stronger and more explosive than he has ever been. His knees are a cartoonish blur as he runs by defenders. But it is Grubb’s vision of how to use him that puts him at the high end of his variance.
Grubb wants to unleash Walker as a receiver, and he wants him available on 3rd downs. That meant Walker needed to improve as a pass blocker. Seattle managed to hire Kennedy Polamalu as running backs coach, and he is uniquely qualified to tutor Walker on pass protection.
That has unlocked Walker in the role that Grubb wants for him, and will increase his utilization considerably. That will not only make Walker more productive, but make the Seahawks a more dangerous and effective 3rd down offense. It also gives Geno Smith a powerful check-down security blanket that will make him less likely to force the ball downfield and make it more difficult for defenses to cover all the weapons Seattle possesses.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
JSN had a fine rookie season, albeit below the lofty expectations the preceded his entry into the league. Shane Waldron oddly decided a terrific slot receiver should be used primarily on screens. Smith-Njigba, to his credit, became a decent threat on those plays, but it never seemed to play to his already considerable strengths over the middle of the field.
Enter Grubb. Smith-Njigba has been the Mayor of the Middle during training camp. He has carved up the secondary, and that continued in Tennessee.
Smith mentioned that Smith-Njigba called him during the offseason and wanted to train together. They threw all offseason, and the connection between the two now seems to go much further than what appeared tentative at times last year.
Grubb has JSN looking like JSN. This was the player who was considered better than Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson when they were teammates in college. Just adding that level of receiver to this offense would have raised the ceiling for what was possible. Adding that to what is looking like a series of offensive players stepping forward in an offensive scheme that is more dangerous and a play caller who is more crafty and daring, has this unit looking extraorbital.
Tyrice Knight
There was a collective groan among most Seahawks fans when Knight’s name was called in the fourth round of this year’s draft. It was known that Seattle had depth issues at inside linebacker and the draft was thin at that position.
John Schneider somewhat distanced himself from the pick by making it clear Macdonald wanted this guy. Macdonald tempered expectations by saying Knight would be asked to learn things he had not done in college. Knight was not highly recruited and was a very rare UTEP draft pick. All signs pointed to a developmental player who would hopefully contribute on special teams as a rookie.
Fast forward to today and Knight has been one of the most pleasant surprises of camp. He has moved ahead of Jon Rhattigan and Patrick O’Connell, who had been starters during OTAs, and has been taking starting reps while Jerome Baker has been sidelined with an injury.
Macdonald is still tempering expectations, but this time it is because Knight is playing well enough that he wants to keep the youngster grounded and focused. Knight received a sparkling 89 grade from Pro Football Focus in his first preseason game, and showed some talent in coverage.
He looks like a player who can contribute this year on defense should the need arise, and could be a multi-year starter in the future.
Connor Williams
Seattle had no business adding a Pro Bowl quality center to their roster after neglecting the position for years. They went into camp with Olu Oluwatimi penciled in as the starter and Nick Harris as the backup.
One of the few players who has performed closer to the lower end of variance has been Oluwatimi, who did not add the requisite strength to hold up in the middle of the line. But the stars continued to align for Seattle as Williams made a miraculous recovery from a December ACL injury and became available when the Seahawks were one of the few suitors.
He has not yet practiced with the team. Even having him on the roster, though, is toward the high end of variance for possible outcomes at this position. In fact, one could argue his presence resets the range of possible performance for this position. There was very little reason to think Oluwatimi or Harris would be Pro Bowl level players. Williams would just need to perform at prior levels to achieve that status.
The sum may be greater than the parts
There are more names that could be added to this list. The coaching staff, Grubb especially, had a wide range of possible outcomes and all of them appear to be toward the top end of the spectrum. Smith has been excellent in camp. Devon Witherspoon is playing well. The safety room looks strong and flexible.
It takes more than talent and coaching to go from mediocre to great in the NFL. It takes a lot of good fortune and positive variance. Mike Holmgren used to always say that to have your best seasons, you need your best players to play their best. With two weeks left in the preseason, Seattle appears to have a plethora of young talent poised to have career years or burst onto the scene as rookies.
None of this counts yet. It all still matters. This is looking increasingly like the version of the multiverse Seahawks fans will want inhabit for years to come.