After a three-year hiatus, the HB NFL Power Rankings are back. These rankings have been a helpful aid in identifying teams more subjective rankings tend or over or under rate.
The formula is pretty simple, and heavily weights basic things like point differential. Unlike some of the other rankings you will see, these will include strength of schedule (SOS) from the very beginning. Still, small sample sizes will inflate the outcome of the game more than SOS can mitigate. New Orleans played an awful Panthers team, but blew them out by such a large margin that the rankings are not going to be able to compensate.
It does, though, have some impact. For example, Seattle drops from 6th to 8th in the rankings when SOS is factored in. SOS itself will gain efficacy as the season goes on, which is why most rankings do not use it this early.
Most subjective power rankings have the Seahawks in the 20s. The 33rd Team had them moving down four spots to 24th after their win in week one. As strongly as I disagree with those perspectives, it is helpful to take opinion out of the equation and just let the numbers sort things out.
One change I made this year is swapping out Yards Per Carry as the run metric with Rush EPA. I have never been thrilled with YPC as it can be misleading. It may take a little time for me to find the right weighting for Rush EPA, but I am satisfied with this initial approach.
These rankings tend to be worth paying attention after week three. For now, just enjoy the view from near the top.
Rankings Visualization
This view shows tiers of strength that develop over the course of the season.
RANKINGS EXPLAINED
Power rankings are always debatable. I don’t buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula many years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. The formula to calculate “Team Strength” was as follows:
(Rush EPA (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) – (Rush EPA (defense) + Opponent Passer Rating (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed) x SOS
There are weightings applied to the factors that put a heavier emphasis on passing than running.
The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success (roughly 70% of the teams ranked in the Top 10 by week 3 make the playoffs), but I am always looking for ways to improve it.