The surprising New Orleans Saints retain their top spot in the rankings after a second dominant victory in week two. The Bills have had a more impressive strength of schedule, especially after the way the Cardinals played against the Rams, and have climbed into the second spot.

Minnesota and Tampa Bay are among the additional surprises, along with the Chargers and the Steelers. Arizona makes the biggest climb this week, all the way into the top ten. They are a bit inflated because the strength of schedule calculation assigned a higher value to the Rams since it has no information about all their injuries.

The Seahawks fall to 10th, which feels appropriate given one of the weakest strengths of schedule so far. The Chargers have an even weaker SOS, but their victories have been more dominant, leading to a greater point differential.

The 49ers are down at 16th, and that’s with a boost from SOS. Part of their problem is a negative passer rating differential (96.3 vs 101.4) and ranking 21st in Opponent Rush EPA. The Lions are also unexpectedly low given their talent. A 70.6 passer rating on offense is leading to a -16.2 passer rating differential. That is something to watch given the Seahawks face them in a week and currently have allowed the 4th-lowest passer rating.

Miami is the Seahawks opponent this week, and while the attention will be on the loss of their quarterback, the team has been pretty disappointing even when he was in the game. They are averaging just 15.0 points per game, with a 77.9 passer rating on offense, while allowing a 102.2 passer rating on defense.

It is still very early. These rankings tend to be worth paying attention after week three.

Rankings Visualization

This view shows tiers of strength that develop over the course of the season.

RANKINGS EXPLAINED

Power rankings are always debatable. I don’t buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula many years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. The formula to calculate “Team Strength” was as follows:

(Rush EPA (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) – (Rush EPA (defense) + Opponent Passer Rating (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed) x SOS

There are weightings applied to the factors that put a heavier emphasis on passing than running.

The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success (roughly 70% of the teams ranked in the Top 10 by week 3 make the playoffs), but I am always looking for ways to improve it.