Mike Macdonald begins his tenure as the new Seahawks head coach. That will be the headline for this game in many ways. Like Pete Carroll, Macdonald gets to start with a home opener. Unlike Carroll, Macdonald opens as a sizable favorite to win. The 2010 Seahawks opened as 3-point home underdogs to the San Francisco 49ers. Matt Hasselbeck would run for one touchdown and throw for two more while Marcus Trufant returned an Alex Smith interception 32 yards for a score in a blowout 31-6 victory.
Macdonald’s team opens as 6-point favorites over rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Broncos. Seattle has not been that large of a home favorite in a season opener since facing the Bengals in 2019. They would win that game by a single point. Seattle is 5-0 in their last season home openers when favored by six points or more.
This will be the first time a rookie quarterback has made his first start in Seattle since 1989 when Billy Joe Tolliver got his chance for the Chargers. He would go 6-17 for 41 yards and an interception in a 10-7 loss to the Seahawks.
Nix will not only be getting his first NFL action, but will be facing one of the toughest schemes to contend with as a quarterback and best defensive play caller. There may be some solace in getting to face Seattle early before the defense has mastered this new scheme.
Sean Payton will draw from his extensive offensive background to give Nix as soft of a landing as possible. That will mean leaning on a solid run blocking offensive line and run game, as well as sprinkling in quick passes and utilizing Nix’s legs. Nix was one of the hardest quarterbacks to sack or intercept in college.
He is accurate and smart, and is accustomed to shorter depth of target passing games. He has limited weapons, and some question marks in pass protection on the offensive line.
It is the Seahawks offensive line, though, that comes into focus in this game. The Broncos feature an array of pass rushers inside and out. They were vulnerable against the run last season, but added some heft inside. Seattle has enough of a talent and home field advantage that they should be heavy favorites. The Seattle offensive line could make this game much closer than Seahawks fans would want if they struggle to create push in the run game and/or fail to give Geno Smith acceptable pass protection.
Charles Cross has looked improved at left tackle, possibly ready to realize the promise of a top ten pick. George Fant should be an upgrade over the sad rotation of players who started at right tackle last year. Will late addition, Connor Williams, start and play to his standards at center?
Seattle was a top ten offense, by EPA per play, a season ago even with one of the worst offensive lines in football. It is not hard to imagine this offense vaulting into the top echelon of the league with competent line play.
This game represents a solid initial test with a blitz-happy defense featuring a ensemble cast of pass rushers. Baron Browning, in particular, can flash elite pass rushing skills.
Keep an eye on the run game for both teams. Most of the attention will be on Nix getting his first start as a passer and Macdonald bringing his intricate pressure packages to Seattle. Denver, though, features a good run-blocking line and some explosive runners. The Seahawks have struggled against the run the past few years and Uchenna Nwosu seems likely to miss the game as a key run defender.
The Broncos were one of the worst run defenses in football a year ago, and Ken Walker III seems poised for a special season.
A Denver team that is able to run the ball will keep this game competitive throughout. A Seattle team that runs effectively could turn this into a rout, and force Nix to make uncomfortable throws.
It is hard to come up with a credible scenario that results in a Broncos victory. Seattle has clear advantages in many places and will be at home. This feels closer to being one of those rare wide margin victories than a close fight. Look for Macdonald to get off to a solid debut.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
Note: All rankings are from 2023, as we have no 2024 numbers to work with yet.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HAWKS. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while.
You can see the biggest Denver advantage is in the run game on offense. Seattle has a sizable advantage in the passing game, and on offense in general. Also, notice the Broncos were the worst team in the NFL at defending WR2 on opposing teams, as well as defending tight ends.
Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense
Broncos key advantages on defense
Zach Allen had 60 pressures last season and is a solid all-around defensive end. D.J. Jones is the former 49er who used to knock Joey Hunt on his tail. John Franklin-Myers is one of the best under-the-radar additions in the NFL this offseason. He was a productive player on the great Jets defense who was in the shadow of more heralded players like Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner.
Those three could pose a problem for the still untested interior Seahawks line. The readiness of Williams at center looms large. Anthony Bradford barely held off rookie Christian Haynes, but has remained inconsistent as a pass protector.
The edge rushers are a solid group without any marquee names. Browning has big potential when he is on the field and he is in his contract year. Jonathon Cooper led the team in sacks last year with 8.5 and Nik Bonitto had 8.0 as a rotational rusher. Jonah Ellis is a rookie out of Utah who was among the most effective rushers in the NFL this preseason.
Tight end Pharaoh Brown may not be ready to play in this game, and that could create additional pressure on the line to make up for his loss as a blocker.
Patrick Surtain II has the reputation as a shutdown corner, but he was middling last year by both DVOA and PFF grades.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
This Broncos line struggled to stop the run. Vance Joseph blitzed 35% of the time last season, fifth-most in the league, but that led to vulnerabilities in surrendering explosive plays on the ground and in the air. In spite of that high blitz rate, the Broncos had the fourth-worst pressure rate. That is a bad combination.
This secondary has nobody that scares an offense beyond Surtain.
Second-year player Riley Moss moves from safety back to corner, the position he played in college. The player across from Surtain always gets tested. This game will be no difference. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, or DK Metcalf represent a mismatch against Moss.
The safety duo is not much better after they parted ways with Justin Simmons.
Cody Barton and Alex Singleton are far from an imposing linebacker duo inside.
Williams specializes in getting out on the edge as a pulling blocker for wide zone plays. The Broncos have very light edge players and light linebackers and corners. Look for Seattle to test the edges in the run game both with running backs and with Laviska Shenault Jr. on sprint motion.
Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Broncos key advantages on offense
The Broncos have to win on the ground. They have quality run-blockers upfront and a pair of quality running backs. Nix is also a willing runner. Any scenario where this game is close or the Broncos steal a win has to start with the running game. Seattle could not consistently stop opponents ground game last year or the year prior. Macdonald talks about his first priority in building a defense being “building a run wall.” We find out if that wall is build of brick or drywall right away.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Dre’Mont Jones has a chance to get some sweet revenge on his former team. Nobody outside the VMAC knows what to expect from Jones in this new defense because he has been out due to various injuries. He is now back and expected to play. Coaches have talked all offseason about the plan they have to use him all up and down the line of scrimmage.
Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson will be tested in the run game and in coverage early. Dodson has a chance to start off his career flashing his strength as a thumper in run defense.
Denver lost their quality center when Lloyd Cushenberry III left via free agency. Look for Byron Murphy and crew to make replacement Luke Wattenberg’s life miserable.
Macdonald rarely sends extra defenders via blitz. Baltimore blitzed only 22% of the time, which ranked 25th in the league. He does, however, send his four rushers from different positions. That means guys like Devon Witherspoon are sure to be coming off the edge while other guys drop into coverage. None of the Broncos running backs are good at pass protection.
Javonte Williams had a 27.8 pass block grade. Jaleel McLaughlin had a 34.6 pass block grade. Look for Macdonald to try and make them protect their rookie quarterback.
Riq Woolen very well could be the best cornerback in this game. He may be asked to cover Courtland Sutton, who is a solid route runner with excellent hands. If he is able to shut him down as he did with Calvin Ridley in Tennessee, the Broncos have precious few other receiving options.
When Witherspoon is not rushing the quarterback, he will be smothering either Josh Reynolds or Marvin Mims Jr. The Broncos will try to attack Tre Brown, but it is not clear they have the receiver or quarterback to succeed there.
Special Teams
Both of these teams have had dangerous return games. Dee Williams gets his first start as a punt returner. He may have some butterflies.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!