Brian Nemhauser·
Tale of the Tape
··9 min read

Tale of the Tape: Two Suspect OLs To Determine Outcome

Seahawks fans exited the week one victory over the Broncos with a sigh of relief and familiar gnawing in their stomachs about their team’s offensive line. Few fan bases understand the foundation importance of offensive line play more than those in Seattle. They have seen the way Walter Jones and Steven Hutchinson paved a path to their first Super Bowl appearance. They have also seen how weakness in that position group can waste the talents of great skill players.

Some say misery enjoys company. Seahawks fans, meet Patriots fans. Despite some awful moments in week one, Seattle’s offensive line was not ranked dead last in the NFL by Pro Football Focus (PFF). That dishonor belongs to the New England Patriots crew that had a left tackle receive a 0.0 pass block grade (6 pressures surrendered in 6 pass block snaps) before being benched, and a right guard receive a 17.4 pass block grade. The Patriots also averaged -0.1 rushing yards before contact, which was last in the NFL for Week 1.

The two teams had similar games in some respects. Both turned to the run game to put points on the board. Both saw their offensive lines struggle to pass protect. Both relied on excellent defensive performances.

Differences came in a few ways, most prominently from wildly different expectations about the teams entering the season. Patriots fans are braced for a long year as their journeyman quarterback starts some games before their rookie takes over. Seahawks fans believe a noisy playoff run is possible. New England beating a Bengals team with Joe Burrow on the road has their fans dreaming about a 2-0 or 3-0 start. Seattle struggling to put away a flawed Broncos team with Bo Nix at the helm has some fans wringing their hands.

If you look more closely, however, there are signs that the two teams were closer to preseason expectations than many realize. The Patriots benefitted from more turnover luck than any team in football against the Bengals. Cincinnati caught a touchdown pass that was rightly overturned and then fumbled on a 1-yard line on the next play. They also fumbled a punt.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, started their first three series with a sack or a penalty, threw an interception on their second play, had two possessions start at their 1-yard line, gave up two safeties, fumbled a punt, had a touchdown called back for a WR holding call away from the play, and still scored 26 points.

New England has a legitimately excellent defense, with playmakers at all three levels and a toughness that still echoes the persona of their former coach. They finished 9th in defensive DVOA in 2023 despite an atrocious offense that left them on the field for long stretches. They are missing one of their best players in Christian Barmore, but second-year defensive lineman Keion White is looking like a game-wrecker.

White can play anywhere on the line at 290 lbs, and destroyed the Bengals with 2.5 sacks. Wherever New England senses weakness, they will deploy White to exploit it.

The secondary features a collection of quality cornerbacks, including second year player Christian Gonzalez. Their linebackers are rangy and physical. The group combined to allow the fewest explosive plays in the league in the first week.

Seattle may need to demonstrate patience on offense and confidence in their top-ranked DVOA defense. The Patriots barely beat the Bengals even with a number of turnovers. Their offense is highly reliant on the running game and bulldozer running back Rhamondre Stevenson. It is okay for the Seahawks offense to punt the ball. It is not okay for them to turn the ball over.

It would help Seattle if former Patriots tight end Pharaoh Brown was ready to make his debut to contribute in run and pass blocking. Tight ends would seem to have a large role to play in this game, both at the line of scrimmage and as fullbacks.

The first team to 20 points wins this one, and the Seahawks have far more paths to that point total than the Patriots. It is not out of the question that half that number will be enough to win this game. New England scored under 10 points six times last season and only scored more than 20 points four times. Their offense is only marginally better, if at all.

They will face a Seahawks defense that looked like a buzzsaw against the Broncos. New England saw nothing like this when they went up against the Bengals. Seattle gave up 20 points to a bad Broncos offense, but four of those points came on safeties, and six more came on field goals after turnovers in the red zone in which the defense gave up zero first downs.

This is a sneaky tough matchup for Seattle. It is never a sure bet when you face an excellent defense on the road with a struggling offensive line. The talent gap between these two teams is significant, though, and there are simply more paths to victory for Seattle. Bringing their hard hats in run defense could make this a less tense victory, as could repeating their own success in the run game. Look for the Seahawks to escape with a narrow victory here.

The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories. 

DVOA

New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HAWKS. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while.

DVOA heavily weights success rate in its formula, and Seattle did well in that statistic against the Broncos while the Patriots had more mixed results. The Patriots ran the ball 39 times and passed just 24, and their rushing success rate ranked 23rd in the NFL, so that pulled down their offense.

More importantly, they had a weaker run defense than the superficial numbers would indicate. Ranking 29th in run defense DVOA and 21st in run defense grade from PFF. Seattle is sure to test that more than the Bengals did.

Seattle having a 7th-ranked offense is surprising, but remember that they scored 26 points despite all the turmoil.

Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense

Patriots key advantages on defense

Geno Smith was under pressure on 39.3% of his dropbacks in week one, 9th-most in the NFL. White is going to do his best to torment the Seattle quarterback all game long. Josh Uche is a speed edge rusher who could be facing Stone Forsythe. Look for Ryan Grubb to give Forsythe more help with a tight end or chipping in this game.

The cornerback trio of Gonzalez and Jonathan Jones outside, with Marcus Jones inside, is very good. Jonathan Jones had a 87.3 coverage grade in week one, and Marcus Jones had a 78.9 coverage grade. Gonzalez traveled with Ja’Marr Chase with more mixed results. Chase caught all six of his targets, but also looked like he was not super sharp or motivated after holding in all offseason while looking for a new deal.

Jahlani Tavai is a super physical linebacker who can cover a lot of ground. Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers are quality safeties.

Collectively, they do not give up explosive plays.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

There are signs in DVOA and in rush EPA and in PFF rush defense grades that the Patriots are more vulnerable there than most might realize. Davon Godchaux is an excellent run stuffer on the inside.

The Bengals ran inside zone on 38% of their run plays, per FTN and power on 25%. They were successful on 100% of their power runs. Power runs involve pulling blockers and kick out blocks by tight ends. Seattle did that on 9% of their run plays against Denver, with inside zone being the largest percentage (27%). In other words, Seattle would appear well equipped to attack what the Patriots struggled with against Cincy.

D.K. Metcalf should be in line for a bigger game as Gonzalez is not the same player Patrick Surtain II is at corner.

Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Patriots key advantages on offense

Stevenson is a bull. The flip side of the offensive lines poor performance in creating space for him is that he had nearly all of his 120 yards after contact. Seattle did an excellent job of team tackling against the Broncos, but did miss a fair amount of tackles. Mike Macdonald acknowledged this, saying that the tackling looked a bit better because everyone was rallying to the ball so missed tackles were not as damaging.

They will need to have a similar team tackling approach in this game. The Patriots run right at you with 43.6% of their runs coming on inside zone. Stevenson is not a big wiggle guy. He wants to bulldoze his way straight ahead.

Jacoby Brissett will use his legs at time as well, rushing for 32 yards on seven carries in week one.

Like Seattle, it was not all bad on the Patriots offensive line. Mike Onwenu played a great game at right tackle, at least from a pass blocking perspective, as did center David Andrews. It is unclear whether Andrews really had much of a test against a Cincy interior defensive line that lacks playmakers.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The Seahawks have advantages all over the field. The wide receiver corps is among the worst in the NFL and the Seahawks secondary may be the best. Macdonald’s scheme and play calling is light years ahead of what the Patriots offense faced last week.

Brissett is more seasoned and should be able to have more success than Nix did, but not much more.

Remember how Smith was the 9th-most pressured QB in week one? Brissett was the first. He was pressured on 44.8% of his dropbacks. Worse news for him is that the second-most pressured quarterback was Nix at 43.1%. Seattle did not even seem to have a great day rushing the passer against a pretty good Broncos line.

Garrett Bolles is a Pro Bowl quality left tackle, and surrendered his highest pressure rate 13.5% in two years. The Patriots might have the worst left tackle situation in the NFL.

The only disadvantage for the Seahawks is they won’t be wearing their throwbacks.

Special Teams

Dee Williams had a terrible first game. He now goes on the road. It is crucial that he regains his confidence as the team cannot afford another special teams snafu.

Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!