The Seahawks just announced that they will be without Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe for this big NFC clash in Detroit. Finding out that much on the defensive line will be missing for this game sent many Seahawks fans into a panic or chalking this game up as a loss. That energy is misplaced, and possibly misguided. There is no doubt the Seahawks could drop this game. They are 3.5 point underdogs (before the injury news was released) going on the road to face an NFC title contender in prime time. Any team could lose that game. There are a few reasons why the Seahawks chances to win are roughly the same after the injury report as they were before.
Mafe only new news
It was reported earlier this week that Murphy was going to miss some time. Williams has not practiced all week. Nwosu practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday, but not at all after. If anyone was expecting them to play before the report ruled them out today, they were not paying much attention.
The only really “new” news was that Mafe was ruled out. There had been some hope that they were resting him and were going to play him anyway. That turned out to not be the case, so the focus really becomes how much Mafe would have changed the probability of a win.
Straight edge rush not crucial in this game
Mafe is a terrific player, who is looking ready to become a star in this league. Losing him is absolutely a blow for Seattle. Nobody would argue the team is better off without him on the field. The conversation is more about just how critical he was to the Seahawks chances to win this particular game.
The Lions feature one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL. Penei Sewell may be the best right tackle in the game. Taylor Decker is a terrific pass protector. Even the best edge rushers are rarely disruptive against them.
Building a defensive game plan that was reliant on your edge rushers beating those two players with any regularity would be foolish. Mike Macdonald is not foolish.
Thirteen different players have at least one pressure for the Seahawks this season. They are #1 in the NFL this season in pressure rate while being 25th in blitz rate, per Pro-Football-Reference. They almost always send four players, but it is rarely the same four players.
Mafe has dropped into coverage more than any other edge player for the Seahawks (18 snaps). Devon Witherspoon, Jerome Baker (who may play), Tyrel Dodson and Rayshawn Jenkins are all threats to be sent from their positions.
If you look at the four interceptions Jared Goff has thrown already this season, a number of them are due to his being fooled by zone pressures that have defensive linemen or others dropping into coverage zones he was not anticipating. Nobody schemes those types of plays up better than Macdonald.
This game was always going to be about whether Macdonald could fool Goff into costly mistakes. It was never going to be about whether Mafe could simply beat Sewell or Decker off the edge. Those creative pressure patterns all remain on the menu even if Derick Hall or Tyus Bowser or even Mike Morris are getting more edge snaps.
Seattle secondary is elite and will finally get a chance to make plays
Goff has not faced a secondary anywhere close to the caliber of this Seahawks crew so far this season, and has already been careless with the football. Riq Woolen and Tre Brown both have pick sixes against Goff in Detroit over the past two seasons.
Witherspoon is getting his first shot to play in Ford Field as a veteran after having some understandable first game growing pains the last time they played.
Julian Love and Rashawn Jenkins ranks #1 and #8 among all safeties in football in PFF grades, and have been excellent in all aspects of the the game.
Maybe Goff does have more time in this one. He still has to complete a pass to his receivers. Woolen and Witherspoon are dying to be tested more than they have been to this point.
Woolen has only been targeted 11 times in three games, and all have been short passes. Opposing receivers are averaging 7.8 yards per reception. Witherspoon has been targeted 15 times and is allowing 7.1 yards per reception.
Goff testing those guys very well could be a good thing for Seattle.
Seahawks edge players are still better than other Lions opponents
Seattle will likely elevate Bowser for a second straight week, and he has great familiarity with Macdonald’s system. He is a vet, and provides a decent pass rush himself. He exited his first Seahawks game with a nice 72.0 grade from PFF.
Jones and Hall are both quality edge players, and Trevis Gipson has done a decent job when he has had chances to get on the field. Morris has largely been asked to play inside, but he can play all the way out to the edge and could allow Seattle to go heavy upfront to really try and limit the run game for Detroit.
Compare that group of five players to edge players the Lions have faced so far this season:
Arizona Cardinals
- Zaven Collins
- L.J. Collier
- Dennis Gardeck
- Xavier Thomas
Tampa Bay Bucs
- Yaya Diaby
- Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
- Anthony Nelson
- Chris Braswell
Los Angeles Rams
- Jared Verse
- Byron Young
- Michael Hoecht
The Rams group isn’t awful. Maybe you like Verse. Hall has one less pressure than Verse and a higher pass rush grade (70.6 vs 63.2). Also consider that was the game where the Lions had the most points (26). The Cardinals edge rush group is maybe the worst in football, and they shut out the Lions in the second half.
Each one of these teams are worse on defense overall than the Seahawks and still gave the Detroit offense problems. The Lions have scored more than 20 points just once.
The fundamentals of this game have not changed
This game was always going to come down to three primary things:
- Can the Seahawks keep the Lions run game from being dominant?
- Can the Lions keep the Seahawks pass game from being dominant?
- Can Macdonald frustrate and fool Goff into costly errors?
Mafe was not central to any of those questions. He certainly would have helped, but the difference in Seattle’s ability to get positive answers with Hall, Jones and Bowser getting more snaps may be more negligible than most fans realize.
It would not even surprise me to see Macdonald employ more bear fronts to help limit the run game. Look for an extra nose tackle to be elevated on Monday. Johnathan Hankins is more crucial in this game than Mafe. That will not often be true, but it is for this matchup. Jarran Reed is as well.
The odds that someone like Witherspoon would exit this game with more sacks than Mafe was always high. It is now nearly certain. This game may hinge on Witherspoon’s ability to limit Amon-Ra St. Brown as a receiver while also disrupting Goff as a pass rusher and supporting against the run. He has a chance to have a very special game, which would not be the first time for him to do so on Monday Night Football.