The Seahawks are hurdling toward a game against the AFC powerhouse Buffalo Bills on Sunday with some variables at play that could have significant impacts on the outcome. It starts with the injury situation for both teams.
Bills lose key linebacker
Buffalo announced three players that get regular snaps will miss the game on Sunday. The players are: starting linebacker Terrel Bernard, receiver Curtis Samuel, and defensive tackle DeWayne Carter.
Bernard is a big one. He has been one of their primary playmakers. He is second on the team in run stop win rate (40.5%), second in tackles per game (6.4), and third in tackles for loss (3). The Bills said goodbye to former star linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and The Athletic expected him to be the “Non-QB MVP” of the Bills.
His absence leaves Buffalo playing backup Baylon Spector at the position, a 7th round pick in 2022, who has a 38.8 PFF grade so far this season. He has especially been bad in run defense, where he received scores of 29.2 and 45.1 in his two starts when Bernard was injured earlier this year.
Of the 92 linebackers with at least 100 snaps, Spector ranks 90th.
Going from your best playmaker to one of the worst players at the position is hard to cover up. It may not be a coincidence that the Bills had their worst defensive performance of the season when Spector had to start in Baltimore.
Samuel had been the third receiver on the Bills, at least by targets, before the Amari Cooper acquisition. His absence may not be a big deal, but there are some plays that are designed for a player of Samuel’s abilities that might be less likely to be called without him. The Bills still have Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Cooper, so their receiver room should be fine.
Carter was a rotational defensive tackle who started a couple of games when Ed Oliver was injured. His absence could force Buffalo to play their starters more snaps, which could wear them down later in the game. Alternatively, they could turn to Austin Johnson, who has not been clearly worse than Carter in his snaps.
Metcalf may play, secondary nearly full strength
Seattle listed D.K. Metcalf as doubtful for the game on Sunday with his MCL sprain. Many assumed that meant he was certain to miss the game. That is not how I see it.
The team could have easily listed Metcalf as out, as they have done for plenty of other players. They did not. Throw in reports from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that Metcalf may play this week, and a comment earlier in the week by Macdonald that Metcalf does not need to practice in order to play, and you start to see the injury designation as a continuation of a plan to keep the door open for the Seahawks offensive star.
Macdonald was asked during the Friday press conference whether Metcalf would be back next week, and he corrected the reporter by saying that he had not been ruled out for this game. I asked the coach whether the rain forecast would factor into the decision to play Metcalf or hold him out, and he said it would not be a factor.
It seems like they will have Metcalf go all the way to warm-ups and see how his knee feels. The receiver tested the knee during the Falcons game and was honest about not being able to play. He will have a large say in whether he can suit up in this one.
The surprise on the report was cornerback Tre Brown being listed as questionable. Macdonald has said earlier in the week that Brown would not practice, and seemed to indicate he would not be back this week. Instead, the Seahawks starter is “trending positively,” and Macdonald sounded like he expected him to play.
That, with the return of fellow starter Riq Woolen, would give the Seahawks four of their five starting secondary members one week after they played with only two of the five. Woolen is especially important in this game as his ability to match up with Cooper allows Witherspoon to cover Shakir and either Brown or the third corner to take on rookie Coleman.
This will also be the first time since Week 2 that the Seahawks defense will have Woolen, Byron Murphy, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, and Leonard Williams all available. That quintet has not started and finished a game together since Week 1.
If nothing else, Seahawks fans will get a little better chance to assess this defense against a quality opponent with their best players on the field.
Rain and wind in the forecast
The current forecast for Sunday is 100% chance of rain, with roughly a 50% chance of rain during the game. Winds of 15 mph, with gusts up to 22 mph are also expected. That could have a massive impact on two teams that rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards (Seattle), and 2nd in the NFL in passing offense DVOA (Buffalo).
Most people assume Josh Allen, the Buffalo quarterback who played at Wyoming in college, would be impervious to playing in bad weather. Searching the web led to a number of articles and Reddit threads from Bills fans bemoaning Allen’s struggles in rainy weather. It is not easy to find weather splits for players. Thankfully, I have a handy dandy subscription to FTN StatsHub, the best football insights engine on the web (you can get 15% off a subscription if you use promo code: HBAM. it’s less than $8/mo). Here is what I found.
This compared games when Allen played outside and the weather was clear and games played outside when it rained. Dome games were excluded. The difference calculations for passing touchdowns and interceptions were done at a per-game level, as opposed to the total number. Touchdown percentage and interception percentage are calculated based on total attempts.
It is no surprise that a quarterback’s passing numbers are impacted by rain. We can see that Allen attempts and completes fewer passes, but not by the same amount. His accuracy decreases and his overall passing yards per game drops as well by 43 yards per game.
His touchdowns per game drops by 30%, but his interceptions per game improves slightly even if his interceptions per attempt ticks higher.
These splits are actually less severe due to a very good performance in 2021. If you narrow to the last two seasons, Allen has thrown 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions when playing in the rain, and his passing yards per game drops to 207.8.
Allen, however, is not the only quarterback playing in this game. Smith has a smaller recent history to draw from, and has played in only three games when it rained since he came to Seattle, which may surprise folks outside the Pacific Northwest. His numbers, like Allen’s, decline.
Smith has roughly the same impact to his accuracy as Allen. He does, though, start as a more accurate passer. His drop is yards per attempt is less, and a lot less if comparing to Allen from the last two seasons. Smith throws roughly the same amount of touchdowns, but Allen starts from a higher point. One way to see that is the rain equalizes the touchdowns between these two.
Interceptions jump more for Smith, but again, he starts from a lower point. He still has a lower interception rate in the rain than Allen does in clear weather.
This is far from scientific, but based on the numbers available, Allen seems more impacted by the rain than Smith. Layering the wind on top of the rain could mean a really rough day for both passing attacks.
Coverage trends
Both teams have some interesting coverage tendencies that could factor into this game. Buffalo receivers, for example, have caught all of their touchdowns against man coverage. Ten of Allen’s 12 touchdown passes overall have come against man coverage.
Man coverage also allows quarterbacks like Allen the chance to scramble more. It would seem obvious that you should stick with zone coverage options against the Bills. I asked Macdonald about that earlier this week.
“Well, you want to be positive to the receivers and his numbers against true zone are pretty dang good, too, so it’s like pick your poison,” Macdonald said. “At some point you have to populate the box to stop the run. There’s lots of reasons why you want to be in man coverage. It’s tough, if you are in man and you’re already on your guy when it turns into a plastered situation when you’re in zone, it’s tougher to do, there’s a lot more space and there’s things going on situationally as well, stress points of the passing game and where you’re trying to put that on any given play if you’re trying to change up looks. Wasn’t aware all the [receiver] touchdowns came [against man] — it’s interesting. I think you’ve got to kind of live in your wheelhouse which at some point we’re going to play man-to-man.”
The Seahawks worked on defending Allen this week with the help of backup QBs Jaren Hall and Sam Howell. Macdonald talked about that prep and the challenge of extending your coverage during a scramble situation.
“Well, first I give credit to Sam (Howell) and Jaren (Hall),” Macdonald said. “They did a great job extending plays and making us work on defense as well. Our receivers have run a lot more this week than most weeks. I think you have to rush as one, you can’t take the liberties that sometimes you might be able to take versus another quarterback. And then I would just say eye discipline down the field as plays extend, connecting to receivers when you’re in the zone, when you’re in man, staying with the guy, understanding how you relate to the receiver and the quarterback. So all the extended play rules really come into play and it really matters in order to have a successful play. And again, you could bat .900 in a game like this and that’s not good enough. You have got to do it every time.”
Seattle is not a heavy man team. They rank 14th in the NFL in man coverage rate, per FTN. It is still something they do over half the time. When Seattle chooses to play man versus zone will be an interesting chess match, especially while inserting a new linebacker into the middle of the defense (Earnest Jones IV) and sliding Tyrel Dodson to a new linebacker spot.
Buffalo has some coverage decisions to make as well. The Bills are one of the heavier Cover 2 teams in the NFL. Cover 2 defenses keep two safeties back to limit deep passes, but it also tends to make a team more susceptible to rushing attacks.
All six of Kenneth Walker’s rushing touchdowns this season have come against Cover 2 defenses. The Bills are also 31st in the NFL in DVOA when defending running backs as receivers out of the backfield.
Most football teams do not want to change who they are for any opponent. Facing Walker without their best run-stopping linebacker and in a game where the weather may force more rushing attempts could test their will.
Seattle has not asserted themselves on the ground consistently since the second half of the Week 1 game against the Broncos. Connor Williams seemed to be gaining confidence in Atlanta, and could be seen motioning to the sideline to keep running the ball at one point.
Given the Bills strong pass rushers outside and inside, it would make a lot of sense for Ryan Grubb to try and win this game on the ground.