There is no bigger rival for the Seahawks than than the 49ers. Seattle rose to greatness at a time when Jim Harbaugh and San Francisco were established as the roughest, toughest, team in the NFL. Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman and crew, represented a test of your manhood as much as your football skills. Pete Carroll and the Seahawks changed the course of the division and the NFL when they embarrassed the 49ers on national TV 42-13 in 2012. Seattle beat them in the NFC Championship the next year on the way to their first Super Bowl trophy.
The Seahawks would go on to win 12 of the next 13 against the 49ers, including 10 straight, and 17 of 20 until 2021. San Francisco has won each of the five matchups since. The closest of those losses was by 8 points (21-13). The rest have not been competitive.
George Kittle bragged about how they were able to just run the same play repeatedly against the Seahawks to close them out in one game. The Niners got revenge eating turkey on Lumen Field after dominating Seattle on Thanksgiving.
Geno Smith has yet to beat the 49ers. His best performance came in the playoffs when he had Seattle in front through three quarters but unraveled with a fumble and interception to turn it into a blowout.
The stakes are as high as they get for an early season game. San Francisco has lost three games already, including both divisional games. A loss would leave them two games back in the division, without any tiebreakers, and staring a trip to Kansas City in the face. Seattle has lost two straight and 0-2 in the NFC. A loss would drop them out of first place, with a home loss against the Niners, and games coming up at Atlanta and home against Buffalo.
Whichever team loses this game could well see their season unravel.
With that as the backdrop, the oddsmakers see the 49ers as the better team and the favorite. Despite the record, that makes sense if you look at how strong their offense has been and how porous the Seahawks defense has become.
Injuries are also a major factor. The Seahawks are likely to be missing Byron Murphy and Riq Woolen, and possibly Derick Hall. Uchenna Nwosu will be placed on IR, and Abe Lucas and George Fant remain out. San Francisco is missing Christian McCaffrey, Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw, and kicker Jake Moody. They also lost Javon Hargrave for the season.
Schedule will also play a role. Seattle will be on short rest for the second straight game, finishing up three games in eleven days. The team has had a very light practice schedule to give players as much rest and recuperation time as possible. That also means less time to work on correcting flaws that have emerged during these two losses.
The 49ers defense is far from the intimidating crew it has been in past years. Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are still elite. The rest of the group is suspect. One of the only credible paths to victory for the Seahawks involves a healthy run attack. San Francisco has been uneven in stopping the run, and keeping Brock Purdy and the offense on the sideline would go along way toward giving Seattle a chance to win.
Mike Macdonald had a lot of success against Kyle Shanahan and his disciples last year. His Ravens defense held the Dolphins, Texans, and 49ers to some of their lowest totals of the season. He has not shown the ability to scheme around Seahawks injuries on defense so far this year. He is almost sure to change how they try to defend the run in this one, but anything he does there will put more strain on a secondary that will probably be missing its best corner.
Ironically, the Seahawks feel more ready to compete with the 49ers than they have been in years, but it is hard to predict a victory given the defensive performances in the last two games. Seattle will get the very best San Francisco has to offer in this one. We have not seen the Seahawks be able to win a game like that yet against a quality opponent. San Francisco has more paths to victory, but should Seattle find a way to pull this out, it may signal another turning of the tides in this bitter rivalry.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
As problematic as the Seahawks defense has been against the run, their plummeting DVOA ranks in defending WR1/2/3 is more concerning. A secondary that started off looking like the best in the NFL has fallen down to earth. San Francisco still boasts one of the most dangerous receiving corps in the game, and have a dynamic tight end as well. Macdonald will be tempted to put an extra man in the box to stop the bleeding against the run, but that could give Shanahan exactly what he wants in the passing game.
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
49ers key advantages on defense
Warner has looked like the best defensive player in the game for much of the year. Diving interceptions, forced fumbles at the goal line, speedy and violent tackles to stuff the run, Warner has done it all. He can wreck a game plan all by himself.
Bosa is in the conversation for best edge player in football. He is excellent rushing the passer or defending the run. He warrants attention the way Aidan Hutchinson did a few days back. Hutchinson did not have a sack, but he did have 15 pressures. Stone Forsythe has been exploited the last two games. Charles Cross has not been as strong as he was to start the year.
Seattle will need better play from their tackles, and possibly some help from tight ends to give Smith time when the team chooses to throw.
Deommodore Lenoir has had a great season as slot corner and also played outside against the Cardinals.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
The 49ers do not have great personnel to stop the run. They also have had some trouble in coverage. Charvarius Ward has had his worst season in San Francisco, and has admitted he is playing his worst football. Ji’Ayir Brown has struggled at safety, and rookie Malik Mustapha has as well. De’Vondre Campbell has been a major liability, especially in coverage.
Seattle has the weapons to make life difficult for San Francisco. This is arguably the best offense they will have faced. Bosa has already commented in the press that they see this as a “must win” game and that they expect Seattle to try and run the ball more in this one.
It may be tough sledding initially. The Cardinals running back James Conner had less than 10 yards in the first half before breaking out for close to 80 in the second half. Seattle would need to get some stops on defense if the offense truly commits to the run and it takes some time to find success. A solid start on the ground for Seattle could change the entire complexion of the game.
Smith knows his record against the 49ers. He knows the whispers about his ability to beat them. This would be a great moment for him to showcase his growth as a player and a leader. Even with a better run game, Seattle will not win without a terrific performance from Smith.
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers key advantages on offense
Shanahan prides himself on creating impossible decisions for the second level linebackers of opposing teams. He stresses them with motion and misdirection and a heavy dose of the running game. Macdonald acknowledged that the second level is where the Seahawks are having their biggest issues. Not great.
Brock Purdy has had an up-and-down season. In some ways, he is playing his best football, making his best throws, and being a larger reason the team is playing well on offense. In other ways, he is trying to do to much and scrambling into long developing plays and turnovers. His 3.15 second average time-to-throw is dead last in the NFL and the second-slowest in the NFL over the last five years behind only Justin Fields (3.23 last year).
Purdy will give rushers a chance to reach him for sacks, but he will also make corners cover for longer periods of time. A game without Woolen makes this a tall order for Seattle, especially given they will be without some of their best pass rushers.
Jauan Jennings gets less publicity than Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but he’s been a critical part of the offense for years. He makes tough catches and clutch catches.
Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle break tackles after the catch, and Seattle has struggled to tackle of late. The 49ers will test whether they have corrected their leveraging of the ball after the Lions exposed them.
Trent Williams is worth three linemen by himself. His dominance in the run game continues, and when combined with Kittle and Aiyuk, makes for a big challenge. Jordan Mason has run tough and breaks tons of tackles. He is a better version of the back who just ran over and around Seattle this weekend.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
Some will say the red zone is an advantage for Seattle. I don’t believe anyone should count on the 49ers struggles their to continue. Detroit was struggling before they went 5/5 against the Seahawks.
The real Seattle advantage could come in pass pressure. The Seahawks remain near the top of the league in pressure rate and sack rate. SF has had trouble protecting at times and Purdy has run into sacks and turnovers.
Seattle needs a disruptive pass rush in this game or it will be almost impossible to slow the 49ers down.
The only other possible advantage is that Macdonald is likely to change his approach on defense and call things differently than the way the 49ers have seen things on film. That could create some opportunities for early disruption before Shanahan and crew make adjustments.
Special Teams
Two of the worst special teams in football square off, and the Niners are missing their kicker. They signed a replacement who will get his first chance as a 49er in a high leverage game.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!