It would be hard for any game to live up to the light show put on by the Seahawks and the Detroit Lions. Daniel Jones and the New York Giants are among the least likely candidates to make for an entertaining matchup. The most notable things about Jones are his inflated contract and constant deer-in-headlights expression. It is hard to imagine any player or fan feels confident when he steps in the huddle.
New York, though, catches the Seahawks at an opportune time. They have had extra rest after playing a Thursday night game, while the Seahawks are not only coming off a short week due to Monday Night Football, but also had a long flight back from Detroit. Seattle is also deeply injured on defense, and we will not know if any of these players will be back this week. Finally, Seattle has to account for another short week game the following Thursday against division rival San Francisco. That will factor into decisions regarding injured players, and may even eat into game planning as coaches will likely work on both games either in unison or at least during the same week.
The Giants will need every edge they can get. This is not a good football team. They have two strengths:
- Malik Nabers, the rookie wide receiver
- Their defensive line pass rush
Nabers is coming off a concussion with some early reports that he is doing well. That is the type of matchup, though, that Riq Woolen could and should win. That leaves the formidable defensive line group of Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Lawrence may be the best defensive tackle in the game. He bullies pretty much every line he faces, and you may have heard the Seahawks have had some challenges on the interior of their offensive line.
Burns and Thibodeaux burn the edges while Lawrence crushes the middle. It is a good formula. It has not been enough to offset a pretty putrid offense that has scored more than 18 points just once when they scored 21 against the Browns. That game included a 30-yard touchdown drive created by the Giants defense forcing a turnover.
The challenge for the Giants is that they are facing one of the best quarterbacks in football, who is playing at an elite level. Geno Smith comes off a great matchup where he shredded a very good Lions defense for almost 400 yards. His best games this season have come against heavy man coverage teams.
New England and Detroit love man coverage. So do the Giants, who rank 9th in utilizing man coverage. New York likes to blitz as well, ranking 4th in the NFL in blitz rate (34.5%). Smith ranks 7th among QBs when blitzed.
Smith excels at finding a good matchup when opponents are in man coverage and just picking them apart with quick throws that negate all but the most immediate pass pressure. Lawrence is the kind of player who can create that immediate interior pressure and just wreck your day. Connor Williams will earn his paycheck in this one.
Ultimately, the Seahawks have the better team, the better quarterback, and home field advantage. Seattle will have to find a way to take care of business and try to have enough left in the tank to battle the 49ers a few days later.
The way this works: Each offense will be pitted against the opposing defense and compared on an array of key statistical attributes based on their respective rank in the NFL. The tables that follow show the rank of each unit for each of these categories.
DVOA
New this season, Tale of the Tape will feature DVOA data, courtesy of FTNFantasy.com. If you remember the great Football Outsiders site that used to publish DVOA rankings, you should know that data has moved to FTNFantasy. The table below shows how the two teams match up from a DVOA perspective. You can get 15% off an FTN subscription if you use promo code HBAM. It’s less than $8/mo and I’ve been a subscriber for a while. Be sure to get the FTN+ or greater sub to access StatsHub.
One interesting tidbit here is the Seahawks managed to do at least one good thing on defense against the Lions. They held the Lions formidable running back group to just one catch. That continues a trend where Seattle has defended the pass out of the backfield with the best of them. New York likes to utilize shifty Devin Singletary in space, so that could show up.
Seahawks Offense vs Giants Defense
Giants key advantages on defense
The defensive line has already been covered, so let’s talk about Andru Phillips. The slot corner has an 83.9 coverage grade so far this year and has been excellent overall. He will represent a tough matchup for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has become Smith’s go-to in quick passing situations. Phillips and Adoree Jackson, another good corner, both missed the game against the Cowboys with calf injuries. If one or both miss this one, it would be a big hit for the Giants.
Seahawks key advantages on offense
Kenneth Walker III has only played two games, but they have been magnificent. He leads the NFL in missed tackles forced per game (8.5), and leads the league in 20+ MPH rushes per game (1.0). The Seahawks offense is different when he is on the field, and they started to find some rushing success against a very stingy Lions run defense.
No team had run for more than 83 yards against the Lions. Seattle ran for 133. No running back had rushed for more than 50 yards against them. Walker ran for 80.
We already know Smith can mitigate some of the pass rush with his quick throws. Adding a more threatening run game will further the cause.
New York has a decent run defense, but did give up 133 yards to Brian Robinson Jr. and 215 yards rushing overall to the Commanders, with most of it coming from the running backs. Seattle’s three highest scoring games all included at least 100 yards on the ground.
Seattle should be able to take advantage of Deonte Banks at corner and a rookie safety in Tyler Nubin.
Giants Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Giants key advantages on offense
The Giants have a much improved offensive line. This is not the same group that gave up 11 sacks to Seattle last year. Andrew Thomas is a very good left tackle. Jermaine Eluemunor is a passable right tackle. Jon Runyan and Greg Van Roten are decent guards. That said, they still have surrendered more pressure than the beleaguered Seahawks line. That is due, in part, to Jones holding onto the ball or making bad pocket decisions.
Singletary enters the game second in the NFL behind Walker in missed tackles forced per game (6.3). Seattle will need to rally to the ball to contain him.
Wandale Robinson is a guy they target heavily and almost completely on underneath throws where he is asked to create yards after the catch. They almost use him as a running alternative.
Nabers is the star of the show. He is a good enough player to make Jones look decent at times. They will use him all over the field if he can play.
Seahawks key advantages on defense
This will be a challenging environment for the Giants to play. They are already a malfunctioning offense with a quarterback they do not trust. Seattle may be banged up and hold some guys out.
Still, the Seahawks corner room should be set for a bounce back game and have reason to hope they can break their three game streak of no takeaways.
Jones, coming off a serious injury last season, has not been the threat as a runner he was prior to the injury. Seattle should be able to get home with him holding the ball an average of 2.85 seconds before he throws.
Derick Hall now has 4.0 sacks and is becoming a force on the outside.
Special Teams
A quiet story of the season is the poor performance of Michael Dickson and the punt unit. Usually in the top five in net yards per punt, Dickson has been struggling to pin teams back.
Be sure to tune into Real Hawk Talk Wednesday night!