There are fewer quality offensive linemen in the NFL than ever, and the position group is degrading at a rapid rate. The problem is systemic and could have far-reaching impact on the sport, but some teams have done a better job of accumulating young talented offensive linemen while the majority of the league is wandering the desert looking for a drop of talent. Seahawks GM John Schneider has come under fire for the perpetual problematic state of the team’s offensive line. We will examine which teams have done the best through the draft, and see if there are any lessons that could be applied to Seattle.
Methodology
Schneider started as a GM in 2010. Data was pulled for every draft since 2010, except for the most recent 2024 draft since those rookie seasons are incomplete. It is hard to indicate quality with offensive linemen through statistics, so Pro Bowls were used as a proxy for finding a good offensive lineman in the draft. Trades or free agent signings involving veterans were not considered for this research. The sole focus was how many Pro Bowl offensive linemen did a team draft. Also, Pro Bowl alternates/replacements are not counted.
The highest hit rates
Six franchises had a hit rate of 20% or higher when drafting offensive linemen. That means that at least 1 out of every 5 linemen they drafted became a Pro Bowl player. Those franchise are:
- Detroit
- Dallas
- Baltimore
- New Orleans
- Kansas City
- Tampa Bay
Detroit and Dallas had a remarkable 33.3% hit rate on their picks. You can see below that they stand out from the rest.
It is also worth noting there is pretty gradual distribution across the league. Keep in mind, hit rate is relative to how many picks were spent on the position. We will look later at just how much draft capital was spent and the relative value of that capital. Hit rate more indicates how likely a team is to find a Pro Bowl level lineman when they decide to use a pick on one.
Four teams have a 0% hit rate:
- New York Giants
- Las Vegas Raiders (including Oakland years)
- New York Jets
- Jacksonville Jaguars
It should come as no surprise that those teams are also among the worst in the NFL over this span. Here are their win percentages since 2010 and where that ranks:
- New York Giants .421 (27th)
- Las Vegas Raiders .419 (28th)
- New York Jets .388 (30th)
- Jacksonville Jaguars .322 (32nd)
Remarkably, the Seahawks and Patriots have the next two lowest hit rates on offensive linemen and still managed to be the 1st (NE) and 6th (SEA) best franchises in win percentage over this time.
Seattle has just a 5.3% hit rate.
The most Pro Bowl players
The highest hit rate does not necessarily mean a team had the most Pro Bowl players. It certainly helps, though, and five of the six franchises that had the highest hit rates also rank among the top six in total Pro Bowl linemen drafted.
Baltimore, Detroit and Dallas led the way with five. Kansas City was next at four. Then, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Green Bay come in with three each. Tampa Bay was the one high hit rate team that did not make the top of the list, but they wound up with two.
Seattle was one of 10 teams to draft only one Pro Bowl lineman. Ironically, it was the very first pick of Schneider’s career, Russell Okung.
Higher picks yield higher quality
There is a significant correlation between when a player was selected and their probability of becoming a Pro Bowl player. Some of that is due to the clear talent that dictates their earlier selection. Some of that is due to the increased opportunity and investment afforded higher draft picks. Players picked in the 5th round or later are not guaranteed to make the team, let alone get practice and game snaps. Players picked in the first three rounds can struggle for a season or two and still get ample opportunity to find their footing.
Offensive linemen are no different. Nearly two-thirds (62.3%) of Pro Bowl linemen drafted since 2010 were picked in the first 50 picks of the draft. Almost all (87.9%) were picked in the first 100 picks.
Taking fliers on guys in later rounds may yield some starters, but has very rarely resulted in a big return. The Seahawks lone Pro Bowl offensive lineman was a top ten pick. Over half (50.8%) of all Pro Bowl linemen were selected in the first round. Almost three-quarters (73.4%) were picked in the first two rounds. Willingness to spend you move valuable draft capital on this position plays a large role in determining your probability to find a good one.
Of the six teams with the highest hit rate, five of them ranked among the top half of the league in average pick position spent on offensive linemen.
| Team | Average Draft Pick Used On OL |
| TAM | 72.5 |
| NYJ | 80.1 |
| MIA | 81.6 |
| JAX | 86.2 |
| DET | 90 |
| TEN | 95 |
| NYG | 99.1 |
| ATL | 99.4 |
| NOR | 99.5 |
| CLE | 111.8 |
| LVR | 112.2 |
| KAN | 112.2 |
| HOU | 113 |
| DAL | 113.2 |
| MIN | 113.3 |
| LAC | 114.2 |
| CAR | 114.4 |
| SEA | 115.2 |
| PIT | 119.3 |
| SFO | 121.1 |
| PHI | 121.5 |
| DEN | 122.2 |
| CIN | 123.2 |
| IND | 126 |
| NWE | 127.4 |
| ARI | 130.5 |
| WAS | 131.8 |
| BUF | 132.8 |
| CHI | 133.7 |
| BAL | 134.1 |
| GNB | 134.2 |
| LAR | 135.6 |
Only the Ravens rank near the bottom. When Tampa Bay spends a pick on an offensive lineman, it is going to be a high pick. Their average pick used was 72.5. The fact that Baltimore has one of the lowest average picks used while being in the top six in hit rate speaks highly of their scouting and development of the position.
Trying to be like Baltimore seems a tougher path to follow. Spending higher picks is something any franchise can do. The fact that a team like the Jets has the second-highest average selection and has a 0% hit rate illustrates that just picking high is not a sufficient strategy.
Volume can help…sort of
If you do not have a good hit rate, it might make sense to make up for it in volume. Draft a bunch of offensive linemen and hope a few hit. Data does not really support that approach. There is almost no correlation between the amount of picks a team spent on offensive linemen and how many Pro Bowl players they got. The r-squared was 0.005, which basically means there was no relationship between volume and finding talent.
Where it can help is a team like Baltimore that spends, on average, lower picks on the position. The Ravens used 21 picks on offensive linemen since 2010, behind only three other franchises. They treat it almost like the quarterback position for other franchises. Baltimore selected at least one offensive lineman every year except for one (2015) over this stretch.
That persistence resulted in one of the “outlier” Pro Bowl players outside of the Top 100. Ryan Jensen was picked in the 6th round, 203rd overall. Every other Ravens Pro Bowl lineman was picked in the first three rounds.
Unfortunately for Seattle, they have been one of the teams that has attempted to make up for a lower hit rate with higher volume without a lot to show for it. The Seahawks were not far behind the Ravens in number of OL selected (20) since 2010.
Implications for Seattle
These results indicate that the Seahawks have made the offensive line a positional priority in the draft, but their ability to identify great players seems suspect. It is important to note that the offensive line coach can have a major influence on whether a draft pick develops into a great player or not.
Seattle has had vastly different offensive line coaches with different philosophies and approaches. Tom Cable loved to teach and preferred players who had not learned bad habits so he could mold them as he saw fit. That led to players like J.R. Sweezy being drafted as a defensive lineman who Cable converted to a guard. That experiment worked and Sweezy was a starter for a Super Bowl team and was a relatively high-priced free agent. There were plenty of times when that approach did not work.
The scouting department does not just pick the players they like best. They are trying to match players to coaches and scheme. That is especially true with offensive line coaches.
There is some solace in this for the Seahawks. When they have used picks in the top 100 on linemen, most have turned into decent players.
- Russell Okung
- Charles Cross
- James Carpenter
- Germain Ifedi
- Ethan Pocic
- Justin Britt
- Damien Lewis
- Abe Lucas
- John Moffitt
- Rees Odhiambo
There are some huge busts on that list, but most were decent starters. Schneider may not like spending high picks on interior offensive linemen, but he has had little luck finding even average starters when drafting them later than the third round.
It is looking like he may be close to having another Pro Bowl player in Cross depending on how the rest of this season goes. Lucas flashed some Pro Bowl upside before hitting some health roadblocks. He is due back in the next few weeks and his outlook will go a long way toward deciding whether this offensive line has a solid foundation to build from or needs to begin anew.
Schneider has shown a willingness to break with his drafting patterns by picking a cornerback, a wide receiver, and a defensive tackle in the first round the last two years after having never picked any of those positions in the first round in previous drafts. He may need to break tradition again to solve the interior offensive line problem and take one in the first round of the 2025 draft.
As of now, it is looking like Seattle once again passed on quality offensive linemen in the 2024 draft. Dominick Puni is a guy taken just a few spots after Seattle chose Christian Haynes, and the Seahawks got a front row seat to how well he is playing when the 49ers ran all over them in week six.
They did go with volume by choosing three linemen in 2024, and one of those later round picks, Mike Jerrell, is due to get his first start in week seven against the Falcons. Nobody would be more thrilled than Seahawks fans if Jerrell or Sataoa Laumea become one of those outlier late-round Pro Bowlers.
More likely, the Seahawks will need to go back to the draft and be willing to spend their most valuable picks on this increasingly challenging position to address.